The Kentucky Derby is one of the most over-analyzed events on the racing calendar. There is no shortage of angles to take into account when putting together your wagering for the big day, and some of the most effective “systems” are those that take into account multiple angles. The strike system created by HRTV racing analyst Jon White takes into account many factors to find a winner on the big day.
In 2005, based on his strike system, White selected Closing Argument at 71 to 1. He finished a close second to another longshot, Giacomo. Last year, his strike system did him no favors when Mine That Bird hit the wire first. Like all systems based in logic, this one goes out the window when a colt shipping in from New Mexico – winless in two starts as a 3-year-old – wins the big race at Churchill. However, the second through fifth place finishers last year all ranked high in White’s system. In racing, even when you are wrong, you can be right. Unfortunately, you don’t always get paid for good handicapping.
From an historical perspective, one of the most reliable angles can be found in the results of the four major prep races. Of the 59 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1952, 46 (78%) have finished in the top three in either the Florida Derby, Bluegrass Stakes, Wood Memorial, or Santa Anita Derby. Of the last 59 Derby winners, 20 (34%) have finished first in one of these prep races.
With changes to the racing surfaces at Santa Anita and Keeneland – as well as the enhanced stature of the Arkansas Derby – the last decade has some questioning the importance of the big four. However, the reliability of this angle has only been off slightly in the last 10 years. Since 2000, six of the last ten winners have finished in the top three in one of the four major preps. Four colts have won one of these preps before winning on the first Saturday in May.
This year, of the twelve colts who have finished in the top three in the four major preps, seven are entered in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Most horseplayers will tell you that it is easier to figure out the horses who can’t win–sometimes referred to as “throwouts”–than figuring out the one who can. Throwing out horses who didn’t run or perform well in one of the major preps isn’t a perfect system, but history will tell you that it’s not a bad way to start handicapping the big race.
UPDATED LIST, 4/28
The list of the seven runners who finished in the top three in the major preps, starting in the 2010 Kentucky Derby are:
Stately Victor (1st in the Bluegrass)
Paddy O’Prado (2nd in the Bluegrass)
Awesome Act (3rd in the Wood)
Sidney’s Candy (1st Santa Anita Derby)
Lookin at Lucky (3rd Santa Anita Derby)
Ice Box (1st Florida Derby)
Jackson Bend (2nd Wood)
