Stakes Profile: Cigar Mile
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Cigar Mile is a 8 furlong race for 3-year-olds and up at Aqueduct. First run in 1988 as the NYRA Mile, it was renamed for 1994 winner Cigar in 1991. The race was not run in 1993.
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Cigar Mile winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet speed figures.
The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Cigar Mile Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
Purge (2006) and Jersey Town (2010) are excluded from the chart below as outliers at $1 odds of 25.5-1 and 34.7-1. They are included in the averages and medians.
Average $1 Odds: $7.00
Median $1 Odds: $4.50
Average $1 Odds: $6.70
Median $1 Odds: $2.75
Average $2 Win: $16.00
Median $2 Win: $11.00
Average $2 Win: $15.40
Median $2 Win: $7.50
Cigar Mile Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Rubiano was 4th choice in a 15 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information.
Average Choice of Winner: 3.67
Average Field Size: 8.96
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.82
Average Choice of Winner: 3.11
Average Field Size: 8.11
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3
Winning Cigar Mile Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 1997 winner Devious Course was 11 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
The Cigar Mile has been predominately won by stalker/pressers since 1991 (55.6%) and that trend has continue over the past 10 years (50%).
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Cigar Mile Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018
The majority of Cigar Mile winner have come from Belmont Park.
Average Days Since Last Race: 40.11
Median Days Since Last Race: 38
Cigar Mile Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Cigar Mile Winners Age 1991-2018
The majority of winners and starters since 1991 have 4-year-olds. No 6-year-olds have won and there have been no starters older than 7-year-old in the time frame.
|Age||Average vs Expected Value Ratio (A/E)|
With the exception of 6-year-olds, each age group has performed reasonably well in relation to number of starters.
Cigar Mile Multiple Winners & Run Backs 1991-2018
Congaree (2002-2003) is only two-time winner in the time frame.
A run back is defined as an starter who made a prior start in the race. For example Congaree made his first Cigar Mile start in 2002 and ran back to win in 2003.
Starters who have previously run in the Cigar Mile have performed relatively well to win 21.4% of the time and run in the money 42.9% of the time.
Cigar Mile Fillies and Mares 1991-2018
Groupie Doll is the only mare to run in the Cigar Mile in the time frame. In 2012 she finished second as the favorite and in 2013 she finished 4th.
Cigar Mile Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Cigar Mile winner, and includes the winning figure for the Cigar Mile. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Cigar Mile, the line starts with most recent.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 111
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 103
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 103
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 101
Those coming in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Racing have had a slight edge (55.5%) since 1991. The last ten years have that trend has intensified to 70% of the winners coming in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating.
The Cigar Mile has generally been an interesting betting race where favorites have under-performed and an occasional longshot wins.
The average winning odds since 1991 are 7-1 with a median of 4.5-1 and an average $16.00 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages have dipped slightly to average odds of 6.7-1 and $15.40 to win. Medians since 2010 dropped much more to odds of 2.7-1 and $7.50 to win.
Favorites have unperformed the 2017 average favorite win rate of 37% to win 25.9% of the time since 1991 and only 30% in the last 10 years.
The winner on average has been the 3rd choice (3.67) since 1991 and remained so since 2010 (3.11). The favorite has an average finish position of 3rd (3.82) since 1991 and has improved slightly since 2010 (3)
Stalkers/Pressers have performed best since 1991 winning 55.6% of the time. This trend has roughly continued in the past ten years with stalker/pressers winning 50% of the time.
Winners have predominately come from Belmont Park since 1991. Field size has been above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 8.96 starters since 1991 and 8.11 starters since 2010.
A majority of winners came in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating from their prior race since 1991, and that trend has been strong over the last 10 years with 70% of winners coming in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating.