Stakes Profile: Risen Star
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Risen Star is a 8.5 furlong race for 3-year-olds at Fair Grounds. First run in 1973, it’s currently a Kentucky Derby points race. Large fields in 1993 and 1995 resulted in the race being run in two divisions and in 2006 it was run at Louisiana Downs. While the Risen Star hasn’t been the most productive race for Derby hopefuls, what kind of betting race is it?
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Risen Star winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet speed figures.
The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Risen Star Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
2013 winner I’ve Struck a Nerve has been excluded from the graph as an outlier at $1 odd of $135.20 to allow for better overall visualization, but is included in the averages and medians.
Average $1 Odds: $8.80
Median $1 Odds: $2.80
Average $1 Odds: $20.50
Median $1 Odds: $5.00
Average $2 Win: $19.60
Median $2 Win: $7.70
Average $2 Win: $42.80
Median $2 Win: $9.60
Risen Star Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 2017 winner Girvin was 5th choice in an 11 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information
Average Choice of Winner: 2.70
Average Field Size: 9.56
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.5
Average Choice of Winner: 3.55
Average Field Size: 10.87
Average Favorite Finish Position: 4.4
Winning Risen Star Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 2004 winner Gradepoint was 10 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
The Risen Star is generally won by stalkers/pressers, or on-the-pace runners. Off-the-pace runners have also performed well in in the time frame, and in the last 10 years deep closers have won 40% of the time.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Risen Star Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018
The majority of Risen Star winners have come from Fair Grounds since 1991, but 4 of the last 10 winners shipped in from Gulfstream. Winners have generally raced within the last 35.
Average Days Since Last Race: 34.70
Median Days Since Last Race: 28
Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Over half of Risen Star winners won their prior race (63.3%) while most winners finished in the money (86.7%), or no worse than third, last out.
Risen Star Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Risen Star winner, and includes the winning figure for the Risen Star. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Risen Star, the line starts with most recent. For example, the top most line at “2 Races Back” belongs to 2003 winner Badge of Silver, who only has two consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the race.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 99
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 96
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 92
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 90
In the last ten years 60% of the Risen Star winners came in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating, but only 20% of the winners came in on a two race Brisnet Speed Rating improvement.
The Risen Star has generally been a good betting race. The average winning odds since 1991 are 8.8-1 with a median of 2.8-1 and an average $19.60 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages have crept up to around 20.5-1 and $42.80 to win. Medians since 2010 have also crept up to 5-1 and $9.60 to win.
Favorites have underperformed the generally accepted average of 35% win rate, winning only 26.7% of the time since 1991. The winner on average has been the 2nd choice (2.7) since 1991, but like odds and payouts has crept up to 3rd choice since 2010.
Stalkers/Pressers have won 33% of the time and off-the-pace runners have won 30% of the time. Wire-to-wire winners have had the least success since 1991 winning only 13.3% of the time. While closers have a 23.3% win rate since 1991, they’ve won 40% of the time in the last 10 years.
Winners have generally come from Fair Grounds and either won their prior race or ran no worse than 3rd. Field size has been far above the 2017 average of 7.7 with an average of 9.56 starters since 1991 and an average of 10.87 starters since 2010.
A notable 70% of winners came in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating from their prior race.