Stakes Profile: Breeders’ Cup Mile
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Breeders’ Cup Mile is an 8 furlong turf race for 3-year-olds and up. First run in 1984 as one of the original Breeders’ Cup races, it’s reliably produced champions as well as unforgettable and historic moments, but what kind of betting race is it?
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Breeders’ Cup Mile winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet speed figures.
The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Breeders’ Cup Mile Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
2011 winner Court Vision has been excluded from the chart below as an outlier at $1 odds of 64.8-1. His win is included in the averages and medians.
Average $1 Odds: $10.60
Median $1 Odds: $5.50
Average $1 Odds: $13.80
Median $1 Odds: $4.90
Average $2 Win: $23.20
Median $2 Win: $13.00
Average $2 Win: $29.60
Median $2 Win: $11.80
Breeders’ Cup Mile Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Opening Verse was 12th choice in a 14 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information.
Average Choice of Winner: 4.07
Average Field Size: 12.89
Average Favorite Finish Position: 5.4
Average Choice of Winner: 4.33
Average Field Size: 12.33
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.82
Winning Breeders’ Cup Mile Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that in the 2009 winner Goldikova was 10 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
The Breeders’ Cup Mile had been predominately won by stalkers since 1991 (50%). In the last 10 years stalkers have won 30% but off-the-pace runners have had the edge, winning 70% of the time.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Breeders’ Cup Mile Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018
The majority of Breeders’ Cup Mile winners have come from Longchamp since 1991 with Keeneland not far behind. These two tracks have also dominated the last decade, each sending four winners. Winners have on average races in the last 33 days.
Average Days Since Last Race: 33.1
Median Days Since Last Race: 28
Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Just over half of Breeders’ Cup Mile winners won their prior race and all but three finished in the money, or no worse than third, last out. Two of those three winners who finished worse than third happened in the last decade.
Breeders’ Cup Mile Winners Age 1991-2018
4-year-olds have been the most frequent starters (33.8%) and winners (39.2%) of the Breeders’ Cup Mile since 1991. 25% of the winners have 3-year-olds while 21% have 5-year-olds, but 5-year-olds have started a bit more frequently than 3-year-olds. 6-, 7- and 8-year-olds make up 14% of all starters in the time frame.
|Age||Average vs Expected Value Ratio (A/E)|
Looking at the performance of each age group, 6-year-olds had the highest win rate to relative starters at 9.6% but there isn’t that much difference between the age groups given the larger overall number of starters as compared to non-Breeders’ Cup stakes races.
Breeders’ Cup Mile Multiple Winners & Run Backs 1991-2018
Since 1991 the Breeders’ Cup Mile has had three two-time winners (Lure 1992-1993, Da Hoss 1996 & 1998, Wise Dan 2012-2013) and one three-time winner (Goldikova 2008-2010).
A total of 55 individual starters have made more than one start in the Breeders’ Cup Mile since 1991 for a total of 45 run back starts.
A run back is defined as an starter who made a prior start in the race. For example three-time winner Goldikova first ran in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2008, finishing first. She ran back to win in 2009 and 2010, then again to finish 3rd in 2011.
Starters who have previously run in the Breeders’ Cup Mile have only won 9.09% of the time since 1991 and have finished in the money 18.2% of the time.
Breeders’ Cup Mile Fillies and Mares 1991-2018
Six fillies/mares have won the Breeders’ Cup Mile since 1991. In that time frame 48 fillies/mares have started for a 12.5% win rate relative to number of starts. Fillies and mares fared a bit better hitting the board, running in the money 13 times, or 27% of the time, relative to starts.
Thanks largely to thee-time winner Goldikova (IRE) and Tepin, fillies and mares have fared much better in the last ten years with a win rate of 16.7% relative to starts..
Breeders’ Cup Mile Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Breeders’ Cup Mile winner, and includes the winning figure for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Breeders’ Cup Mile, the line starts with most recent.
Barathea (IRE) (1994), Ridgewood Pearl (GB) (1995), Spinning World (1997), Domedriver (IRE) (2002), Six Perfections (FR) (2003), Goldikova (IRE) (2008-2011), Karakontie (JPN) (2016) and Expert Eye (GB) (2018) have been excluded from the charts below as they had no prior Brisnet Speed Ratings in the three starts leading up to their Breeders’ Cup Mile win.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 106
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 102
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 102
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 100
Of those winners who had Brisnet Speed Ratings leading up the Breeders’ Cup Mile, those that came in on an improved rating had a slight edge. In the last 10 years winners were split between improved and regressed Brisnet Speed Ratings.
The Breeders’ Cup Mile has generally been a formful race with an occasional great payout.
The average winning odds since 1991 are 10.6-1 with a median of 5.5-1 and an average $23.20 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 the averages have increased to winning odds of 13.8-1 and $29.60 to win while the median odds dropped to 4.9-1.
Favorites have performed close to the 2017 average favorite win rate of 35.7% since 1991 and have won a notable 50% in the last ten years.
The winner on average has been the 4th choice (4.07) since 1991 and has remained relatively steady at 4.33 since 2010. The favorite has an average finish position of 5th (5.4) since 1991 but has improved dramatically to 3rd (3.82) since 2010.
Stalkers/Pressers have performed best since 1991 winning 50% of the time. Stalker/pressers have performed well in the last ten years, winning 30% of the time, but off-the-pace runners have had the edge winning 70% of the time.
Winners have predominately come from Keeneland and Longchamp since 1991, and that trend has continued over the last 10 years with each track sending 40% of the winners. Field size has been above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 12.89 starters since 1991.
Winners coming in on an improved Brisnet Speed Rating have had the edge in the full time frame, but have been evenly split evenly split between those coming in on an improved or regressed rating in the last 10 years.