Stakes Profile: San Clemente Stakes
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder

The San Clemente is an 8 furlong turf race for 3-year-olds fillies at Del Mar. First run in 1976, it’s currently one of the stakes races featured on Del Mar’s opening weekend. While the San Clemente has predominantly been used as a prep for the Del Mar Oaks, what kind of betting race is it?

Below is a snapshot of what has produced San Clemente winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet Speed Figures.

The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.

All data is via Equibase with the exception of Brisnet ratings.

Note for mobile users: Charts and graphs are best viewed on bigger devices, but viewing them in landscape/horizontally will slightly improve your viewing experience.

San Clemente Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018

Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.

Outlier Sicy d’Alsace (FR) (1998 odds of 41.4-1) has been excluded from the chart below to allow for better overall visualization. She is included in the averages and medians.

1991-2017

Average $1 Odds: $7.00
Median $1 Odds: $5.30

2010-2018
Average $1 Odds: $7.50
Median $1 Odds: $5.90

1991-2017

Average $2 Win: $16.10
Median $2 Win: $12.70

2010-2018
Average $2 Win: $17.00
Median $2 Win: $13.80

San Clemente Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018

Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Flawlessly was 1st choice in a 9 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information

1991-2018

Average Choice of Winner: 3.29
Average Field Size: 9.11
Average Favorite Finish Position: 2.71

2010-2018
Average Choice of Winner: 3.91
Average Field Size: 9.55
Average Favorite Finish Position: 2.56

Winning San Clemente Running Styles 1991-2018

To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.

For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 2000 winner Uncharted Haven (GB) was 13.75 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.

Stalker/pressers have had a slight edge over off-the-pace runners since 1991 but off-the-pace has produced 50% of the last 10 winners.

Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader

Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.

Winning San Clemente Running Styles 1991-1999
Winning San Clemente Running Styles 2000-2009
Winning San Clemente Running Styles 2010-2018

San Clemente Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018

Winners have generally been locals, coming historically from the now closed Hollywood Park. In the last 10 years locals have still had the edge but there’s been an uptick of winners variety of non-California tracks (30%).

Days Since Last Race 1991-2018

Average Days Since Last Race: 46.21
Median Days Since Last Race: 35.5

Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018

Approximately half of San Clemente winners won their prior race and almost three quarters of the winners finished in the money, or no worse than third, last out.

San Clemente Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018

Below is a look at Brisnet speed ratings of San Clemente winners. Learn how the figures are calculated and keep up with weekly ratings for stakes races.

Winners Last Three Brisnet Speed Ratings 1991-2018

The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the San Clemente winner, and includes the winning figure for the San Clemente.

True Flare (1996), Sicy d’Alsace (FR) (1998), and Little Treasure (2002) have been excluded as international shippers with no prior Brisnet Speed Ratings.

Coming into the San Clemente 1991-2018
Brisnet speed ratings - San Clemente
Brisnet Speed Averages 1991-2018
Winning Brisnet Speed: 95
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 92
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 90
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 89

Starters coming in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating have won 50% of the last 10 runnings.

Winners Last Three Brisnet Speed Ratings 2009-2018

Summary

The San Clemente has generally been a formful race where favorites have only slightly underperformed the generally accepted win rate of 35% to win 32.1% of the time since 1991. It’s been a different story over the last 10 years with favorites only winning twice.

Thanks to a fair share of double digit payouts, average winning odds since 1991 are 7-1 with a median of 5.3-1 and an average $16.10 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages have ticked up to 7.5-1 and $17.00 to win with median odds of 5.9-0. Notably 7 of the last 10 winners have paid over $10 to win.

The winner on average has been the 3rd choice (3.29) since 1991 and almost 4th (3.91) choice since 2010. The favorite has an average finish position of 2nd (2.71) since 1991 and 2.56 since 2010.

Stalker/pressers have had a slight edge over off-the-pace runners since 1991 but off-the-pace has produced 50% of the last 10 winners.

Winners have predominately come from California since 1991 and that trend has remained in tact over the last 10 years. However 30% of the last winners made their prior start at a track outside of California. Field size has been well above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 9.11 starters since 1991 and 9.55 starters since 2010.

Winners have come in evenly on improved versus regressed Brisnet Speed Ratings since 1991 but in the last 10 years regressed has had a slight edge with 50% of the winners (versus 40% for improved).

Last Raced
Majority of winners are from California
Running Style
60% of last 10 winners were from off-the-pace
Brisnet Speed Ratings
50% of winners in last 10 years came in on a regressed rating
Favorites
Favorites have a low win % in last 10 years

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