2022 Cotillion Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content

By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires.com)

1. GREEN UP (6-1) – The first of three from Pletcher is undefeated in four starts since joining the stable, all of them comfortable wins; most impressive scorching her rivals in last month’s Cathryn Sophia S. over this track, in which she easily beat the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and Indiana Oaks (G3) winner; aside from the possibility of a letdown following a peak effort, she enters with few if any serious negatives; dangerous.

2. ADARE MANOR (7-2) – A physically big sort, she waltzed in the Las Virgenes (G3) before dropping two races — the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) and Black-Eyed Susan — she was widely expected to win; the collateral form has held up in the interim and she’s been working spectacularly for this comeback, but does face some other speed here and the price probably not going to overly enticing on a filly that arguably still has something to prove at this level.

3. GODDESS OF FIRE (5-1) – Outran expectations in the Alabama (G1), finishing a distant third behind stablemate Nest when adding blinkers; there has been an occasional disappoint during her career, but in general she’s been a fairly reliable check-getter; however, she hasn’t yet broken through at the stakes level and is the only one in the field still eligible for a first-level allowance; fodder for the lower rungs of the exotics.

4. BEACH DAZE (30-1) – A distant second behind Morning Matcha in her lone previous stakes attempt, and that returning rival will be a longshot to place against this kind; victories against state-bred N1X rivals typically not a path to success in G1s like this; pass.

5. GERRYMANDER (8-1) – Looked really good winning the Mother Goose (G2), which makes her no-show in the Alabama a bit of a head scratcher; that was a big jump up in distance, however, and the cutback to 1 1/16 miles should work in her favor; that said, she’s been a bit of an inconsistent sort this season and her real two-turn ability is still to be determined.

6. SECRET OATH (2-1) – Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner gets out of the shadow of division leader Nest here after back-to-back losses at the Spa; a clear second in both the CCA Oaks (G1) and Alabama, she’s the obvious class in this, and don’t forget she possesses a terrific turn of foot to get herself into contention when called upon; the downside is that she’s had a relatively long season already and hasn’t really built on that Churchill success; potentially vulnerable.

7. SHAHAMA (8-1) – Has shown notable progression since arriving from Dubai, putting it all together last time in the Monmouth Oaks (G3); seemingly a better filly now than what we saw in the Kentucky Oaks, the gap between her and Secret Oath has probably lessened; the improved tactical foot she’s shown in her last couple also a positive, and she could potentially work out a great trip sitting behind the speed; things to like at the price.

8. MORNING MATCHA (15-1) – Although 4-for-5 over this track, that one loss was a 10-length beating from Green Up in the Cathryn Sophia; her prior attempts against graded company haven’t been much better; hard to endorse from a class perspective.

9. SOCIETY (8-1) – Made short work of lesser company in the two-turn, seven-furlong Charles Town Oaks (G3) last time, and now steps back up in distance while other speed is drawn to her inside; lone setback, in the CCA Oaks, perhaps not a true bill, given her stumbling start, though it might be closer than not to accurate against this kind of company; must avoid bounce off a career-best effort.