What Wins the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies?

Level: Intermediate

By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder

Updated for 2018

As we’ve mentioned before in our post on handicapping first-time starters, handicapping juvenile races can be quite daunting. Although as the year progresses running styles, strengths and weakness start to emerge, making it a bit easier to suss out a race. But quick form reversals, sudden improvements or unintended “learning new tricks” come with the territory in juvenile races.

Given that the Breeders’ Cup has a 32 year history and makes charts for every race available at their Stats site, we decided to see if we could learn anything that could supplement the more traditional handicapping angles. So, instead of focusing on running style, pedigree or trainer angles we looked at factors related to how each winner came into the race to see what, if any, patterns emerged.

To do this we compiled some basic data about each winner using the charts, available at the Breeders’ Cup Stats site and information from each winner’s profile at Equibase. Here are the data points we collected for winners of the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies:

Datapoint	Description
Year of the Race	Year the race was run
Prior Race Track	The track where the final prep took place
Prior Race	The race that was the final prep
Finish Position	Where the Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies winner finished in their final prep
Winner	Winner’s name
Sire	Winner’s Sire
Dam	Winner’s Dam
Damsire	Sire of winner’s Dam
$1 Odds	Final odds as listed in the chart
$2 Payout	Win payout
Favorite	Was the winner the favorite (y/n)
Choice	What choice was the winner (favorite = 1, second favorite = 2)
# Starters	Number of horses that started in the race
# Prior Starts	The number of times winner raced prior to the Breeders’ Cup
Graded Stakes Start	Had the winner made a start in a graded stakes prior to the Breeders’ Cup (y/n)
Graded Stakes Win	Had the winner won at least one graded stakes prior to the Breeders’ Cup (y/n)
Undefeated	Did the winner come into the race undefeated (y/n)

Data available via Google Spreadsheets: Juvenile | Juvenile Fillies

NOTE: We’ve updated this post to use interactive charts, you can hover over or touch any of the bars to get more information.

Since the Breeders’ Cup has only only been run since 1984 it was fairly easy to compile information for every running, and while it’s a small sample size, it’s also a complete sample. Using the collected information here’s what we discovered…

Finish position in prior race matters

The most pronounced angle we discovered was finish position in prior race for both the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies. Regardless of whether the race was a Grade 1, an allowance or even a maiden special weight, no winner of the Juvenile has finished worse than 4th in his prior race. A notable 22 winners (64.7%) won their race prior to the Juvenile.

You can hover over or touch the chart bars for that year’s winner and finish position in his prior race.

The “no worse than 4th” angle held true for the Juvenile Fillies until 2013 when winner Ria Antonia came out of a 5th place finish in the Frizette. The 2014 winner Take Charge Brandi finished 8th in the Alcibiades. There were 21 last out winners (61.8%) for the Juvenile Fillles.

You can hover over or touch the chart bars for that year’s winner and finish position in her prior race.

Is a graded win or even a graded race needed?

While there have been winners that did not win, or even run, in a graded race in both the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies, it’s certainly a benefit, more so for the Juvenile Fillies.

In the Juvenile a notable 85.2% of winners, all but five, had made at least one graded stakes start while 55.8% of all winners had won at least one graded stakes race.

As for the Juvenile Fillies only one winner did not make a prior graded start, 2010 winner and eventual Eclipse champion Awesome Feather, who had made several non-graded state-bred stakes starts and came into the race undefeated. Juvenile Fillies winners also had a slightly higher incidence of a prior graded win at 64.7%.

Races and tracks that produced the most winners

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Belmont and Santa Anita, and their graded preps, produce the most winners.

Santa Anita and Belmont have each produced nine Juvenile winners. All of the Belmont winners came out of the Champagne while Santa Anita had an allowance and a maiden special weight winner in addition to the seven FrontRunner (previously known as the Norfolk) winners.

Of the top three races that produced Juvenile winners, here’s how the finish position breaks out…

Winners from a maiden special weight = Action This Day (2003), New Years Day (2013)
Winner from an allowance = Brocco (1993)

Four winners of the Juvenile have come from international races – Arazi (1991), Johannesburg (2001), Wilco (2004), Vale of York (2009)

As for the Juvenile Fillies, Belmont had much more of an edge producing 12 winners (11 from the Frizette and one from the Matron). Keeneland produced six winners and Santa Anita produced seven winners. All but one winner from Santa Anita won the Oak Leaf/Chandelier, 2016 winner Champagne Room finished 4th in the Chandelier.

Of the top three races that produced Juvenile Fillies winners, here’s how the finish position breaks out…

There have been no winners to come out of a maiden special weight. Beholder (2012) and Oustandingly (1984) were the two winners to come out of allowance races. Both had a 2nd place finish in a graded stakes prior to their allowance prep.

A few other observations: Del Mar has produced a few winners (two in the Juvenile and one in the Juvenile Fillies) but no winner in either race has come directly from Saratoga. Unlike the Juvenile, the Juvenile Fillies has not had any winners come directly from international races.

Odds, number prior of starts and favorite/choice

The average $1 odds for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners since 1984 is $7.60 with a median of $4.30. The average $2 payout is $17.30 with a median of $10.60. Since 2000 those numbers have been creeping up to an average $2 payout of $22.40 and median of $15.40. You can hover over or touch the chart bars for that year’s winner with $1 odds and $2 payout.

While number of prior starts didn’t yield any strong patterns, there were still some interesting observations and one can see how training styles have changed over the years. For example, the average number of starts for the Juvenile from 1984-1999 was 4.87 with only two starters making two prior starts (Brocco in 1993 and Unbridled’s Song in 1995). Between 2000-2017 the average number of starts was down to 3.7 with five winners making only two prior starts (2003, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2017).

And how did favorites do? It’s generally accepted that favorites win 35% of the time, and that’s roughly the percent of favorites that have won the Juvenile (32.4%). On average the betting public has the made the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile the 3rd choice.

The average $1 odds for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winners since 1984 is $10.10 with a median of $2.40. The average $2 payout is $22.20 with a median of $6.80. Since 2000 the median payout increased slightly to $6.80 for the $2 payout with the average ballooning to $27.80. Aside from the occasional bomb, the Juvenile Fillies is on balance a more formful race than the Juvenile. You can hover over or touch the chart bars for that year’s winner with $1 odds and $2 payout.

For the Juvenile Fillies prior starts ranged from 2-7 with an average of 4.12. It’s also interesting to note that only two Juvenile Fillies winners had made only two prior starts as compared to seven Juvenile winners. 2007 Juvenile Fillies winner Indian Blessing only made two prior starts, but she had other positives — a win in the Frizette and going off as the favorite. 2017 winner Caledonia Road also made only two prior starts, including coming in off a 2nd in the Frizette.

Favorites in the Juvenile Fillies favorites fared higher than average winning 52.9% of the time. Just like the Juvenile, on average the betting public has the made the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies the 3rd choice. Two winners, Caressing (2000) and Take Charge Brandi (2014) where the longest shots on the board.

Santa Anita Years

There have been nine runnings at Santa Anita (1986, 1993, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016).

Five winners of the Juvenile hosted at Santa Anita (55.5%) made their prior start at Santa Anita. Winners Vale of York (2009), Shanghai Bobby (2012), New Year’s Day (2013) and Classic Empire (2016) did not make any prior starts at Santa Anita.

Five winners of the Juvenile Fillies hosted at Santa Anita (55.5%) also made their prior start at Santa Anita. Winners Brave Raj (1986), She Be Wild (2009), Ria Antonia (2013) and Take Charge Brandi (2014) did not make any prior starts at Santa Anita, and all paid over $10 to win.

Wrap up and Implications for 2018

We took a pretty straight forward look at the data, and certainly any statisticians or data scientists among you could probably come up with additional insights.

How can you use this information? As with all handicapping, it’s up to you decide how usable the information is and how much weight you want to assign to it relative to other angles. It’s also good to keep in mind that nothing is written in stone, 2014 Juvenile Fillies winner Take Charge Brandi is a great example of an outlier, coming in on a 8th place finish with no graded wins.

The 2017, 2016 and 2015 winners were true to form with regard to these angles, how will the 2018 winners compare?

2018 Juvenile Entries

We’ve highlighted those that meet all the positive criteria as well as those who meet two or less of the positive criteria. Here are some additional observations…

Knicks Go = winner of the Breeders’ Futurity
Complexity = winner of the Champagne
Game Winner = winner of the FrontRunner

2018 Juvenile Fillies Entries

We’ve highlighted those that meet all the positive criteria as well as those who meet two or less of the positive criteria. Here are some additional observations…

Restless Rider = winner of the Alcibiades
Bellafina = winner of the Chandelier
Jaywalk = winner of the Frizette

2017 Juvenile Entries

We’ve highlighted those that meet all the positive criteria as well as those who meet two or less of the positive criteria. Here are some additional observations…

Free Drop Billy = winner of the Breeders’ Futurity
Firenze Fire = winner of the Champagne
Bolt d’Oro = winner of the FrontRunner

U S Flag ticks all but one box, he and Golden Dragon are making their debut on dirt.
Bolt d’Oro and The Tabulator are undefeated.

Good Magic was the winner, Bolt d’Oro finished 3rd and Firenze Fire finished 7th.

2017 Juvenile Fillies Entries

We’ve highlighted those that meet all the positive criteria as well as those who meet two or less of the positive criteria. Here are some additional observations…

Heavenly Love = winner of the Alcibiades
Moonshine Memories = winner of the Chandelier
Separationofpowers = winner of the Frizette

Wonder Gadot ticks all but one box and will be making her dirt debut.
Moonshine Memories is undefeated.

Caledonia Road was the winner, Separationofpowers finished 4th, Moonshine Memories finished 7th and Heavenly Love finished 11th.

2016 Juvenile Contenders Scorecard

Surprisingly no contenders ticked all the boxes. Classic Empire, Gormley, Klimt and Practical Joke came the closest meeting six out of seven of the criteria. FrontRunner winner Gormley has only raced twice while Klimt finished 2nd in the FrontRunner. Champagne winner Practical Joke and Breeders’ Futurity winner Classic Empire have not raced at Santa Anita.

There are a few other items of note. Unlike last year, none of the contenders only ticked two boxes, and not only did none of the contenders finish worse than 4th, none of them finished worse the 2nd with 7 of the 11 (63.6%) winning their prior start.

Winners of the top three preps

Classic Empire = winner of the Breeders’ Futurity – 2016 Winner
Practical Joke = winner of the Champagne
Gormley = winner of the FrontRunner

2016 Juvenile Fillies Contenders Scorecard

Only Chandelier winner Noted and Quoted met all the positive criteria while only Valadorna met only two criteria. No one finished worse than 4th and 8 of 12 contenders (66.6%) won last out.

Yellow Agate = winner of the Frizette
Noted and Quoted = winner of the Chandelier

Champagne Room, who finished 4th in the Chandelier last out, is the 2016 winner.

2015 Juvenile Contenders Scorecard

We’ve highlighted those that meet all the positive criteria as well as those who meet two or less of the positive criteria. Here are some additional observations…

Brody’s Cause = winner of the Breeders’ Futurity
Greenpointcrusader = winner of the Champagne
Nyquist = winner of the FrontRunner – 2015 Winner

Ralis, who ticks several positive boxes, finished 5th in the Champagne. He would be the first Juvenile winner to finish worse than 4th in his prior race.

Waterloo Bridge (IRE) is making his first U.S. start and has made six career starts.

#8 Tale of S’avall is scratched

2015 Juvenile Fillies Contenders Scorecard

We’ve highlighted those that meet all the positive criteria as well as those who meet two or less of the positive criteria. Here are some additional observations…

Nickname = winner of the Frizette
Songbird = winner of the Chandelier – 2015 Winner

Rachel’s Valentina and Tap to It all made their last starts at Saratoga and only have two prior races.

As always, good luck, have fun and cash plenty of tickets. Also, go grab this data!

View Juvenile Data
View Juvenile Fillies Data