2021 Regret Stakes Cheatsheet
By TwinSpires Editorial Team, Sponsored Content

by Vance Hanson (TwinSpires.com)

1. OYSTER BAY (6-1) was bred to be a good one, and perhaps will be longer term over the 11-to-12-furlong trips her dam enjoyed most. Precocious enough, though, to win her first two, but so far has settled for minor shares in two stakes appearances. Third in the Florida Oaks (G3) was solid, but last time she flattened out after rallying into a slow pace in the Memories of Silver S. at Aqueduct. That race’s winner, Bubbles on Ice, didn’t flatter the form when unplaced in the May 15 Hilltop S. at Pimlico as the favorite. The pace might not be especially strong here, either, but the added distance should continue to suit.

2. MUNNYFOR RO (12-1) had to rally from farther back than both Gam’s Mission and Flown in the allowance prep, and a good try overall to miss by a length to the former. Beat a next-out graduate at Keeneland two back, a promising development after starting the campaign with a loss in the main claiming ranks. Remains with upside, but with arguably less than her more lightly-raced rivals with stakes experience.

3. LINE DANCING (12-1) was outrun by both Gift List and returning rival Barista in the Edgewood (G2) earlier this month, though managed to beat heavy favorite Aunt Pearl to the finish. Exceeded pari-mutuel expectations both there and in the season-opening Sanibel Island S. at Gulfstream, and so far it appears she prefers firmer ground. That might be an iffy proposition given the Friday forecast, but in any event she’ll need to find a bit more to win this.

4. SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR (5-2) had the most successful juvenile campaign of any of these, but has been a hard-luck horse so far this term. Clearly best in the Herecomesthebride (G3), but was set down for an infraction approaching the far turn. Last-out run in the Appalachian looks like a toss-out; a troubled beginning found her farther off the lead than usual, and it was a false pace she wound up chasing. Clearly capable of much better and looms the one to beat from a class perspective.

5. BARISTA (5-1) virtually inherited place honors in the Edgewood when second choice Gift List ran away with it and heavy favorite Aunt Pearl showed nothing in taking her first career loss. Has so far run her best races over this course and enjoys a little cut in the ground, which she might get here. Still a touch inconsistent for our tastes and arguably a stronger threat for another minor share, rather than for the win.

6. POSTNUP (12-1) showed none of the positional speed she possesses in the Edgewood, and it proved a rather dull effort all around. Nonetheless, she probably ran her race regardless and simply wasn’t good enough. We might see more from her early this time, given the limited amount of other speed, but she’s been outrun by a number of these already so far and thus looks a cut or two below the leading players.

7. GAM’S MISSION (5-1) looms as trainer DeVaux’s stronger candidate. Second best to 2020 division leader Aunt Pearl in her debut here last September, she’s rewarded backers nicely when narrowly taking a maiden and an allowance this spring. The maiden win at Fair Grounds came at the expense of a next-out graduate, and she again meets some of her vanquished foes from the May 8 allowance again. Granddaughter of Grade 1 winner Auntie Mame looks a solid prospect stepping up to graded company while sporting the famed Gerry colors worn by Hall of Fame great Forego.

8. FLOWN (9-2), like others, found herself negatively impacted by the slow pace of the Appalachian. But she was a longshot there and it ultimately proved a useful tune-up for her most recent run, in which she was narrowly denied by Gam’s Mission after that rival got first run. Stakes-placed as a maiden and Walsh barn winning at a strong 29% clip this meet, so she fits on the step back up in class. The extra sixteenth-mile will work to her advantage even if the potential pace scenario might not.

9. SARANYA (5-1) has tended to race prominently when handled by Geroux, but it didn’t quite work out in the Appalachian (G2) when Jouster ran the field off their feet. She retreated late to fourth, behind eventual Edgewood winner Gift List and the classy Plum Ali. Perhaps would be more effective closing from farther back, like she did later in the Fair Grounds meet, but with so little other speed here Geroux might wisely opt to continue with the usual strategy. Ran well here in her only previous try on this course, and this field considerably softer than the crew she faced at Keeneland.