Stakes Profile: Travers
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Travers is a 10 furlong race for 3-year-olds at Saratoga. First run in 1864, it’s also known as the Mid-Summer Derby.
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Travers winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet Speed Figures.
The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Travers Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
2012 dead heat winner Golden Ticket has been excluded from the Odds graph as an outlier at $1 odd of $33.50 to allow for an overall better visualization, but is included in the averages and medians.
Average $1 Odds: $6.10
Median $1 Odds: $4.00
Average $1 Odds: $11.50
Median $1 Odds: $8.30
Average $2 Win: $12.70
Median $2 Win: $10.00
Average $2 Win: $20.50
Median $2 Win: $18.70
Travers Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Corporate Report was 5th choice in a six horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information
Average Choice of Winner: 3.28
Average Field Size: 8.71
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.86
Average Choice of Winner: 4.25
Average Field Size: 10.45
Average Favorite Finish Position: 6.11
Winning Travers Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 2014 winner V.E. Day was 14.5 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Since 1991 stalker/pressers, or horses that have sat within 3 lengths of the leader, have won the Travers 57.1% of the time. This trend has roughly continued for the past ten years with stalker/pressers winning 40% of the time. We’ve counted 2012 dead heat winners Alpha and Golden Ticket as one for running style counts as they had the same running style.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Travers Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018
Winners have come mostly from Saratoga in the time period but in the last 10 years California tracks and Monmouth Park shippers have performed well.
Average Days Since Last Race: 32.21
Median Days Since Last Race: 27
Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Just over half of Travers winners won their prior race and all but one finished in the money last out.
Travers Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Travers winner, and includes the winning figure for the Travers. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Travers, the line starts with most recent.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 107
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 103
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 101
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 98
The last ten years have been evenly split between winners who came in on a regressed or improved Brisnet Speed Rating.
Since 1991 the Travers has transitioned from a relatively formful race to a place to find a good price.
The average winning odds since 1991 are 6.1-1 with a median of 4-1 and an average $2 win payout of $12.70. Since 2010 the averages and medians have dramatically increased to odds of 11.5-1 with a median of 8.3-1 with a an average $2 win payout of $20.50.
Favorites have unperformed the generally accepted win rate of 35% to win 27.6% of the time since 1991 and only 20% in the last 10 years.
The winner on average has been the 3rd choice (3.28) since 1991 and has jumped up to 4th (4.25) since 2010. The favorite has an average finish position of 3rd (3.86) since 1991. The average favorite finish position has dropped to 6th (6.11) since 2010.
Stalkers/Pressers have performed best since 1991 winning 57.1% of the time. This trend has roughly continued in the past ten years with stalker/pressers winning 40% of the time.
Winners have predominately come from Saratoga since 1991 but in the last 10 years California tracks and Monmouth Park shippers have performed well. Field size has been slightly above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 8.71 starters since 1991 and jumped to an average of 10.45 starters since 2010.
A majority of winners came in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating from their prior race since 1991.