Stakes Profile: Kentucky Jockey Club
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Kentucky Jockey Club is a 8.5 furlong race for 2-year-olds at Churchill Downs. First run in 1920, it’s currently a Kentucky Derby points race.
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Kentucky Jockey Club winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet Speed Figures.
The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
All data is via Equibase with the exception of Brisnet ratings.
Kentucky Jockey Club Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
Average $1 Odds: $3.70
Median $1 Odds: $3.40
2010-2018
Average $1 Odds: $3.50
Median $1 Odds: $3.40
Average $2 Win: $9.40
Median $2 Win: $8.90
2010-2018
Average $2 Win: $9.00
Median $2 Win: $8.80
Kentucky Jockey Club Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Dance Floor was 1st choice in a 10 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information.
Average Choice of Winner: 2.36
Average Field Size: 9.82
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.61
2010-2018
Average Choice of Winner: 1.89
Average Field Size: 11.56
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.73
Winning Kentucky Jockey Club Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 2002 winner Soto was 14.25 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Stalkers/pressers have been the most frequent winners of the Kentucky Jockey Club since 1991 (50%), that trend has held steady over the last 10 years.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Kentucky Jockey Club Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018
A vast majority of winners have come from Churchill Downs since 1991 and that trend has continued over the past 10 years. Belmont has sent two winners in the past decade. Winners have generally raced within the last month.
Average Days Since Last Race: 28.96
Median Days Since Last Race: 27
Kentucky Jockey Club Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Kentucky Jockey Club Winners Prior Career Starts 1991-2018
On average Kentucky Jockey Club winners have made 3.64 prior career starts since 1991. That number dipped slightly to 3.27 over the last 10 years.
Kentucky Jockey Club Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018
Below is a look at Brisnet speed ratings of Kentucky Jockey Club winners. Learn how the figures are calculated and keep up with weekly ratings for stakes races.
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Kentucky Jockey Club winner, and includes the winning figure for the Kentucky Jockey Club. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Kentucky Jockey Club, the line starts with most recent.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 97
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 92
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 92
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 89
A slight majority (53.5%) of Kentucky Jockey Club winners have come in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating since 1991, but in the last years that number has skyrocketed to 90%. Only two of those winners had back-to-back improved ratings.
Summary
The Kentucky Jockey Club has been a notably consistent and formful race since 1991 with no double digit odds winners in the time frame.
The average winning odds since 1991 are 3.7-1 with a median of 3.4-1 and an average $9.40 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those numbers have dipped to average odds of 3.5-1, median odds of 3.4-1 and $9.00 to win.
Favorites have performed close to the 2017 average favorite win rate of 37% to win 35.7% of the time since 1991 and 30% in the last 10 years.
The winner on average has been the 2nd choice (2.36) since 1991 and dropped slightly (1.89) since 2010. The favorite has had an average finish position of 3rd (3.61) since 1991, also dropping slightly to 3.73 since 2010. In the last decade winners have been no worse than 3rd choice.
Stalkers/Pressers have performed best since 1991 winning 50% of the time, a trend that has continued over the last 10 years.
Not surprisingly winners have come mostly from the host track of Churchill Downs. In the last ten years Belmont has sent two winners. Field size has been slightly above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 9.82 starters since 1991 and jumped to an average of 11.56 starters since 2010.
A majority of winners came in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating from their prior race since 1991, and that trend has intensified to 90% winners coming in an improved Brisnet Speed Rating in the last ten years.
