The Major Prep Factor

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby

Level: Intermediate

By Kevin Martin, Hello Race Fans Contributing Editor

updated for 2019

The Kentucky Derby is one of the most over-analyzed events on the racing calendar. There is no shortage of angles to take into account when putting together your wagering for the big day, and some of the most effective “systems” are those that take into account multiple angles. The strike system created by HRTV racing analyst Jon White (2019 version) takes into account many factors to find a winner on the big day.

In 2005, based on his strike system, White selected Closing Argument at 71-1. He finished a close second to another longshot, Giacomo. In 2009, his strike system did him no favors when Mine That Bird hit the wire first. Like all systems based in logic, this one goes out the window when a colt shipping in from New Mexico – winless in two starts as a 3-year-old – wins the big race at Churchill. However, the second through fifth place finishers that year all ranked high in White’s system. In racing, even when you are wrong, you can be right. Unfortunately, you don’t always get paid for good handicapping.

From an historical perspective, one of the most reliable angles can be found in the results of the four major prep races. Of the 65) winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1952, 50 (76.9%) finished in the top three in either the Florida Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial, or Santa Anita Derby. Of the last 65 Derby winners, 24 (36.9%) have finished first in one of these prep races.

The change to a synthetic racing surface at Keeneland and the enhanced stature of the Arkansas Derby had some questioning the importance of the big four. However, the reliability of this angle has only been off slightly since 2000, and Keeneland has returned to dirt as of 2015. Twelve of the 18 winners this century have finished in the top three in one of the four major preps. Nine colts have won one of these preps before winning on the first Saturday in May.

It’s hard to believe that it has been over 10 years since a colt that finished in the top three of the Wood Memorial has done the same in the Kentucky Derby. In 2003, Empire Maker and Funny Cide finished first and second in both but the Wood runners have done nothing in the Derby since.

2019 Kentucky Derby
Potential Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2018 Kentucky Derby
Potential Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2017 Kentucky Derby
Potential Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2017 Kentucky Derby Chart

2016 Kentucky Derby
Potential Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2016 Kentucky Derby Chart

2015 Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2015 Kentucky Derby Chart

2014 Kentucky Derby
Potential Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2014 Kentucky Derby Chart

2013 Kentucky Derby
Potential Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2013 Kentucky Derby Chart

2012 Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2012 Kentucky Derby Chart

2011 Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2011 Kentucky Derby Chart

2010 Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby starters who finished in the top three of the major preps:

2010 Kentucky Derby Chart

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View spreadsheet of top three finishers in the major preps going back to 1952