Stakes Profile: Met Mile
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Metopolitan Handicap, also known as the Met Mile, is 8 furlong race for 3-year-olds and up at Belmont Park. First run in 1891, it’s currently a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race. While the Met Mile has produced many champions and Hall of Famers, what kind of betting race is it?
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Met Mile winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet speed figures.
The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Met Mile Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
2001 winner Exciting Story has been excluded from the graph as an outlier at $1 odd of $56.75 to allow for better overall visualization, but is included in the averages and medians.
Average $1 Odds: $6.20
Median $1 Odds: $3.80
Average $1 Odds: $3.10
Median $1 Odds: $3.10
Average $2 Win: $14.40
Median $2 Win: $9.60
Average $2 Win: $8.20
Median $2 Win: $8.20
Met Mile Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner In Excess (IRE) was 2nd choice in a 14 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information.
Average Choice of Winner: 2.89
Average Field Size: 9.5
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.10
Average Choice of Winner: 1.82
Average Field Size: 10
Average Favorite Finish Position: 1.60
Winning Met Mile Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most lines in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the Honor Code (2015) and Sahara Sky (2013) were each 11.25 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
The Met Mile had predominantly been won by stalkers/pressers, or those who are on-the-pace runners, since 1991. Those who sat between 3-6 lengths off the leader also performed reasonably well in the time period. In the last 10 years off-the-pace have had a slight edge, winning 40% of time compared to stalkers (30%) and speed (30%).
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Met Mile Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018
The majority of winners have come from Aqueduct in the time period but Belmont and Churchill have each produced a good amount of winners. In the last 10 years winners have come from a variety of tracks with Belmont producing three wins. On average winners have raced within 46 days, since 2010 that average has crept up to 50.75 days.
Average Days Since Last Race: 45.61
Median Days Since Last Race: 32
Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Just over half of Met Mile winners won their prior race and approximately three quarters of the winners finished in the money, or no worse than third, last out.
Met Mile Winners Age 1991-2018
The majority of Met Mile winners have been 4-year-olds. While 7 and 8-year-olds have started in the time frame, none have won. A handful of 3-year-olds have won, the last in 1996.
In addition to having the most winners, 4-year-olds also comprised 56.39% of the starters since 1991, 5-year-olds represent the next largest group in the time frame.
|Age||Average vs Expected Value Ratio (A/E)|
Looking at the performance of each age group, 4-year-olds have a relatively low win % (10%) compared to the number of starters (56.39%). But looking at the average versus expected value ratio, also known as A/E ratio, 4-year-olds have performed as expected earning an A/E of 1.
3-year-olds starters represent a small amount of overall starters (3.76%), but have performed well with 30% of them winning and an A/E ratio of 2.48, meaning they have outperformed their expected value. 5-year-olds have underperformed the most in the period.
Met Mile Multiple Winners & Run Backs 1991-2018
There have not been any two-time winners of Met Mile in the time period. A total of 20 individual starters have made more than one start in the Met Mile since 1991.
A run back is defined as an starter who made a prior start in the race. For example 1999 winner Sir Bear ran back in the 2000 Met Mile where he finished 3rd.
Starters who have made a prior start in the Met Mile have not performed particularly well, winning only 9.52% of the time.
Met Mile Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Met Mile winner, and includes the winning figure for the Met Mile. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Met Mile, the line starts with most recent.
Frosted raced twice in Dubai prior to his win 2016 and has been excluded from the charts below as there are no Brisnet Speed Ratings available for international races.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 110
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 104
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 104
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 102
The last 10 years have roughly been on trend with 50% of winners coming in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating, those coming in on a regressed rating dipped slightly to 40%.
The Met Mile has produced its share of generous payouts on favorites and long shots alike. The average winning odds since 1991 are 6.1-1 with a median of 3.8-1 and an average $14.40 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages have ticked down to 3.1-1 and $8.20 to win.
Favorites have slightly outperformed the generally accepted win rate of 35% to win 39.3% of the time since 1991 and have run in the money 66.9% of the time. The winner on average has been about 3rd choice (2.89) since 1991 but has dropped to about 2nd choice since 2010 (1.82)
Stalkers/Pressers been the overwhelming winners since 1991 winning 50% of the time. In the last 10 years off the pace runners won 40% while speed and stalker/pressers were evenly split with 30% of the wins.
The majority of both winners and starters have been 4-year-olds, and they’ve performed as expected. While 3-year-olds have not entered often, they have performed well in the time period with 30% of 3-year-old starters winning. Starters who have made a prior start in the Met Mile, known as run backs, have not performed well, winning only 9.5% of the time.
There have been no strong Brisnet Speed Rating patterns in the full time frame but in the last ten years those that came in on an improved speed rating had the edge winning 50% of the time compared to those with a regressed rating who won 40% of the time.