Stakes Profile: Fountain of Youth
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Fountain of Youth is a 8.5 furlong race for 3-year-olds run at Gulfstream Park. First run in 1945, it’s currently a Kentucky Derby points race. The Fountain of Youth has been a more productive prep for the Florida Derby than the Kentucky Derby.
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Fountain of Youth winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet speed figures.
The graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Fountain of Youth Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2019
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
1996 winner Built for Pleasure has been excluded from the graph as an outlier at $1 odd of $143.10 to allow for better overall visualization, but is included in the averages and medians.
Average $1 Odds: $9.00
Median $1 Odds: $4.20
Average $1 Odds: $5.40
Median $1 Odds: $4.30
Average $2 Win: $20.20
Median $2 Win: $10.50
Average $2 Win: $12.80
Median $2 Win: $10.70
Fountain of Youth Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2019
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Fly So Free was 1st choice in a 10 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information
Average Choice of Winner: 2.8
Average Field Size: 9.17
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3
Average Choice of Winner: 3.08
Average Field Size: 9.33
Average Favorite Finish Position: 4.25
Winning Fountain of Youth Running Styles 1991-2019
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over or tap the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 2017 winner Gunnevera was 9 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
First Samurai (2006) and Itsaknockout (2015) both won by disqualification and have been excluded from the running style charts since they did not finish first.
Early speed has produced the most Fountain of Youth winners since 1991, with stalkers/pressers winning 40% of the time and front-running runners winning 33.3% of the time. The last 10 years have roughly been on trend with 60% of the winners up and on the pace or in the lead, but three of the four deep closures since 1991 have won in the last 10 years.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Fountain of Youth Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2019
Winners have overwhelming come from Gulfstream Park and have generally raced within 35 days.
Average Days Since Last Race: 38.5
Median Days Since Last Race: 28
Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2019
Fountain of Youth Brisnet Ratings 1991-2019
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Fountain of Youth winner, and includes the winning figure for the Fountain of Youth. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Fountain of Youth, the line starts with most recent. For example, the top most line at “2 Races Back” belongs to 1997 winner Pulpit, who only has two consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the race.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 103
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 99
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 96
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 94
The last ten years have seen a jump to 70% of winners coming in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating and 40% coming in on a two race Brisnet Speed Rating improvement.
The Fountain of Youth has been a fairly formful race, with favorites performing just a hair under the 2017 average win rate of 37.89% to win 33.3% of the time since 1991. The average winning odds since 1991 are 9-1 with a median of 4.2-1 and an average $2 ticket paying $20.20. Since 2010 the winning odds have dropped to an average of 5.4-1 and median of 4.35-1. The average $2 win ticket since 2010 has dropped to $12.80.
The winner on average has been almost 3rd choice (2.8) since 1991 moving solidly to 3rd choice since 2010 (3.08). The favorite has an average finish position of 3rd (3) since 1991 and 4th (4.25) since 2010.
On or near the lead has produced the most wins since 1991 with stalkers/pressers at a 40% rate and speed at a 33.3% win rate. Deep closers and off-the-pace runners have only won four times a piece since 1991, but three of the deep closers have won in the last 10 years.
Winners have overwhelming come from Gulfstream Park and only three winners since 1991 finished worse than 3rd last out. Field size has been above the 2017 average of 7.7 with an average of 9.17 starters since 1991 and an average of 9.33 starters since 2010.
A solid 56.7% of winners came in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating from their prior race since 1991, that number jumps to a notable 70% in the last 10 years.