Big race days are fun. Not only because big races tend to be exciting, but because there’s a lot more money in the pools than on a regular race day. And why is this fun? Because it means your garden variety exotic payout is going to be higher… and potentially much higher!
For example, the 2009 Kentucky Derby trifecta paid $41,500.60! This is the kind of thing that motivates me to 1) play exotics and 2) include longshots. So, what are some ways that you can try to have some fun with exotics on a big race day? Let’s explore some options.
Decide Who You Like
The first thing I try to decide is which horses I like, not only who I think will/can win (and that might be more than one horse), but who could be be in the money… and when I say who, I mean who at a decent price. Do I think that the pace will fall apart and that crazy 20-1 shot closer could clunk up for third or fourth? Do I think that the crazy longshot front-runner could hold on for a piece of the action? Or do I think that a combo platter of nice 8-1 to 15-1 shots have a reasonable chance of being in the money?
Depending on what I decide, here are the approaches I take. Some of them are in my regular rotation and some I only really use on big race days.
Boxes are not only for shoes
If I really like a couple of horses I’m going to box. This is an angle I always play. A $2 three-horse exacta box is $12 and a three-horse $2 trifecta box is $12. If you played both for $24 and you hit at least one of them, you’re more than likely not only to cover your bet but make a little something… and in the case of the Derby, you might make a whole lot more than a little something. This is an easy way to take a shot at some nice returns. You can also do these as $1 wagers to cut the price (and payout) in half… better to be in the action than not at all!
Another good strategy with exactas is playing strategic combinations for higher amounts. I’m fan of this approach as well, especially on a big day. For example, let’s say you like two horses a lot and two horses a little. You could do a $5 or $10 exacta box of the two you like and then put the two you kind of like underneath the two you really like. It would look something like this where 1 & 2 are the ones you like more and 3 & 4 are the ones you like a little.
$5 exacta box of 1 & 2 = $10
$2 exacta of 1,2/3,4 = $8
$2 trifecta of 1,2/1,2/3,4 = $8
Total = $26
For roughly the same cost as boxing you can back a stronger opinion about two horses and still include some horses you might have a good feeling about. And if those horses are a decent price you could end up with a nice little score!
There’s a reason the word “super” is included
I had a lengthy section about all the fun and coverage you could do with dime superfectas, but a colleague pointed out that the minimum superfecta wager on Oaks and Derby day is $1, so I’ll publish the dime super discourse on another day. Until then, here’s a couple of ways you could inexpensively play a $1 superfecta if you liked four or more horses:
$1 superfecta of 1/2,3,4/2,3,4/2,3,4 = $6
One horse over three others add a fourth horse and make $24.
$1 superfecta of 1/2,3,4/2,3,4/2,3,4,5 = $12
One horse over three others + an extra horse in the fourth position
$1 superfecta of 1/2,3/2,3,4,5/4,5,6,7 = $20
1 x 2 x 4 x 5
Considering that the $1 superfecta in the Kentucky Oaks paid $2,050.20 with an overwhelming favorite on top, it might worth considering this approach if it fits with your selections!
Casting a wide trifecta net
Here’s one I only ever do on big race days. The final execution depends on how many horses I like to win and how many horses I think have a shot at being in the money but for the sake of example I’ll do two scenarios.
One horse to win, two in the second position and everyone else in on bottom:
$1 trifecta 1x2x17 = $38
I call this one swimming with my mouth open. I’d have to feel pretty darn strong about the the order of the top three AND the odds of either the top or second two would have to include some higher prices but if your selections indicate it, this could be an affordable way to shoot for the moon.
Two horses on top, five horses in second and seven in the third.
$1 trifecta 2x5x7 = $40
I’m more likely to take this kind of approach with two on top and less on the bottom. Churchill is making up for no dime supers with .50 trifectas and Pick 3s, you could cut your price in half with either of these approaches!
If you’d like to take advantage of the .50 Pick 3s, be sure to check out Kevin Martin’s excellent piece on simple and effective strategies for multi-race exotics. And if you like to stick to the basics, check out the also helpful Finding Value in the Basics and Longshots Across the Board.
But enough about what I think… I asked the HRF crew to share their Kentucky Derby wagering strategy with you, our beloved readers. Here’s what they had to say.
Chris Rossi
I try to approach betting the Derby like any other race, but of course, that’s impossible. One thing I have held fast to in the past is gauging my confidence in my plays. This year, I don’t have a particularly strong opinion of the race, so I’ll scatter around the trifectas and exactas with a mix of those whom I think will run well. I’ll be treading lightly in the win, place and show pools. Despite there being some value there, I expect no horse to go off too far above 50-1, and I find that to be tremendously absurd considering that it’s a 20-horse field. I’ll also wait until the very last minute to see the post parade for some last minute advice.
Kevin Martin
My Derby wagering usually consists of a few exacta tickets, a win bet, and pick three tickets ending in the Derby. This year’s edition of the big race is a real crap shoot. Even so, the Derby is a race that, as a horse player, you are obligated play (not that my arm is being twisted). While I don’t play with a big bankroll, the Derby is the one race where I go a little overboard (relatively speaking). As it stands now, my plan is to play an exacta with Super Saver, Paddy O’Prado, and Devil May Care in the win slot with those three and four or five others underneath. Where I put my win money will depend on how my top choices look in the post parade and who has the tastiest odds as post-time approaches. My total investment, including pick three tickets ending on the Derby, will be in the $50 to $70 range.
Lisa Grimm
I probably should not admit it, but I leave the track with the most money by doing simple $2 WPS bets – and I’ll be doing a few for the Derby. I also like exacta and trifecta boxes, although I usually stick to a $1 investment for those. For the big races, I’ll go for the dime superfecta (when offered), but it will be mixed in with a few of the above options.
Valerie Grash
As much as I try not to get caught up in the various angles and comments others put out there about the Kentucky Derby, I inevitably end up over-analyzing the race, and by post time, my brain is usually complete mush. But why should the Derby be different from any other race? It shouldn’t, so this year I’ve decided to go back to the basics, not fall into the trap of listening to other folks’ opinions too much, and simply rely on my own analysis. Doing this a few days out from Derby day, and sticking with it, will save my sanity! Sure, I may make a last-minute $2 WPS “saver” bet on a horse that just looks sharp in the post parade, but for the most part, by Derby day I’ve already made up my mind.
Definitely love the $1 exacta wheeling several horses, but personally, I never anchor a bet around a specific horse winning. I’ll also play a couple $1 trifectas. Some bets will be based solely on which horse I think can get the distance, and a few will be “gut” choices. There’s something to be said for intuition, and even for sentimentality, so a couple $2 WPS bets will be on those. Oh, and I’ll play a $1 trifecta box with 1-3-7-13, since that’s my birthday!
Adam Wiener
It’s always puzzling to me that the one race the general public pays attention to every year is the one which, in most cases, is the most difficult to handicap all year for even the best horse players. The Kentucky Derby, however, offers an excellent opportunity to play Longshots Across the Board, since there are plenty of horses from which to choose! I’ll be placing a bunch of WPS bets and a fair number of exactas and trifectas. This year is one of the toughest in recent memory, with the only true stand-outs having either dropped out (Eskendereya) or having drawn the very difficult #1 post position (Lookin at Lucky). I’ll be mixing the exotics recipe with equal portions of Ice Box, American Lion, Super Saver and Dean’s Kitten (all of which I think can win this), and maybe a dash of Mission Impazible thrown in underneath.
