Stakes Profile: Arlington Million
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
The Arlington Million is a 10 furlong turf race for 3-year-olds and up at Arlington Park. First run in 1981, it’s currently a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race. The race was not run in 1998 and 1999. While the Arlington Million has produced its fair share of Breeders’ Cup winners and champions, what kind of betting race is it?
Below is a snapshot of what has produced Arlington Million winners since 1991 including odds, bettors’ choice, field size, running styles, prior race location, prior race finish position, number of days since the last race as well as Brisnet speed figures.
The charts and graphs are interactive. Hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Arlington Million Winners Odds & Payouts 1991-2018
Odds are shown as listed in the charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
Average $1 Odds: $5.90
Median $1 Odds: $5.00
Average $1 Odds: $6.00
Median $1 Odds: $4.90
Average $2 Win: $13.80
Median $2 Win: $12.10
Average $2 Win: $14.60
Median $2 Win: $11.80
Arlington Million Winners Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2018
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Tight Spot was 1st choice in a 10 horse field. Hover-over or touch the bars for more information
Average Choice of Winner: 3.27
Average Field Size: 10.12
Average Favorite Finish Position: 3.5
Average Choice of Winner: 3.44
Average Field Size: 10.56
Average Favorite Finish Position: 5.56
Winning Arlington Million Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that Gio Ponti (2009) and The Pizza Man (2015) were 13 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Since 1991 the Arlington Million has been won most often by off-the-pace runners, or those who sat more three lengths off the leader. The last 10 years have been no different with 60% of the winners coming from off the pace.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark…
Speed: In the lead
Presser/Stalker: Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace: Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer: More than 6 lengths off the leader
Below is a closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Arlington Million Winners Last Track Raced & Days Since 1991-2018
The majority of winners have come from Belmont Park and Del Mar with the rest coming from a variety of tracks. 19.2% of winners since 1991 were international shippers coming from England, Ireland, Germany and Singapore.
Average Days Since Last Race: 36.15
Median Days Since Last Race: 28.5
Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Only 26.9% of Arlington Million winners won their prior race since 1991 with all but five winners finishing in the money last out.
Arlington Million Winners Age 1991-2018
The majority of winners have been 4 and 5-year-olds. There have been no 3-, 7- or 9-year-old winners in the time frame.
In addition to having the most winners, 4 and 5-year-olds also had the most starters comprising 66.5% of all starters between them. 6-year-olds made up almost 20% of the starters (20.2%) while 7-year-olds represent 7.6% of starters. 3, 8 and 9-year-old each made up less than 3% of the overall starters.
|Age||Average vs Expected Value Ratio (A/E)|
Looking at the performance of each age group, 8-year-olds had the highest win rate relative to the amount of starters at 14.3% while 6-year-olds have the lowest win rate (3.7%) of the groups with a win. 4-year-olds have slightly outperformed 5-year-olds.
Arlington Million Multiple Winners & Run Backs 1991-2018
There have not been any two-time winners of the Arlington Million since 1991, however 2005 winner Powerscourt (GB) finished first in 2004 but was disqualified and placed second. A total of 32 individual starters have made more than one start in the Arlington Million since 1991 for a total of 43 run back starts.
A run back is defined as an starter who made a prior start in the race. For example 2006 winner The Tin Man first ran in the 2003 Arlington Million and finished 6th. He ran back in to win in 2006 and then again to finish 2nd in 2007.
Starters who have made a prior start in the Arlington Million have not performed particularly well, winning only 6.9% of the time. Run back starters have fared a little better if you look at in the money finishes, hitting the board 30.2% of the time since 1991.
Arlington Million Brisnet Ratings 1991-2018
The chart below represents the last three Brisnet Speed Ratings earned by the Arlington Million winner, and includes the winning figure for the Arlington Million. In instances where a starter did not have three consecutive Brisnet Speed Ratings leading into the Arlington Million, the line starts with most recent.
Dear Doctor (FR) (1992), Silvano (GER) (2001), Sulamani (IRE) (2003), Powerscourt (GB) (2005), Spirit One (FR) (2008), Dubussy (IRE) (2010), and Mondialiste (IRE) (2015) have been excluded from the charts below as they the did not have three consecutive North American starts prior to the Arlington Million.
Winning Brisnet Speed: 103
Brisnet Speed Prior Race: 100
Brisnet Speed 2 Back: 100
Brisnet Speed 3 Back: 100
The trend of winners coming in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating has strengthened to a notable 60% in the last 10 years.
The Arlington Million has been a good place to find a price, especially in the last 10 years.
The average winning odds since 1991 are 5.9-1 with a median of 5-1 and an average $13.80 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 the averages have crept up to odds of 6-1 with a payout of $14.60 while medians slightly dropped to 4.9-1 and $11.80.
Favorites have unperformed the generally accepted win rate of 35% to win 26.9% of the time since 1991 and only 20% in the last 10 years. The favorite on average has 3rd choice since 1991 (3.37) trending towards 4th choice since 2010 (3.44). Favorites on average have finished 3rd (3.5) since 1991 and 5th (5.56) since 2010.
Off the pace runners have won 38.4% of the time with deep closers and stalkers each having won 23% of the time since 1991.
The majority of both winners and starters have been 4-year-olds. 5-year-olds have entered a bit less often than 4-year-olds but have won almost as often when comparing wins relative to numbers of starts. There have been no 3-, 7-, or 9-year-old winners since 1991. Starters who have made a prior start in the Arlington Million, known as run backs, have not performed well, winning only 6.9% of the time.
Winners have come primarily from Belmont Park since 1991. International runners have also done well in the time frame but have not come from a single track. Since 1991 the average field size has been notably above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 10.12 starters, since 2010 that number has increased to 10.56 average starters.
A majority of winners have come in on a regressed Brisnet Speed Rating since 1991.