Stakes Profile: Louisiana Derby
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Louisiana Derby is 9 furlong race for 3-year-olds run at Fair Grounds. First run in 1894, it’s currently a Kentucky Derby points race. The race was not run 2006 due to Hurricane Katrina. The Louisiana Derby has only produced two Kentucky Derby winners since 1991, but what kind of betting race is it?
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Louisiana Derby winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet Speed Ratings.
The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Louisiana Derby Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
2012 winner Hero of Order has been excluded from the graph as an outlier at $1 odd of $109.40 to allow for better overall visualization, but is included in the averages and medians.
Average $1 Odds: $8.60
Median $1 Odds: $2.60
Average $1 Odds: $15.40
Median $1 Odds: $3.30
Average $2 Win: $19.20
Median $2 Win: $7.20
Average $2 Win: $32.80
Median $2 Win: $8.60
Louisiana Derby Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 2016 winner Gun Runner was 3rd choice in a 10 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information
Average Choice of Winner: 2.78
Average Field Size: 10.03
Average Favorite Finish Position: 2.33
Average Choice of Winner: 3.18
Average Field Size: 11.11
Average Favorite Finish Position: 1.91
Winning Louisiana Derby Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 1994 winner Kandaly was 15 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
1992 Line in the Sand won by disqualification and has been excluded from the running style charts since they did not finish first.
Stalkers/pressers have had a slight edge in the Louisiana Derby since 1991, winning 40.74% of the time. Closers were not far behind winning 37% of the time and off-the-pace runners and speed have won in equal measures. In the last 10 years stalkers/pressers were dominant winning 60% of the time.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Louisiana Derby Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018
70% of Louisiana Derby winners have come Fair Grounds since 1991 with that number jumping to 80% in the last 10 years. Winners have generally raced within the last 33 days.
Average Days Since Last Race: 33.93
Median Days Since Last Race: 29
Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Just over half of Louisiana Derby winners won their prior race and 81% finished in the money, or no worse than third, last out.
Louisiana Derby Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Louisiana Derby winner, and includes the winning figure for the Louisiana Derby. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Louisiana Derby, the line starts with most recent.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 101
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 95
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 96
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 93
Unlike the full time period where a slight majority of winners came in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating, in the last 10 years winners have had an improved Brisnet Speed Rating 60% of the time and two consecutive improved speed ratings 30% of the time.
For a race where favorites outperform the generally accepted win rate of 35% to win 51% of the time, the Louisiana Derby has been prone to decent payouts.
Average winning odds since 1991 were 8.6-1 with a median of 2.6-1 and an average $2 win payout of $19.20. Since 2010 those numbers jump considerably to average winning odds of 15.4-1 with a median of 3.3-1 and an average $2 win payout of $32.80. Even when 2012 outlier Hero of Order ($212.80 to win) is removed, the average $2 win has been $9.30, and that’s with the favorite winning 50% of the time.
Stalkers/pressers have had a slight edge, winning 40.7% of the time since 1991 while closers have won 37% of the time. In the last years stalkers/pressers have been dominate winning 60% of the time.
Winners have come from Fair Grounds 70% of the time and on average run in the last 33 days. Field size has surpassed the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 10 starters since 1991 and 11.11 starters since 2010.
A slight majority of winners came in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating since 1991, but in the last 10 years 60% of winners have had an improved speed rating.