Stakes Profile: Delaware Handicap
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder

The Delaware Handicap is a 10 furlong race for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up at Delaware Park. First run in 1937, it’s frequently referred to as the Del Cap. While the Delaware Handicap has produced its fair share of Hall of Famers as well as a Horse of the Year, what kind of betting race is it?

Below is a snapshot of what has produced Delaware Handicap winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet speed figures.

The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.

All data is via Equibase with the exception of Brisnet ratings.

Note for mobile users: Charts and graphs are best viewed on bigger devices, but viewing them in landscape/horizontally will slightly improve your viewing experience.

Delaware Handicap Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018

Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.

Outliers Night Fax (1995 odds of 26.6-1), Power Play (1997 odds of 27.8-1) and Amarillo (1998 odds of 41.9-1) have been excluded from the chart below to allow for better overall visualization. They are included in the averages and medians.

1991-2018

Average $1 Odds: $6.40
Median $1 Odds: $2.30

2010-2018
Average $1 Odds: $1.40
Median $1 Odds: $.60

1991-2018

Average $2 Win: $14.80
Median $2 Win: $6.70

2010-2018
Average $2 Win: $4.90
Median $2 Win: $3.20

Delaware Handicap Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018

Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Crowned was 2nd choice in a 8 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information

1991-2018

Average Choice of Winner: 2.61
Average Field Size: 8
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.00

2010-2018
Average Choice of Winner: 1.73
Average Field Size: 6.27
Average Favorite Finish Position: 1.67

Winning Delaware Handicap Running Styles 1991-2018

To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.

For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 1993 winner Green Darlin was 15 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.

Early speed and stalker/pressers have won equally since 1991 but in the last 10 years speed has had the edge winning 50% of the time.

Position at the 1/2 mile mark…

Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader

Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.

Winning Delaware Handicap Running Styles 1991-1999
Winning Delaware Handicap Running Styles 2000-2009
Winning Delaware Handicap Running Styles 2010-2018

Delaware Handicap Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018

Delaware Handicap winners have come from a handful of tracks since 1991, four of the six wins from Churchill Downs occurred in the last 10 years.

Days Since Last Race 1991-2018
Average Days Since Last Race: 37.54
Median Days Since Last Race: 29

Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018

Only 35.7% of Delaware Handicap winners have come in on a win since 1991, which is notably lower than winners from our previously published Stakes Profiles, but in the last 10 years 50% of winners came in on a win.

Delaware Handicap Winners Age 1991-2018

Since 1991 there have only been 4 and 5-year-old winners of the Delaware Handicap. There have been no 3-year-old starters in the time frame.

Odds by Age Group 1991-2018
Age Average
Starter Odds
Average
Winner Odds
4 year-olds $19.20 $7.00
5 year-olds $26.00 $5.20
6 year-olds $15.10 $0
7 year-olds $27.20 $0
Listed as $1 odds
Delaware Handicap All Starters by Age 1991-2018

While 4-year-olds have won much more often than 5-year-olds, comparing the win rate of each group relative to the amount of starters shows them to be pretty evenly matched with 4-year-olds winning 14.2% of the time and 5-year-olds winning 13.5% of the time.

Delaware Handicap Win % by Age 1991-2018
A/E Ratio by Age Group 1991-2018
Age Average vs Expected Value Ratio (A/E)
4 year-olds 1.40
5 year-olds .97
6 year-olds 0
7 year-olds 0
Numbers over 1 outperform expected value and numbers less than 1 underperform expected value. Learn more about how A/E ratio is calculated and how it should be interpreted.

Delaware Handicap Multiple Winners & Run Backs 1991-2018

Only Royal Delta has won the Delaware Handicap twice in the time frame (2012-2013). A total of 14 individual starters have made more than one start in the Delaware Handicap since 1991.

A run back is defined as an starter who made a prior start in the race.

Starters who have made previous run in the Delaware Handicap have not performed particularly well, with Royal Delta being the only run back winner. Run backs have done a little better if you look at in the money finishes, hitting the board 35.7% of the time since 1991.

Delaware Handicap Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018

Below is a look at Brisnet speed ratings of Delaware Handicap winners. Learn how the figures are calculated and keep up with weekly ratings for stakes races.

Winners Last Three Brisnet Speed Ratings 1991-2017

The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Delaware Handicap winner, and includes the winning figure for the Delaware Handicap.

Coming into the Delaware Handicap 1991-2018
Brisnet speed ratings - Delaware Handicap
Brisnet Speed Averages 1991-2018

Winning Brisnet Speed: 103
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 100
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 100
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 98

The last ten years have winners coming in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating won 60% of the time. Wild Spirit (2003) and Royal Delta (2012-2013) have been excluded from improved versus regressed counts as they both had an international start two-back and therefore do not have a Brisnet Speed Rating for the two-back start.

Winners Last Three Brisnet Speed Ratings 2009-2018

Summary

The Delaware Handicap has generally been a formful race since 1991 but especially so in the last 10 years.

The average winning odds since 1991 are 6.4-1 with a median of 2.3-1 and an average $14.80 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages have dipped to 1.4-1 odds with a median of $.60 and $4.90 to win.

Favorites have outperformed the generally accepted win rate of 35% to win 39.3% of the time since 1991. In the last 10 years the favorite has won 60% of the time. The winner on average has been almost 3rd choice (2.61) since 1991 but has dropped to about 2nd choice since 2010 (1.73).

Speed and stalker/pressers have won equally (35.7%) since 1991 but in last 10 years speed has had the edge to win 50% of the time.

The majority of both winners and starters have been 4-year-olds. 5-year-olds have not entered as often as 4-year-olds but have won almost as often when comparing wins relative to numbers of starts. There have been no 3-year-olds entered since 1991. Starters who have made a prior start in the Met Mile, known as run backs, have not performed well, winning only 7.1% of the time.

Winners have some from a range of tracks since 1991 but four of the six winners from Churchill Downs did so in the last 10 years. Since 1991 the average field size has been slightly above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 8 starters, but since 2010 that number has dropped dramatically to 6.27 average starters.

Coming in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating has performed slightly better than in in the full time period but has been an an edge in the last 10 runnings winning 50% of the time.

Favorite
Favorites have performed well
Running Style
Speed and Stalkers
Brisnet Speed Rating
50% of the last 10 winners came in on a regressed rating
Age
No 6 or 7-year-olds have won since 1991

Questions? Comments? We're here to help!

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *