The Kentucky Derby is one of the most over-analyzed events on the racing calendar. There is no shortage of angles to take into account when putting together your wagering for the big day, and some of the most effective “systems” are those that take into account multiple angles. The strike system created by HRTV racing analyst Jon White takes into account many factors to find a winner on the big day.

In 2005, based on his strike system, White selected Closing Argument at 71 to 1. He finished a close second to another longshot, Giacomo. Last year, his strike system did him no favors when Mine That Bird hit the wire first. Like all systems based in logic, this one goes out the window when a colt shipping in from New Mexico – winless in two starts as a 3-year-old – wins the big race at Churchill. However, the second through fifth place finishers last year all ranked high in White’s system. In racing, even when you are wrong, you can be right. Unfortunately, you don’t always get paid for good handicapping.

From an historical perspective, one of the most reliable angles can be found in the results of the four major prep races. Of the 60 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1952, 46 (76%) have finished in the top three in either the Florida Derby, Bluegrass Stakes, Wood Memorial, or Santa Anita Derby. Of the last 60 Derby winners, 20 (33%) have finished first in one of these prep races.

With changes to the racing surfaces at Santa Anita and Keeneland – as well as the enhanced stature of the Arkansas Derby – the last decade has some questioning the importance of the big four. However, the reliability of this angle has only been off slightly in the last 10 years. Since 2000, sevem of the last twelve winners have finished in the top three in one of the four major preps. Four colts have won one of these preps before winning on the first Saturday in May.

Last year, was as an outlier year when the top three finishers all exited non-traditional prep races. A colt exiting the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park, Animal Kingdom, won the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom was the first Derby winner to win the Spiral since 1992 (Lil E. Tee). The second place finisher, Nehro, ran his final prep in the Louisiana Derby. Mucho Macho Man, ran second in the Arkansas Derby before a third place finisher at Churchill.

2012 Kentucky Derby
The list of the eight runners who finished in the top three in the major preps and who are likely to start in the 2012 Kentucky Derby are:

Take Charge Indy (1st Florida Derby – chart)

Union Rags (3rd Florida Derby – chart)

Dullahan (1st Bluegrass Stakes – chart)

Hansen (2nd Bluegrass Stakes – chart)

Gemologist (1st Wood Memorial – chart)

Alpha (2nd Wood Memorial – chart)

I’ll Have Another (1st Santa Derby – chart)

Creative Cause (2nd Santa Derby – chart)

2011 Kentucky Derby
The list of the eight runners who finished in the top three in the major preps and who are likely to start in the 2011 Kentucky Derby are:

Dialed In (1st in the Florida Derby)

Shackleford (2nd in the Florida Derby)

Toby’s Corner (1st in the Wood)

Uncle Mo (3rd in the Wood)

Brilliant Speed (1st in the Blue Grass)

Twinspired (2nd in the Blue Grass)

Midnight Interlude (1st in Santa Anita Derby)

Comma to the Top (2nd in the Santa Anita Derby)

2010 Kentucky Derby
The list of the seven runners who finished in the top three in the major preps, starting in the 2010 Kentucky Derby are:

Stately Victor (1st in the Bluegrass)

Paddy O’Prado (2nd in the Bluegrass)

Awesome Act (3rd in the Wood)

Sidney’s Candy (1st Santa Anita Derby)

Lookin at Lucky (3rd Santa Anita Derby)

Ice Box (1st Florida Derby)

Jackson Bend (2nd Wood)

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