Stakes Profile: Queen Elizabeth II
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is a 9 furlong turf race for 3-year-olds at Keeneland. First run in 1984, it’s named in honor of the Queen of the United Kingdom and other Commonwealth realms. While the Queen Elizabeth II has produced its fair share of eventual champions and Breeders’ Cup winners, what kind of betting race is it?
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Queen Elizabeth II winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet Speed Figures.
The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Queen Elizabeth II Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
Average $1 Odds: $7.40
Median $1 Odds: $5.00
Average $1 Odds: $5.00
Median $1 Odds: $4.60
Average $2 Win: $16.80
Median $2 Win: $12.00
Average $2 Win: $12.00
Median $2 Win: $8.60
Queen Elizabeth II Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner La Gueriere was 6th choice in a 9 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information.
Average Choice of Winner: 3.82
Average Field Size: 8.79
Average Favorite Finish Position: 4.07
Average Choice of Winner: 2.56
Average Field Size: 8.22
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.33
Winning Queen Elizabeth II Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 2015 winner Kitten’s Dumplings was 10 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
The Queen Elizabeth II is predominantly won by stalkers/pressers, or those who run on or near the pacesetter. That trend has continued over the past 10 years with stalkers winning 40% of the time.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Queen Elizabeth II Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018
The majority of winners have come from Belmont Park since 1991. In the last 10 years Saratoga has sent 40% of the winners while Del Mar has sent 30%. Winners have generally raced within the last 39 days of their prior start.
Average Days Since Last Race: 39.04
Median Days Since Last Race: 37.5
Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Just over half of Queen Elizabeth II winners won their prior race and all but three winners finished in the money, or no worse than third, last out.
Queen Elizabeth II Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Queen Elizabeth II winner, and includes the winning figure for the Queen Elizabeth II. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Queen Elizabeth II, the line starts with most recent.
Ryafan (1997) has been excluded from the charts below as she the did not have any North American starts prior to the QEII.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 98
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 96
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 94
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 92
The majority of Queen Elizabeth II winners have come in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating (64.2%). That trend has continued with 60% of the last 10 winners also coming in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating.
The Queen Elizabeth II has been a great race to play against the favorite.
The average winning odds since 1991 are 7.4-1, exactly the 2017 average of winning odds. The median for winning odds since 1991 are 5-1 and the average $2 win ticket paid $16.80. Since 2010 those numbers have dipped to average odds of 5-1, median odds of 4.6-1 and $12.00 to win.
Favorites have notably unperformed the 2017 average favorite win rate of 37% to win 25% of the time since 1991. They’ve done a little better in the last 10 years, winning 30% of the time.
The winner on average has been almost 4th choice (3.83) since 1991 and has dropped notably to 2.56 since 2010. The favorite has an average finish position of 4th (4.07) since 1991 and 3rd (3.33) since 2010.
Stalkers/Pressers have performed best since 1991 winning 53.5% of the time. This trend has continued in the past ten years with stalker/pressers winning 40% of the time.
Winners have predominately come from Belmont Park since 1991 but have come mostly from Saratoga in the last 10 years. Field size has been slightly above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 8.79 starters since 1991 and 8.22 starters since 2010.
A majority of winners came in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating from their prior race since 1991.