The right mix of speed and stamina is needed to capture the longest dirt race many Belmont contestants will ever run.
Once upon a time, American thoroughbred racing was all about stamina. In the nineteenth century, it was not unusual for races to be contested in back-to-back two-mile heats, and even as recently as 1975, the venerated Jockey Club Gold Cup tested horses going two miles. Consequently, breeders once focused on developing speed that could be carried over significant distances.
However, the dearth of true staying races today has altered American breeding (or vice versa) to the point where few horses regularly race over nine furlongs—a fact that makes the Belmont Stakes unique in American racing, as it is the only remaining 1 1/2 mile graded stakes run on dirt. In part, that’s also what makes this the most difficult of the Triple Crown races, and the one that, ironically, breeders value most.
Even more so than the Kentucky Derby, pedigree plays a critical role in who can and can not get the Belmont distance. A poor post position can be easily overcome, and more experienced horses don’t necessarily hold an advantage over those more lightly raced. A slow pace can adversely affect deep closers, but only if those on-pace can carry their speed over a mile and a half. Knowing which horses, no matter how lightly regarded, possess the potential to run 12 furlongs can lead to big payoffs at the betting window.
Case in point: Da’ Tara’s upset victory in the 2008 Belmont. Notwithstanding Big Brown’s inexplicable poor performance, there were significant questions about the colt’s distance breeding, as both his sire Boundary and broodmare sire Nureyev were sprinters/milers. On the other hand, Da’ Tara’s sire Tiznow had twice won the Breeders’ Cup Classic over 10 furlongs, not to mention that Tiznow’s broodmare sire Seattle Song (son of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew) also won the 12 furlong Washington DC International. So, with only a maiden win to his name, Da’ Tara went off at 38-1, but his pedigree held up, as did his wire-to-wire front running speed.
So, while most of this year’s Belmont contenders have some evidence of stamina breeding, who among them appears a step above?
Ice Box
(Pulpit out of Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat)
In my Kentucky Derby pedigree post, I touted Ice Box, who resolutely demonstrated his stamina potential by running a fast-closing second to Super Saver. Based on his dam Spice Island’s victories over 11 and 12 furlongs, Ice Box should relish the Belmont distance.
Spangled Star
(Distorted Humor out of Spangled, by Kris S.)
If he has progressed under trainer Rick Dutrow’s tutorage, Spangled Star could pull a major upset. Like many great sires, Distorted Humor was a miler, but when bred to mares with strong stamina lines, he has produced such Grade 1 distance horses as Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner Funny Cide, Haskell victor Any Given Saturday and Delaware Handicap victress Hystericalady. Spangled Star’s damsire Kris S. has produced numerous Grade 1 runners over 10 to 12 furlongs, including two-time Japanese Horse of the Year Symboli Kris S., Breeders’ Cup Turf victor Prized, Epsom Derby winner Kris Kin, Arlington Million victor Kicken Kris and Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf victress Soaring Softly.
Drosselmeyer
(Distorted Humor out of Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet)
A jockey change from Kent Desormeaux to Mike Smith might be just the nudge needed to get this colt to finally live up to his hype. Another son of Distorted Humor, Drosselmeyer is out of the multi-Grade 1 winning mare Golden Ballet, who has already produced a Grade 1-placed filly in Stage Luck. The damsire of Golden Ballet, Belmont Stakes runner-up Slew O’ Gold, twice won the 12-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup on his way to winning back-to-back Eclipse awards.
Fly Down
(Mineshaft out of Queen Randi, by Fly So Free)
The “other” Nick Zito-trained entry, Fly Down, has twice beaten Preakness runner-up First Dude and he crushed Drosselmeyer in the Grade 2 Dwyer last out. With a sharp bullet work and veteran jockey Johnny Velazquez up, Fly Down wouldn’t be a surprise winner. His sire Mineshaft, a son of Belmont winner A.P. Indy, won both the Suburban Handicap and Jockey Club Gold Cup going 10 furlongs. His dam Queen Randi has also produced on a similar Seattle Slew-cross Grade 1-placed router Seafree. Damsire Fly So Free won both the Jim Dandy and Florida Derby over nine furlongs, and has produced winners over 10 furlongs such as Dubai World Cup winner Captain Steve, and Canadian turf champion filly Free Vacation, who three times won at 12 furlongs.
Good, but maybe not quite good enough…
First Dude (Stephen Got Even out of Run Sarah Run, by Smart Strike) could be very dangerous if left alone on the early lead, but his pedigree isn’t a slam-dunk. Neither Stephen Got Even nor Smart Strike won beyond nine furlongs, and Smart Strike’s best routers possess clear stamina influences through their dams, such as English Channel, who is out of a Theatrical mare, and Curlin, whose damline contains the blood of Epsom Derby winner Sir Ivor.
Others who may have the potential to stay 12 furlongs include Game On Dude (Awesome Again out of Worldly Pleasure, by Devil His Due) by Queen’s Plate winner Awesome Again, who won multiple times over 10 furlongs, while his damsire Devil His Due won the 10-furlong Gulfstream Park Handicap.
His dirt form thus far is suspect, but if he puts it together, Stately Victor (Ghostzapper out of Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer) certainly has distance potential, particularly through his damsire Dynaformer, son of Epsom Derby winner Roberto. A son of Awesome Again, Ghostzapper won the 10-furlong Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Interactif (Broken Vow out of Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush) appears destined for a turf career, but trainer Todd Pletcher entered him in the Belmont. His sire Broken Vow ran third in the 10-furlong Gulfstream Park Handicap, and has produced stamina-rich offspring such as Delaware Handicap winner Unbridled Belle, and 11-furlong Canadian Derby victor Matt’s Broken Vow.
Another son of Broken Vow, Stay Put (Broken Vow out of O.K. Mom, by Dixieland Band) is also entered in the Belmont, but his damsire Dixieland Band’s progeny typically top out around nine furlongs, such as Haskell winner Dixie Union whose son Dave in Dixie (Dixie Union out of Risk, by Wavering Monarch) is also entered in this year’s Belmont, looking well-overmatched. However, there is some stamina on Dave in Dixie’s damside, with his second dam’s sire Droll Role having won the Canadian International over 13 furlongs.
Perhaps the most questionable pedigrees for this event are those of Uptowncharlybrown (Limehouse out of La Iluminada, by Langfuhr) and Make Music for Me (Bernstein out of Miss Cheers, by Carson City). Limehouse did win the 9-furlong Brooklyn Handicap, but this son of sprinter/miler Grand Slam out of a Dixieland Band mare, combined with a daughter of Canadian champion sprinter Langfuhr, doesn’t scream 12 furlongs. Neither does a son of Bernstein out of a Carson City mare, both sprinters. However, Carson City has thrived as a broodmare sire, instilling toughness and durability in his offspring, and Make Music For Me’s second dam Rise Sing and is by Epsom Derby winner The Minstrel out of a Seattle Slew mare.
