2023 Orchid Stakes Cheatsheet

By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires.com)

1. VIBURNUM (10-1) – Unraced since mid-December, when she captured an off-the-turf renewal of the Via Borghese S., which was run on the Tapeta; can’t say that field was close to this one in depth, and note she’s struggled to contend in prior graded attempts.

2. MISS YEARWOOD (10-1) – A slow start and a too-short one-mile distance seemingly worked against her in the March 4 Honey Fox (G3), not to mention the layoff and front wraps; however, her race two back in the Jockey Club Oaks (G3), a third behind the classy McKulick, was pretty good, given her relative inexperience on grass and at the class level; capable of better here, and recent bullet breeze was sharp, considering it was around the dogs.

3. TRANSIENT (7-2) – Went down swinging against Personal Best two back, though that rival always appeared to have her measure, and last out she encountered trouble multiple times and was perhaps better than her one-length loss to Euro import Mylady suggested; overall, her form since arriving in the Joseph barn has been rock solid, though seemingly needs a peak effort and regression by the two main players to pull off the mild surprise here.

4. TAMARINDO (20-1) – One of several legitimately long prices here; indeed, she looks very much up against it after failing to place in two of her last three tries against Florida-bred N1X foes; although her style suggests she’ll appreciate additional ground, the class leap looks too significant.

5. AMAZING GRACE (5-2) – Clement has won this race a record seven times, though only once since 2005; brings a very strong candidate for number eight with this German-bred who earned a signature Group 2 win last September; that was book-ended by a narrow loss to German Derby (G1) winner Sammarco in a Group 1 at Munich and a third behind Rebel’s Romance and Sammarco in the Preis von Europa (G1); Rebel’s Romance, of course, went on to score in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1); with form lines like those, she looks the one to beat if she can handle the noticeably quicker ground she’ll encounter here.

6. PERSONAL BEST (3-1) – Although she cut it relatively close by taking the La Prevoyante (G3) by only a neck, the fact is she was looking like the winner for much of the last half-mile, merely waiting for Ortiz to give her the signal to go; her staying form has been outstanding since stretching out beyond 1 1/4 miles last September, and it is obvious Shug has a very nice long-distance turf filly on his hands; imposing as a repeat prospect here.

7. LADY ARSINOE (20-1) – Odd for barn to place their stock in such a difficult spot, but that’s the best description for a filly who made no impression in either of her last two starts facing N2X allowance company; connections perhaps hoping race falls apart and they get lucky snaring a black-type placing, but that seems a tall order on paper.

8. ATOMIC BLONDE (7-2) – The second of Clement’s two German-bred raiders is not as consistent; outrun by Amazing Grace in the Group 2 Baden-Baden, she later went on to score in a Group 3 in Milan, albeit over soft ground; if that’s the kind of ground she excels on, she’s won’t find it here after a very dry winter around Gulfstream; can certainly snag a share, but others preferred on top.