2015 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Cheat Sheet
By Dana Byerly, Hello Race Fans Co-founder
2015 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Replay
Video courtesy of the Breeders’ Cup
So you want to watch the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Distaff on Friday but you have no idea who’s running. Not to worry! Here’s a thumbnail of the field in order of post position with morning line odds.
1. I’m a Chatterbox (8-1) – The Grade 1 Cotillion winner has a lot of positives coming into the race. She’s training well, has a flexible running style and her rider and trainer currently have a hot hand. She’s also won at Keeneland. While she does have a lot of upside, she’s facing older for the first time and will have to improve on her good form in this crowd.
2. Frivolous (30-1) – Upset winner of the Grade 2 Fleur DeLis ran a dull 4th last out in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland. Most of her best efforts this year have come when she’s been able to sit close to the pace, and she should be able to secure a good spot here given her post. She’s put in a couple of nice works over the track but she’d have to take a big step forward here.
3. Salama (50-1) – This previously Peruvian-trained mystery filly shipped to the barn of Charles LoPresti, trainer of Wise Dan, and prepped with an allowance over the track at Keeneland where she finished a closing 2nd. While she’s a wildcard and deserving longshot, she has won at longer distances and gets one of the meet’s leading riders in Julien Leparoux. An upset is very unlikely, but she could add interest to your exotic tickets.
4. Stopchargingmaria (5-1) – WINNER – Last out in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign the winner of the Grade 3 Shuvee weakened in the stretch after uncharacteristically setting the pace. Since then she’s been freshened and appears to be back on her game, making a great impression in the morning. She’s flexible enough to be a part of the pace scenario or stalk and she’s proven in a duel. She would not be a surprise winner and at the very least she should be on your exotic tickets.
5. Calamity Kate (30-1) – The upset winner of the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks followed up with a respectable 2nd to I’m a Chatterbox in the Grade 1 Cotillion. In both cases she got the lead early, and not uncontested lead either. Given that she’s inside the other front-runners (My Sweet Addiction, Wedding Toast and Yahilwa) she could very well get the jump on them. While it’s a big step up, especially facing older for the first time, she could definitely hang on for a piece the action.
6. My Sweet Addiction (20-1) – The Grade 1 Vanity winner and likely pace scenario participant gives Kentucky another try after being eased in the stretch of the Grade 2 Fleur DeLis in the spring. Since then she’s had pesky Beholder to deal with in California, running a “best of the rest” 2nd to her last out in the Grade 1 Zenyatta. This is no easy spot for a front runner given all the other speed, but if you like her she’ll be a great price!
7. Wedding Toast (4-1) – The morning line favorite comes in on back-to-back Grade 1 wins as the lone speed where the track was playing to her running style. She won’t get an easy lead in this crowd, especially with Calamity Kate just to her inside, but she has won by stalking the pace in the past. She’s also a perfect 3-3 at the distance, although her lone race at Keeneland was a flop. She would not be a surprise in the mix, especially if she stalks, but she’ll have to fight for it in this crowd.
8. Curalina (12-1) – SHOW (3rd) – The Grade 1 Acorn winner ran a respectable 2nd to Wedding Toast last out in the Grade 1 Beldame, especially considering that Wedding Toast was a gate to wire winner with an uncontested lead. The plethora of potential pacesetters in this field should create a more favorable scenario for Curalina (and the other off-the-pace types). She appears to be coming into the race in great shape, getting favorable reviews in the morning, and could be a good addition to your exotic tickets.
9. Stellar Wind (12-1) – PLACE (2nd) – The Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks winners comes in under the radar after taking a couple of months off. Perhaps her biggest question is whether or not she can ship in and win. Her last race outside her homebase of California this year resulted in a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Oaks as the favorite (albeit a fast closing 4th), her only loss this year. She’s got a similarly wide post here as she did in the Oaks, but she does have a nice late kick and should be a great price if you like her.
10. Yahilwa (20-1) – She may have only won one race this year, but the Grade 3 Sixty Sails winner has put in some respectable efforts against top fillies, including Beholder. Her best effort may have been last out in the Grade 1 Spinster where she set the pace and dueled and with Untapable for the length of the stretch to finish 3rd by a neck to Got Lucky, who nipped the dueling pair on the wire. She doesn’t need to lead to perform well, which could be a good move given her post and all the speed to her inside. She’s been training up a storm at Keeneland, and if she can move forward she might just steal this race.
12. Got Lucky (6-1) – The Grade 1 Spinster winner seems to be a late bloomer with three wins in four starts since the summer. While she is on the improve, it’s worth noting that her last two efforts, the win in the Spinster and a 2nd behind Sheer Drama in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, both came with pace meltdowns. The good news for her is that could happen here as well, although she won’t be the only one trying to make the most of it.
13. Warren’s Veneda (30-1) – The Grade 1 Santa Margarita winner started off the year with a bang, notching three wins but has been winless in five starts since. In her last three starts she’s finished a combined 30 lengths behind the winner. She is talented, a big reveral of form here would be a surprise.
14. Sheer Drama (9-2) – 4th – The second choice on the morning line comes in on back to back Grade 1 wins in the Personal Ensign and Delaware Handicap. Last out in the Personal Ensign she stalked a speedy pace and dueled briefly before putting away Untapable. She’s sat close to the pace in her last two but has performed well from the off the pace too. If you think she can overcome the post position she should have plenty of speed to target.
13. Peace and War (30-1) – Last year’s Grade 1 Alcibiades winner at Keeneland is looking for her first win this year after five starts. Her best effort was two back, running a game 2nd to Calamity Kate in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks. She displayed a nice turn of foot but couldn’t get there in time. She appears to be on the improve and the added distance will help, but it’s a big step up.
Untapable, originally drawn as #11, scratched out of the race.
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