This year’s edition features a large field of 11, including Jody Slew who won both local prep races, the Tiffany Lass and Silverbulletday Stakes, but who remains questionable for this race after being cast in her stall last week and losing precious training time. Silverbulletday runner-up Quiet Temper retains jockey Robbie Albarado and will break from the rail, right next to last-out winner Sheer Beauty, who vied early for contention in the Tiffany Lass before finishing well back.

Todd Pletcher-trained Ailalea has been installed as the lukewarm morning line favorite, but last year’s Grade 3 Tempted Stakes victress didn’t impress last out in the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream. Based on her form relative to Amen Hallelujah and Joanie’s Catch, Mambo Fever looks tremendous here in her third start this year. Her trainer Tony Dutrow adds blinkers to her for the first time, a very successful angle for him, producing nearly 30% winners, and 54% in the money (ITM) finishes. Both Camille’s Appeal and Visavis have distance questions to answer, but their connections (trainers Steve Asmussen and Stephen Margolis respectively) shouldn’t be discounted.

Longer shots that may step up here include Champagne D’Oro, who raced six times last year in California without a win, including distant Grade 1 finishes in the Del Mar Futurity (against males) and in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Transferring to Fair Grounds in January, she finally broke her maiden in a six furlong event on Feb 20, and has posted two bullet workouts since. Another last-out maiden winner, Seeking The Title, crushed that field by over six lengths in a very strong time. Trainer Dallas Stewart gets big-time jockey Kent Desormeaux to ride this well-bred miss whose dam Title Seeker is an unraced daughter of the great undefeated mare Personal Ensign.

– Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

First run in 2000 over dirt at the now demolished Nad Al Sheba, the UAE Derby has sent six starters to the Kentucky Derby. Inaugural winner China Visit finished sixth in the 2000 Kentucky Derby, the best result to date. In 2009, Godolphin sent Regal Ransom and Desert Party, the 1-2 finishers in the UAE Derby, to Churchill Downs. Widely considered the best Derby contenders to come out of Dubai in nine years, Regal Ransom finished eighth and Desert Party fourteenth.

This year, the UAE Derby, which is being run for the first time at 1 3/16 miles over Tapeta at the new Meydan, has drawn 14 starters, including the undefeated Mendip, the likely favorite with 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Vale of York out following a bout of colic. Mendip, making his fourth career start, is proven at the distance having won the March 4 Al Bastakiya, but he’ll face sharp competition from Raihana, winner of the February 25 UAE Oaks, and Musir, stretching out off a 3 1/4 length win in the February 18 Group 3 UAE 2000 Guineas.

Also stretching out is the lightly raced filly Makaanah, starting off a win in the Group 1 King Abdulaziz Cup last month, and Frozen Power, who finished second to Musir in the 2000 Guineas and then returned to win the Meydan Classic on March 5. Della Barba, the third-place finisher in the 2000 Guineas, set the pace in his next race, the Al Bastakiya, in which he finished second by 6 1/4 lengths to Mendip. With the only other early speed possibly coming from Timely Jazz, the Meydan Classic runner-up, Della Barba seems likely to serve as pace-setter again in the UAE Derby.

– Jessica Chapel, Railbird

Dean’s Kitten is one of several ‘Kittens’ sired by Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s turf star Kitten’s Joy; he’s been unlucky thus far on grass, but trainer Mike Maker
thinks the surface and extra distance should be to his liking. Cornelio Velasquez has the mount. Bill Mott will send out Chief Counsel, who has done well at sprinting distances, but this may be a bit further than he would like to go.

Eoin Harty’s Kettle River showed little as a favorite in the Sham Stakes and is looking to rebound, while Northern Giant, who rounded out the trifecta in the Risen Star, is aiming to get D. Wayne Lukas, who won this race with Serena’s Song, back in the Derby picture – although he probably has a stronger hand with Dublin, who already has the needed earnings. Kenny McPeek is hoping that his Sham Stakes alumnus, Outlaw Man, improves on his fourth-place effort; Alex Solis will ride him again.

Also possible for the race are maiden Letsgetitonmon from Steve Asmussen’s barn, and Vow to Wager, trained by Dale Romans. Vow to Wager does have a win over this track, although it came when he was placed first in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes after finishing a troubled second to the disqualified Codoy.
Former claimer Ranger Heartley is also in the mix, although the John Sadler trainee may be up against it here.

While Connemara looks like the class of the field, last weekend’s 3-year-old results remind us that anything can happen in horse racing, especially when every horse in the field needs a good result (and the graded stakes earnings that come with it) to ensure a Derby berth.

– Lisa Grimm, Superfecta Blog

This year’s renewal of the Louisiana Derby sees Discreetly Mine returning to defend his front running win in the Risen Star. It looks as though he won’t get away with slow fractions on the front end this time, with the inclusion of Wow Wow Wow and The Program. Discreetly Mine’s trainer Todd Pletcher has said that he thinks Discreetly Mine will do even better with a target to run at, but others will benefit from a faster scenario as well. Chief among them are LeComte winner Ron the Greek, who closed from last in the Risen the Star but couldn’t get up in time given the crawl up front.

Another interesting off the pace type is the lightly raced Fly Down, who comes in off a decent first level allowance win at Gulfstream at the distance and who should appreciate the pace. The Risen Star favorite Drosselmeyer should also benefit from a faster pace, and, given his post position at 13, he might look to sit even further off the pace than normal. The full field also includes Hotep, Mission Impazible, A Little Warm, Island Soul, Stay Put, Mister Marti Gras and Backtrack.

Given the outcome of last week’s Florida’s Derby, you can’t count out a surprise ending here. Discreetly Mine is the only starter in the bunch with solid earnings, and this race will more than likely be the last shot for this group to make enough money to get in the gate in Derby day.

– Dana Byerly, Green but Game

This year’s event features undefeated Grade 3 Southwest Stakes winner Conveyance, who has yet to be tested over one mile. His sire Indian Charlie did finish third in the Kentucky Derby but has a reputation for siring sprinters, so Conveyance’s demonstrated early speed may indicate distance limitations. The other early speed horse is Tempted To Tapit, runner-up to Discreetly Mine in the Grade 2 Risen Star; his form last year against next-out Count Fleet Stakes winner Laus Deo and recent Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Schoolyard Dreams is a big positive, as are his strong workouts since his last race. Unlike the other shippers, Kelly Breen-trained Nacho Friend has worked over the Sunland track in preparation for this task and should fare better than his third place effort in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes against the very promising Derby contender Awesome Act after a seven month layoff.

Trainer Doug O’Neill ships in Grade 2 San Vincente third place finisher Classical Slew, who has never run on real dirt. The same is true of Fog Alert, who led the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby (at the same 1 1/8 mile distance as the Sunland Derby) before being passed in the stretch to finish fourth. Of the three local horses that came out of the Borderland Derby, only winner Storming Saint offers any chance of hitting the board here, but he appears a step or two slower than most of the shippers.

Most intriguing is recent maiden winner Endorsement, who has demonstrated a quick late kick in both his distance races this year. The fact that jockey Martin Garcia jumps off him in favor of Conveyance doesn’t bother me, as Endorsement gains the services of Robbie Albarado. With three strong works since his last race, including a five furlong sub-one minute bullet workout, well-bred Endorsement could pull a major upset.

– Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

What makes this race impressive is that not only did these 3-year-old fillies outrun (1:49.06) older mares in the next race, the Grade 3 Rampart Stakes (1:49.36), but they also travelled faster than the 3-year-old males in the Grade 1 Florida Derby (1:49.19) four races later, albeit in slower fractions late. The slow late pace, however, was at least in part a result of Devil May Care running a bit erratically after taking the lead in the stretch, leading Pletcher to voice aloud the possibility of adding blinkers to her in her next start, the April 30 Kentucky Oaks. Only Amen Hallelujah is also confirmed for the Oaks.

Full Results and Replay

– Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

– Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

When Ice Box crossed the wire first at 20/1 and Pleasant Prince came across second at 29/1, that potential for chaos became a reality, as the two colts were the second and third longest shots on the board.
Oddly enough, the real winner on the day was Eskendereya, who crushed Ice Box and Pleasant Prince in last month’s Fountain of Youth by a combined 22 lengths and solidified his legitimacy as a Kentucky Derby favorite without running a step on Saturday.
The top two finishers, plus third place finisher Rule, all with the necessary graded earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby, will point next to Churchill and the First Saturday in May.

Full Results and Replay

– Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost