2022 Bet On Sunshine Stakes Cheatsheat
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content
By Vance Hanson (TwinSpires.com)
1. KAVOD (10-1) – Stakes veteran hit a peak with a strong N2X allowance score here in September; although his 16-4-2-0 career mark suggests he’s not a consistently reliable wagering proposition, keep in mind most of those losses occurred at higher levels and at distances beyond what he’s capable of; has posted several fast half-mile works since his last start and, as a three-year-old, remains with some upside as long as he’s kept sprinting.
2. TOP GUNNER (10-1) – Although he missed by only a half-length in the Phoenix (G2), that was not one of the better renewals of the race in recent years, and the form of it was not franked in the Breeders’ Cup; appears as if he peaked this season last spring, when he eked out an allowance win at Oaklawn and followed up in a restricted stake over this track and distance; find others more attractive.
3. SURVEILLANCE (20-1) – Hard knocker has won or placed in eight of nine starts this term, the only exception being a strong fourth in the Commonwealth (G3) in April; gutsy try last time when showing rare early foot, and just wound up missing by a head to O Besos, a respectable fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) last week; main knocks are that he’s winless since March and is 0-for-7 over the Churchill strip.
4. BANGO (3-1) – Has won eight of 15 over this track and, when he does fire, tends to pay a premium; form has been a bit uneven this season and he was fourth in this event last year when perhaps a bit over the top, but he’s run so many good ones over the strip in the past that he’s hard to leave out of the equation at any price; near-bullet breeze earlier this month suggests he’s coming in good.
5. LONG RANGE TODDY (12-1) – Enters off back-to-back bullet works and a near-miss in the aforementioned Phoenix, which wasn’t a strong race this year; the obvious knock is the win-shy nature of this former class runner; you have to go all the way back to March 2019 to find him in the winner’s circle, following a division of the Rebel (G2) in which he upset future older male champion Improbable; that’s 25 losses in a row; seems best used underneath in vertical exotic plans, if it all.
6. TORONTOTORO (20-1) – Wasn’t beaten by much against N3X foes in his only other try here, but this all-or-nothing type looks several cuts below from a class perspective; finished midpack in his only recent stakes try at Colonial, and has largely competitive in softer allowance spots at Mountaineer and Indianapolis.
7. MUCHO (6-1) – Seemingly rounding back into better form after missing six months of action this year; recent drills have been fairly swift, so he could be sitting on a good one, and note he missed by a head in this event last season as the favorite; presumably will offer a better price this time, and addition of Saez adds to his appeal as a serious stalk-and-pounce candidate.
8. WILLISTON WAY (20-1) – One of the more capable, higher-end sprinters up at Mountaineer and Thistledown, but this represents a not-insignificant hike in class; only prior try over this track was decent, a half-length loss to Mucho in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance two years ago, so he could put up an unexpectedly strong run, especially if speed is holding up; however, gut thinks he’s more likely to be a pace casualty against this tougher crew.
9. MILES AHEAD (7-2) – Grade 3 veteran produced a big effort off the bench in his debut for McGee in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society S. on Sept. 17; certainly aided by a hot pace that day, and good try two back against Breeders’ Cup winner Aloha West also aided by a sub :45 half-mile; if he can get that kind of help again up front, he’ll figure, and perhaps conditions will allow that to happen with freezing temperatures lingering in the area this weekend.
10. SIBELIUS (5-2) – Raced a little wide in the Phoenix and didn’t have the kick many expected him to have as the 7-5 favorite; simply might have bounced a bit off of two big wins at Saratoga and Pimlico, and being outrun to the lead or pressing position did him no favors; eligible to bounce back and will break outside the other front runners in this spot, but concedes prior experience over a surface some horses do not grasp at first asking; underlay again?