March 6, 2010 Derby Prep Alert Charts and PPs provided by Brisnet

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Hello Race Fans!

While this is a relatively slow week for Kentucky Derby and Oaks preps, the Future Wagers are back! Pool two of the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers and the only pool for the Kentucky Oaks Future Wagers open today at noon. Both pools close on Sunday March 7: the Derby pool closes at 6pm ET and the Oaks pool closes at 6:30pm ET.

As is usually the case, pool two features plenty of new wagering interests. The new horses in pool two are Caracortado, Connemara, D’ Funnybone, Discreetly Mine, Nextdoorneighbor, Odysseus, Radiohead, Setsuko, Sidney’s Candy, and Tempted to Tapit. The Daily Racing Form offers free past performances and a list of all the wagering interests for both pools, including the closing odds in pool one for the Derby Futures.

A few reminders from pool one:

1. Wait until as close to the pool closes as possible. Just like with any race, the odds change as the money comes in and won’t be final until the pool closes, so if your horse opens at 50-1 and goes down to 12-1, you might want to look elsewhere. Likewise, if you place your wager at 20-1 and the odds are 10-1 when the pool closes, you’re holding a 10-1 ticket, not a 20-1 ticket.

2. Be wary of taking early favorites at a short price. At this point in the game, you should STILL be looking for decent and/or big prices; you can adjust this strategy as it gets closer to the Derby and you know more about each of the horses. Similarly, it’s a good idea to stay away from the “All other 3-year-olds” option as it usually ends up at a short price. While typically not as short a price as in the first pool, this option is the morning line favorite in pool two at 7/2.

3. You don’t have to play big to have fun; a couple of $2 bets here and there is a safe way to have a little fun early without worrying too much about whether your horse or horses are going to make it to the gate.

Make sure to check out the Future Wager FAQ.

The top three positions are unchanged from last week in our Road to the Roses contest:
1) Shaena Kershner’s Space Gal Stables (68)
2) Teresa Genaro’s Brooklyn Backstretch (65)
3) Eugene Kershner’s EquiSpace (63)

Upcoming Races – March 6
Gotham Stakes, Aqueduct
March 6, Race 10, Post Time 5:12 PM ET
Website | Twitter
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Dirt

This Saturday, Aqueduct hosts the 60th renewal of the Gotham Stakes. Though the race boasts notable winners – Easy Goer in 1989, General Assembly in 1979, Dr. Fager in 1967 – only one Gotham winner also won the Kentucky Derby: Secretariat, in 1973. Last year’s winner, I Want Revenge, was the Derby favorite but was injured and scratched on the day of the race.

This year’s field lacks the promise of last year’s, and few people will be surprised if the Derby gate opens without any Gotham runners in it. Returning are the top three finishers from last month’s Whirlaway. It’s hard to know how seriously to take Peppi Knows’ win, given the behavior of the favorite, Eightyfiveinafifty, and how his absence after the first turn changed the dynamics of the race. That said, Peppi Knows owns a win and a good second to Buddy’s Saint in last fall’s Remsen – though again, that performance might raise questions, given Buddy’s Saint’s performance in the Fountain of Youth.

Also coming back from the Whirlaway is Todd Pletcher’s Three Day Rush. Carried out when Eightyfiveinafifty bolted, he closed well to be a distant third. Fair to throw out that race, but also note that in his only attempt beyond six furlongs-and only stakes attempt – Three Day Rush finished fifth.

Richard Dutrow comes to the Gotham with Yawanna Twist, undefeated in two lifetime races. He stretches out for the first time and loses regular jockey Ramon Dominguez, who gets the call on shipper Turf Melody. Yawanna Twist won comfortably in both previous starts and it’s not as if getting Edgar Prado is a bad thing.

Turf Melody scratched out of the Whirlaway, in which he might have been the beneficiary of the hot pace Eightyfiveinafifty was expected to set. He looks to be a versatile type, with one win on the lead, one stalking, and one closing. He gets top rider Dominguez, and though he’s run on all three surfaces, he’s done his best work on dirt, winning a Remington stakes race. Keep in mind that trainer H. Graham Motion doesn’t ship in carelessly.

Winning the “farthest traveler” award for shipping in from England, the most intriguing entry is Awesome Act, making his first start on dirt. He raced five times on the turf last year in England, winning once (1-2-1) and finishing a close fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He’s been off since then, and Julien Leparoux, currently third in the jockey standings at Gulfstream, gets the mount.

The lightly raced Nacho Friend has been working well at Palm Meadows and ships in for his first route attempt and first start since a fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Sanford last July. Major players IEAH go to the gate with I’ve Got The Fever, coming in off a maiden win at Aqueduct in his fifth try. He’s got route experience and hit the board the board in three of five tries. Shrimp Dancer has run like clockwork since last summer, hitting the board in six of seven starts at various distances and over various surfaces. He’s still got only a maiden win, but in his most recent start, he was beaten just a head after racing wide around the final turn and getting bumped in the lane.

The Whirlaway’s second place finisher, Afleet Again, comes back from Philly for another crack at the Aqueduct inner track; Afleet Again has hit the board in four of his five last five starts after taking four tries to break his maiden. He’s been racing around two turns since his second start last September.

Second only to Awesome Act in the surprise entry category is D. Wayne Lukas’s Wow Wow Wow. As pointed out in the Daily Racing Form, Wow Wow Wow is the first Lukas inner track starter since 2007. He owns two wins from seven starts, and finished eighth in his only stakes try. He comes to the Gotham off a four length win at Oaklawn Park in an optional claimer and boasts a bullet work at that track last weekend.

  – Teresa Genaro, Brooklyn Backstretch

Further Reading:

  Gotham Stakes Stakes – NYRA

Sham Stakes, Santa Anita
March 6, Race 7, Post Time 6:07 PM ET
Website | Twitter
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Synthetic

Started only in 2001, the Sham Stakes has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner. Named after the winner of the 1973 Santa Anita Derby who’s best known for his second place efforts in the Derby and Preakness to the 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat, the race is contested at a 1 1/8 miles. The most notable winner, Colonel John (2008), went into the Kentucky Derby as the second choice to Big Brown and finished sixth but won the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, also known as the “Midsummer Derby,” later in the year.

The 10 horse field for this year’s rendition of the Sham are all maiden and first level allowance winners with the exception of Wolf Tail, whose only win was in the $100,000 Graduation Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs over the summer at Del Mar. While it doesn’t seem like there are any Derby starters in the group, a few entrants are intriguing, most notably Darley Stables’ Kettle River, who comes in for trainer Eoin Harty off a two-race win streak. He missed a week of training earlier in the month but has been working well.

Outlaw Man also seems very plausible, having won his last race at the distance on the turf. This is his first attempt at synthetics after three in the money starts on turf and one fifth place finish on dirt at Saratoga. Trainer Ken McPeek has a notable 25% success rate with a turf to synthetic move. Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella has an even more notable 32% success rate with this move, which augurs well for his entry of Setsuko, who comes in off a second place finish by a half a length on the turf at the distance. Also bolstering Setsuko’s chances is the series of endurance works after his near miss at the distance last out.

Bob Baffert’s The Program comes in off a first level allowance win earlier in the month and boasts a solid work tab. Maiden winner Alphie’s Bet ran a respectable second to Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado in the California Breeders’ Championship and has posted some nice endurance works since his last win at a mile. Nextdoorneighbor, stable mate to Caracortado, also comes in off a maiden win and posted a shocking six furlong work on Feb 15 of 1:10 3/5.

With no clear speed in the field, a horse like Nextdoorneighbor could potentially use the same technique that worked so well for Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star, by setting a very slow pace and therefore making it harder for the rest of the field to rally. On the other hand, most of this bunch have performed their best under moderate to slow pace scenarios, not to mention that the proven turf runners are already accustomed to this sort of running style.

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:

  Sham Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Sham – Wikipedia Entry

Santa Anita Oaks, Santa Anita
March 6, Race 8, Post Time 6:38 PM ET
Website | Twitter
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 1   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Synthetic

The Santa Anita Oaks has been the springboard for not only the Kentucky Oaks, but also the Santa Anita Derby and Triple Crown races. Most notably, 1988 winner Winning Colors went on to win both the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby. 2007 winner Rags to Riches went on to win the Kentucky Oaks and Belmont Stakes. 1959 winner Silver Spoon won the Santa Anita Derby and finished a respectable fifth in the Kentucky Derby, and 1995 winner Serena’s Song won the Jim Beam (now Lane’s End) Kentucky Derby prep race and the Haskell Stakes, both against colts. Additionally, Lite Light (1991), Bold’n Determined (1980), Susan’s Girl (1972) and Blue Norther (1964) all wore the garland of lilies after winning the Kentucky Oaks.

It remains to be seen whether the heavily favored and Triple Crown nominated Blind Luck will continue on the path to the Kentucky Oaks or try open company, perhaps in the form of the Santa Anita Derby on April 3. No doubt the outcome of this race will signal if she’s ready to try tougher competition. While she comes in off an impressive win last out and is proven at the distance, one never knows when a huge effort can come from an unlikely entrant.

Crisp returns and adds blinkers after finishing a lackluster fourth in the Las Virgenes. She’s two for two at the distance and has put in two impressive works. The race looks devoid of any pace with All Due Respect seeming like the mostly likely to step up. All Due Respect might demand some respect if her blazing fast works are any indication of what’s to come since transferring to the high percentage barn of Kathy Walsh. Riviera Chic, a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, jets in from across the pond. She also has recently been transferred to a new trainer, James Lloyd, who has an impressive 33% success rate with horses making their first start in North America.

Other entrants include Warren’s Jitterbug, who doesn’t look too daunting on paper but who finished a close second to Evening Jewel in the California Breeders’ Championship and has run in the money (first, second or third) in eight of nine starts. You may remember that Evening Jewel almost upset Blind Luck last out in the Las Virgenes. Team Zenyatta enters Cozi Rosie, who comes in off two wins at the distance, and Graham Motion enters Zilva, who has lost her last three starts in Grade 1 company.

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:

  Santa Anita Oaks – Wikipedia Entry
  Rags to Riches – Wikipedia Entry
  Winning Colors – Wikipedia Entry
  Blind Luck – Horse Racing Nation

Recaps – Feb 27
Davona Dale, Gulfstream Park
Feb 27, Race 8, Post Time 4:43 PM ET
Website | Twitter
Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Amen Hallelujah   |   Place: Joanie’s Catch   |   Show: Mambo Fever

Even with the scratches of promising fillies Christine Daae and Female Drama, the Davona Dale more than met pre-race expectations. The entire field broke well and ran as a pack for the first quarter before Bickersons and Amen Hallelujah pulled away from the field. Battling one another around the final turn, Bickersons cracked first, and as they entered the stretch, Amen Hallelujah took the lead on the inside stretch and won convincingly by over six lengths. Bickersons tired and was passed on the inside by the ever-game Joanie’s Catch (completely underestimated at 26-1) and on the outside by 15-1 longshot Mambo Fever. Sassy’s Image showed good early speed but could not run with these after going three-wide around the final turn. Comic Marvel was far outclassed, finishing nearly 40 lengths back of the winner.

Needless to say, Amen Hallelujah passed her first dirt test with flying colors and looks to be a major Kentucky Oaks contender. On Sunday, the Giant’s Causeway filly Christine Daae impressively won a 1-1/8 mile first level allowance race at Gulfstream. According to her trainer Patrick Biancone, she may appear next in the Grade 2 Bonnie Miss Stakes on March 20, in a much-anticipated matchup with Amen Hallelujah.

Full Results and Replay

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:

  Davona Dale Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Amen Hallelujah – Horse Racing Nation
  Bickersons – Horse Racing Nation
  Christine Daae – Horse Racing Nation
  Joanie’s Catch – Horse Racing Nation
  Sassy Image – Horse Racing Nation

Borderland Derby, Sunland Park
Feb 27, Race 10, Post Time 6:41 PM ET
Website
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Stakes   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $100,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Storming Saint   |   Place: Raise the Bridle   |   Show: Amen Baby

The Borderland Derby was essentially a two-horse race, as stablemates Storming Saint and Raise the Bridle finished nearly 9 lengths ahead of the third place finisher (and former claimer) Amen Baby, who just nosed out Penn National import Haitian Hero.

Both Henry Dominguez trainees bumped and jostled each other down the stretch, with 16-1 longshot maiden Raise the Bridle winning by a neck, only to be disqualified to second after a stewards’ inquiry and objection. Both colts are likely to reappear in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby on March 28, although Dominguez is quoted in a recent Bloodhorse.com story as saying, “We really have some great expectations for them. We are going to start looking around at all of the graded stakes, not just the Sunland Derby.” Interestingly, in that same article, Dominguez says he believes that Storming Saint can be a Grade 3 horse, but uses “exceptional” to describe Raise the Bridle, an April 2009 Ocala Breeders’ Sales purchase ($120,000) (pdf) by Double Eagle Ranch–the same connections that own Mine That Bird, second place finisher in last year’s Borderland Derby and, of course, subsequent Kentucky Derby victor.

Full Results and Replay

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:

  Borderland Derby – Wikipedia Entry



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