As the final major stakes race for 3-year-old fillies at Gulfstream, the Bonnie Miss typically produces serious Kentucky Oaks contenders, such as last year’s winner Justwhistledixie, who unfortunately had to be scratched the morning of the Oaks due to a foot abscess, thus clearing the way for Rachel Alexandra’s record-setting 20-length romp. 1998 winner Banshee Breeze finished second to Keeper Hill in the Oaks, but won three Grade 1 races that summer to wrap up the Eclipse Award for champion 3-year-old filly. Davona Dale (1979) and Open Mind (1989) won both the Bonnie Miss and Kentucky Oaks en route to winning the Eclipse. Other important Bonnie Miss winners include 1982 champion 3-year-old filly Christmas Past, Hall of Fame inductee Inside Information (1994), and Belmont Stakes third-place finisher My Flag (1996).

This year’s edition features a small field of six, yet it is very possible the Oaks winner is among them. Amen Hallelujah enters off a dominating six length victory in the Davona Dale at Gulfstream, and she is twice Grade 1-placed. The only concern is that she has never won over one mile or run this distance. However, her dam did win the 1 1/8 mile Calder Oaks.

As a daughter of Giant’s Causeway, Christine Daae is bred to run all day, and her last race was won with ease at this distance. She’s a huge threat to become this year’s superstar filly, but this will be her first test against stakes company. Devil May Care won the Grade 1 Frizette last year before failing horribly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride artificial surface. Back on real dirt for the first time this year in the Grade 3 Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds, she didn’t impress, as she may have expended too much energy being fractious in the gate with a new jockey. With even-tempered John Velazquez back aboard, this filly should be a major factor as, like Christine Daae, she is bred to run long distances.

From California, John Sadler ships in Switch, who’s never run on real dirt but who is Grade 1-placed, finishing a narrow third, only one-half length behind Blind Luck in the Las Virgenes Stakes last out. For the Florida home team, Joanie’s Catch returns off her second place finish to Amen Hallelujah in the Davona Dale. She’s not as flashy in breeding or connections as the others, but don’t count her out. In 16 starts, she’s only finished out of the money twice, and not since last August, with three consecutive second place finishes in graded stakes company. She’s a gutsy filly with breeding to handle the distance. The rank outsider is Danny’s Friend, who just doesn’t have enough positives going for her to even be considered a longshot possibility.

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:

  Bonnie Miss – Wikipedia
  Davona Dale – Wikipedia
  Inside Information – Wikipedia
  My Flag – Wikipedia

The Swale Stakes is 7 furlong sprint race run over the dirt at Gulfstream Park. Since its inauguration in 1985, few colts have run in the Swale and had significant impact during the Triple Crown series. The exception is Easy Goer, who made his 3-year-old debut in the Swale and finished a heartbreaking second in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before winning the Belmont Stakes. Steve Haskin recently wrote about the change in Derby prep training that has practically eliminated the practice of debuting 3-year-old Derby prospects in sprint races.

Because of this change, the Swale, especially in recent years, has been dominated almost exclusively by 3-year-old sprinters. Having said that, some nice sprinters have won the race recently, including Lost in the Fog in 2005. The race was named for Swale, who won the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Belmont Stakes in 1984. He died suddenly of an apparent heart attack just a few weeks after his win in the Belmont.

This year’s Swale will have an overwhelming favorite in D’Funnybone, who won the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream in February. His competition in the nine horse field includes four colts that he has previously beaten, including Iboyee, who finished third in the Hutcheson, just two lengths back of the winner. D’Funnybone is a multiple graded stakes winner and has run only one bad race in his career, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The only other graded stakes winner in the field is Dixie Band, who won the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity last September over Arlington Park’s synthetic surface. California-based trainer John Sadler will ship the 20-1 outsider Privilaged, who will be making his 3-year-old debut and trying dirt for the first time. Silver Craft finished a distant fourth to Rule in last month’s Sam Davis at Tampa. He has lots of improving to do, but he might be worth a look cutting back to a sprint distance.

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Futher Reading:

  Swale Stakes – Wikipedia Entry

The Florida Derby is one of the marquee preps for the Kentucky Derby. It is run at 1 1/8 miles over the Gulfstream Park oval. Since its inception in 1952, 18 colts who finished in the top three in the Florida Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Thirteen colts have won both races. This decade, Monarchos, Barbaro, and Big Brown won the Florida and Kentucky Derby.

Unfortunately, this year, a change in schedule has taken some of the luster off the Florida Derby. Gulfstream Park officials pushed the race back a week, putting it six weeks away from the First Saturday in May. When Barbaro won the Florida Derby five weeks out in 2005, many questioned trainer Mike Matz’s decision to train his colt up to Derby day. Barbaro was the first horse to win the Derby off a five week layoff since Needles in 1956. The change of the schedule this year resulted in the defection of Eskendereya, the winner of the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. His owner opted to run in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4.

While the race might not have one of the favorites to win the roses in May, it has drawn a decent field of colts. The likely favorite is Rule for trainer Todd Pletcher. Rule is coming off a win in the Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa on February 13. In the Sam Davis, Rule beat Schoolyard Dreams, who lost the Tampa Bay Derby last weekend by a nostril. Rule has won four races in a row since breaking his maiden, including a win the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot last December.

Radiohead is an intriguing entry off an impressive allowance win in his 3-year-old debut. He is a Group 2 winner in England but drew a tough outside post position for the Florida Derby and there has been some speculation about possible quarter crack issues (a condition related to a horse’s hooves). Radiohead’s trainer, Richard Dutrow, won the 2008 Florida Derby with another colt who had an outside post position and quarter crack problems. That colt, Big Brown, went on to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

The above mentioned entries are the only graded stakes winners in the field. A surprise entry is Lentenor, who is a full brother to Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro. Lentenor will be trying dirt for the first time and will have a large contingent of fans on the scene at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. He is 6-1 on the morning line and would no doubt create the most buzz if he could manage a win here.

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Futher Reading:

  Florida Derby – Wikipedia Entry

With the scratch of She Be Wild (allegedly due to her trainer anticipating poor track conditions), the Florida Oaks lost its star power, leaving it up to Diva Delite to win one for the home team. She didn’t disappoint. After newly-blinkered Mallory Square set dawdling early fractions with surprise second betting choice Cuff Me and 22-1 longshot C C’s Pal, jockey Rosemary Homeister Jr. sent Diva Delite to the lead around the final turn, and she pulled away for an easy two length victory. Runner-up C C’s Pal finished a half-length in front of Mallory Square with Cuff Me fourth.

Tesoro de Amor broke in the air, immediately giving up an eight length advantage to the field and thus ending any chance she had in this race, finishing ahead of only Miss Afleet Alex and Imaginary Saint who, after racing with the leaders early, was eased and merely galloped home.

Trainer and part owner David Vivian reportedly plans to rest Diva Delite, but is still uncertain as to whether or not they will attempt the Kentucky Oaks: “Right now I don’t know exactly what I’m going to do, but she’s run some hard races, and I’ve shipped her back and forth with two weeks apart and three weeks apart; she’s done a lot. She looks excellent, though, so I’m just going to play it by ear. I think she’s better than I think she is!”

As nice she is, Diva Delite hasn’t run outside of Florida or against top-tier competition, and, frankly, she is rather modestly bred for a Kentucky Oaks contender. However, you never know where brilliant gems may be hiding.

As for She Be Wild, that filly will next run in the April 3 Grade 1 Ashland Stakes, according to trainer Wayne Catalano. Was she truly scratched due to fears of a wet track, or because something’s amiss? Her last (and only dirt) effort was disappointing, and it is a big ask to expect a filly, no matter how quality, to prep so little for a major effort like the Kentucky Oaks. While Catalano’s Dreaming of Anna did win the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies title as mentioned in the linked article, she ran sixth in the Kentucky Oaks. Maybe She Be Wild is simply better on all-weather surfaces.

Full Results and Replay

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:

  Florida Oaks – Wikipedia

While this year’s Tampa Bay Derby may have been lacking star power going into the race, Odysseus certainly could become a star exiting it with a fascinating victory in his first graded stakes start.

As expected, Super Saver set the early pace followed closely by the newly blinkered Uptowncharlybrown and Odysseus to the outside. Then, with the field entering the far turn, Odysseus appeared to be going the wrong way as he was passed by Schoolyard Dreams and Gleam of Hope as both of those made wide, sweeping moves toward Super Saver’s lead.

At the top of the stretch, it was anyone’s race. Super Saver gave way slightly to Schoolyard Dreams at first, but Odysseus, still keeping to his task, couldn’t find a lane to run through. Rider Rajiv Maragh guided Odysseus off the rail but was shut off by Schoolyard Dreams in front of him and Gleam of Hope to his flank. Then, with a sixteenth of a mile left, Odysseus found a seam outside of Super Saver and, by the slimmest of margins, got his nose down at the wire inside of Schoolyard Dreams.

In overcoming adversity in the lane, Odysseus stamped himself a legitimate contenter for the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Tom Albertrani has left his options open in regards to Odysseus’ next stop. He could opt to take him to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 4 or even train Odysseus up to the Kentucky Derby itself, provided that Odysseus’s current graded stakes earnings are enough to get to the Derby’s entrybox, which seems unlikely.

Second place finisher Schoolyard Dreams will take the same path that stablemate Musket Man took last year. He will be pointed toward the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne on April 4. With every race Schoolyard Dreams has made a small advancement on the previous effort. He’s coloring a nice book of versatility in coming from off the pace here as opposed to being closer up in the Sam Davis. Certainly one to keep an eye on going forward.

The post time favorite and third place finisher Super Saver ran deceptively well considering his long layoff. He was in the mix right until the last strides and figures to improve off this useful effort wherever trainer Todd Pletcher takes him next on the trail.

Full Results and Replay

  – Chris Rossi, @o_crunk

Further Reading:

  Tampa Bay Derby – Wikipedia

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For awhile it appeared that Decelerator would capture a sixth Honeybee for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, but the long Oaklawn stretch proved too much for her, as stakes newcomer No Such Word cruised past her to an easy win, and thus vindicated jockey Terry Thompson’s choice to remain on the winner rather than Decelerator.

First up off a long layoff, Beautician did well in finishing second, while Tap Tap Tapping made a nice late rush to pass Decelerator for third. Rather than hanging back to finish strong late as she did in her last two starts, Bell’s Shoes went with Decelerator and Tiz Miz Sue early with disappointing results, as she faded to sixth, a neck behind fifth place finisher Tiz Miz Sue.

Three key handicapping angles were demonstrated perfectly in this race. First, no matter how high quality a competitor, it is difficult to win against in-form horses when running first off a break like Beautician did. All things considered, her runner-up effort was solid.

Second, jockey changes are always an important factor to consider, although you may not know for certain why those changes are made. Terry Thompson regularly rode for Larry Jones and, now that Jones is retired, Thompson continues to ride for Larry’s wife Cindy, who trains No Such Word. As a handicapper, you must weigh whether Thompson jumped off a Grade 2 placed filly (Decelerator) out of loyalty to Jones, or because he was confident that he’d chosen to ride the better horse. Either way, he ended up a winner this day.

Third, it always pays to consider not just the race level, but also the quality of a horse’s last race out. In my preview for this race, I mentioned that No Such Word and Tap Tap Tapping came out of an Oaklawn allowance race where the final fractions were much faster on a sloppy track than the previous day’s Martha Washington race. Both fillies demonstrated that same turn of foot in this race, which bodes well for their chances in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn on April 3.

Full Results and Replay

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:
  Beautician – Horse Racing Nation
  Decelerator – Horse Racing Nation
  No Such Word – Horse Racing Nation
  Tap Tap Tapping – Horse Racing Nation

Website | Twitter

Lookin at Lucky’s adventurous and impressive win in the Rebel Stakes in Oaklawn will no doubt solidify his position at the top of many Derby contender lists. Trying dirt for the first time, coming off a long layoff, adding blinkers, and racing against a rival (Noble’s Promise) who had been within spitting distance of him in the last two races–Lucky overcame all of this, plus an incident in the backstretch where he broke stride and nearly fell.

Noble’s Promise, who caused the incident with Lucky on the backstretch, repelled a challenge from third place finisher Dublin but was caught near the wire by the determined winner. Dublin moved in sync with Noble’s Promise around the final turn but flattened out to finish an non-threatening third. This year’s running of the Rebel was the fastest since Smarty Jones in 2004.

So far, Lookin at Lucky has passed all of the tests, and his race in the Rebel stands as one of the most solid performances of the 2010 Derby prep season so far. Trainer Bob Baffert said after the race that he would point his colt to either the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3 or the Arkansas Derby one week later.

Full Results and Replay

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Further Reading:

  Rebel Stakes – Wikipedia

Doing what’s frequently referred to as “lulling them to sleep on the front end,” Sidney’s Candy took one step closer to the run for the roses with an impressive win in the San Felipe. Similar to Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star, Sidney’s Candy made a clean break and set a slow pace with no real pressure; he was able to pull away in the end.

American Lion was never far behind and started to apply pressure about half way through. Interactif was perfectly positioned at the rail in third while Caracortado was wide in fourth. When Sidney’s Candy poured it on and started to pull away, Caracortado was also full of run but was floated wide and had a lot of ground to make up. Interactif was a closing second and Caracortado’s winning streak came to an end as he finished a respectable third.

Should all go well between now and then, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3 will be the next stop for Sidney’s Candy, and possibly others.

Full Results and Replay

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:

  San Felipe Stakes – Wikipedia Entry