The Kentucky Derby is one of the most over-analyzed events on the racing calendar. There is no shortage of angles to take into account when putting together your wagering for the big day, and some of the most effective “systems” are those that take into account multiple angles. The strike system created by HRTV racing analyst Jon White takes into account many factors to find a winner on the big day.

In 2005, based on his strike system, White selected Closing Argument at 71 to 1. He finished a close second to another longshot, Giacomo. Last year, his strike system did him no favors when Mine That Bird hit the wire first. Like all systems based in logic, this one goes out the window when a colt shipping in from New Mexico – winless in two starts as a 3-year-old – wins the big race at Churchill. However, the second through fifth place finishers last year all ranked high in White’s system. In racing, even when you are wrong, you can be right. Unfortunately, you don’t always get paid for good handicapping.

From an historical perspective, one of the most reliable angles can be found in the results of the four major prep races. Of the 59 winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1952, 46 (78%) have finished in the top three in either the Florida Derby, Bluegrass Stakes, Wood Memorial, or Santa Anita Derby. Of the last 59 Derby winners, 20 (34%) have finished first in one of these prep races.

With changes to the racing surfaces at Santa Anita and Keeneland – as well as the enhanced stature of the Arkansas Derby – the last decade has some questioning the importance of the big four. However, the reliability of this angle has only been off slightly in the last 10 years. Since 2000, six of the last eleven winners have finished in the top three in one of the four major preps. Four colts have won one of these preps before winning on the first Saturday in May.

In 2010, the winner (Super Saver) came out of the Arkansas Derby, in which he finished second. The second- and third-place finishers won the Florida Derby (Ice Box) and finished second in the Blue Grass (Paddy O’ Prado). This year, of the twelve colts who have finished in the top three in the four major preps, eight are likely to start in the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Most horseplayers will tell you that it is easier to figure out the horses who can’t win–sometimes referred to as “throwouts”– than to figure out the one who can. Throwing out horses who didn’t run or perform well in one of the major preps isn’t a perfect system, but history will tell you that it’s not a bad way to start handicapping the big race.

2011 Kentucky Derby
The list of the eight runners who finished in the top three in the major preps and who are likely to start in the 2011 Kentucky Derby are:

Dialed In (1st in the Florida Derby)

Shackleford (2nd in the Florida Derby)

Toby’s Corner (1st in the Wood)

Uncle Mo (3rd in the Wood)

Brilliant Speed (1st in the Blue Grass)

Twinspired (2nd in the Blue Grass)

Midnight Interlude (1st in Santa Anita Derby)

Comma to the Top (2nd in the Santa Anita Derby)

2010 Kentucky Derby
The list of the seven runners who finished in the top three in the major preps, starting in the 2010 Kentucky Derby are:

Stately Victor (1st in the Bluegrass)

Paddy O’Prado (2nd in the Bluegrass)

Awesome Act (3rd in the Wood)

Sidney’s Candy (1st Santa Anita Derby)

Lookin at Lucky (3rd Santa Anita Derby)

Ice Box (1st Florida Derby)

Jackson Bend (2nd Wood)