March 13, 2010 Derby Prep Alert Charts and PPs provided by Brisnet

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Hello Race Fans!

While there are plenty of great races this weekend, all Derby trail eyes will be on Oaklawn as the 2009 Juvenile champ Lookin at Lucky makes his 3-year-old debut. Can he sustain his good form and move forward as 3-year-old? More on this below.

Two other races are of keen interest to racing fans far and wide, the return of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes at Fair Grounds and undefeated super-mare Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita at Santa Anita. These two powerhouses are prepping for their showdown in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn on April 9. While it’s a touch early to assume the showdown is a go, this Saturday will be the first step in that very exciting direction! A free live video stream of each race can be found at the NTRA site!

There were no surprises in the Futures as the field ended up being favored again in pool two. In the Oaks pool, Blind Luck ended up being favored at 4-1 with Amen Hallelujah at 6-1 and Christine Daae and the field at 7-1. Full final odds and projected payouts can be found at the Daily Racing Form.

Have you seen our series “Letters to a New Horseplayer“? We’ve compiled recommendations from industry professionals and regular players alike to help you as you embark on your fantastic journey of learning about the sport of kings. We’ve recently a published a new batch that includes contributions from Daily Racing Form publisher and author of Exotic Betting Steven Crist, who provides an introduction to wagering beyond win, place and show; from the Blood-Horse’s senior correspondent and Derby maven Steve Haskin, who helps you figure out how to identify your Derby horse; from filmmakers the Hennegan Brothers who give you the confidence you need; and from turf writer extraordinaire Claire Novak, who explains the attraction.

There’s been a shake-up in the Road to the Roses contest! Just like the Derby trail, seemingly out of nowhere there’s a new leader…

1. Shawnda Brown – Magnolia Madness II (89)
2. Shaena Kershner – Space Gal Stables (73)
3. Teresa Genaro – Brooklyn Backstretch (70)

Just like on the track, the females are dominating! Also, a quick reminder, this week kicks off the first supplemental draft, which starts Monday the 15th and runs through Friday the 19th. You can add three horses to your stable. Choose wisely!

Upcoming Races – March 13
Florida Oaks, Tampa Bay Downs
March 13, Race 9, Post Time 4:27PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $175,000   |   Surface: Dirt

First run in 1984, the Florida Oaks has graduated two winners who have gone on to victory in the Kentucky Oaks, Luv Me Luv Me Not (1992) and Secret Status (2000), while 1995 winner Sneaky Quiet finished third. Other quality fillies that emerged out of this race include 2006 winner Bushfire, who went on to win three Grade 1 races as a 3-year-old (the Ashland, Acorn and Mother Goose Stakes) and 2007 winner Cotton Blossom, who finished a troubled ninth in the Kentucky Oaks before rebounding to win the Acorn. However, perhaps the most illustrious alumna of this race is 1993 runner-up Hollywood Wildcat, who subsequently went on a five-race win streak, culminating with a victory over 1993 Triple Tiara winner Sky Beauty and fellow Hall of Famer Paseana in the 1993 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Last year’s 2-year-old champion filly She Be Wild gets a second shot at running on real dirt after finishing a disappointing fifth, nearly 10 lengths back, in the Grade 2 Forward Gal at Gulfstream. She’ll be ridden for the first time by Jose Lezcano, and if she runs up to her best is far superior to these. Home field advantage belongs to Diva Delite, who has won four straight including her last two (the Gasparilla and Suncoast Stakes) over this track, and no one knows this horse or course like jockey Rosemarie Homeister Jr. Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out high-priced ($325,000 Keeneland yearling purchase) Imaginary Saint, who looks to improve off her third place finish in the Suncoast with a jockey change to Ramon Dominguez, who jumps off his regular mount Cuff Me. With Kent Desormeaux picking up the ride of the well-named daughter of Officer, Cuff Me looks to have the best early speed, but she will also be trying beyond six furlongs for the first time.

Since transferring from Hall of Fame trainer Leroy Jolley to Tampa Bay’s leading trainer Kathleen O’Connell, Awesome Vow has broken her maiden in an off-the-turf race going this distance over this track and won a turf claimer last out. Hard to imagine her beating She Be Wild, but stranger things have happened. For a nice exotics play, consider Tesoro De Amor who, like superstar Rachel Alexandra, is a daughter of Medaglia D’oro. Her first two efforts on turf were uninspired, but she woke up big time going further than this in breaking her maiden on dirt, and she has the advantage of breaking from the rail.

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:

  Florida Oaks – Wikipedia

Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs
March 13, Race 11, Post Time 5:30PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $300,000   |   Surface: Dirt

For years, since its inauguration in 1981, the Tampa Bay Derby hadn’t held much sway on the road to the Kentucky Derby. From 1981 through 2003, only three winners had even started in the Kentucky Derby. But since Limehouse won the 2004 edition, every winner has made it to the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

The most notable of all its past winners is Street Sense, who set the stakes and track record in 2007 by narrowly defeating Any Given Saturday. Street Sense would later go on to win the Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes.

On its face, this year’s renewal doesn’t seem to have the star power of recent runnings. The biggest name and only previous graded stakes winner to fill the entry box is Super Saver. Having won the Kentucky Jockey Club in November, one of the premier races for 2-year-olds, Super Saver makes his seasonal debut here for Winstar Farm and Todd Pletcher – both no strangers to past success in this race. Super Saver’s maiden breaker and Kentucky Jockey Club wins were won in wire-to-wire fashion. A modest but steady worktab is on display in preparation for this race, and it would appear that he’s the lone speed in the race coming off the layoff.

The pair of Schoolyard Dreams and Uptowncharlybrown return after running second and third respectively in the Sam Davis. Uptowncharlybrown will add blinkers for the first time after a sluggish start but closing third in the Sam Davis. Trainer Alan Seewald has had some success with adding blinkers for a second try at two turns. Expect Uptowncharlybrown to be more involved early in the race with the added equipment.

Schoolyard Dreams was a mild surprise in the Sam Davis for owner Eric Fein and trainer Derek Ryan, the same connections as last year’s Tampa Bay Derby winner Musket Man. Schoolyard Dreams showed a bit of heart running close up to eventual winner Rule before fading slightly in the final furlong. Although not working in company, Uptowncharlybrown and Schoolyard Dreams have each posted two workouts on the same days since the Sam Davis with Schoolyard Dreams posting slightly faster times.

Odysseus seems like a horse on the rise as the distances increase, having won both of his starts thus far as a 3-year-old. In his last start, he defeated a first level allowance field by 15 lengths in his two-turn debut. This will be his first start against stakes competition, and his past running style suggests that he will be close to the front early.

Well traveled Tuvia’s Force will make this his fifth track in five starts and second start of his 3-year-old campaign. In his last at Gulfstream Park he was a fast closing third to stakes placed Wildcat Frankie. He sports a pair of bullet workouts at Palm Meadows in preparation and will get the riding services of Jose Lezcano, who won the Tampa Bay Downs riding title in 2006.

An uncoupled entry from trainer Anthony Reinstedler rounds out the field of seven. Both Gleam Of Hope and Slammy Boy enter off racing on turf. Gleam Of Hope was a distant eighth behind Super Saver in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He does show a bit of versatility having won sprinting, routing and on turf. He is also the only other stakes winner in the field, having won the Cradle stakes at River Downs in September. His stablemate, Slammy Boy, has only won on turf and will be making his two-turn route debut on dirt here.

  – Chris Rossi, @o_crunk

Further Reading:

  Tampa Bay Derby – Wikipedia

Honeybee Stakes, Oaklawn Park
March 13, Race 8, Post Time 5:42PM ET

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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $175,000   |   Surface: Dirt

Established in 1988 as a prep race for the Fantasy Stakes, the inaugural running featured 1987 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies champion Epitome and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity victress Lost Kitty, with the latter winning by four lengths. Since then, this race has produced some very good fillies, but never a Kentucky Oaks winner. Honeybee winners include Kentucky Oaks runners-up Imaginary Lady (1989), Dreams Gallore (1999) and Ermine (2006), as well as 2005 Acorn winner Round Pond and 2008 Kentucky Derby runner-up Eight Belles. Honeybee runners-up High Heels (2007) and Pure Clan (2008) both finished third in their respective Kentucky Oaks runs. Last year’s Fantasy was won by Rachel Alexandra, but she skipped the Honeybee, which was won by Larry Jones-trained Just Jenda.

This year’s field of nine features the return of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Beautician, Grade 1 placed on dirt in last year’s Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga. In addition to facing the daunting task of going 1 1/16 miles first up, Beautician must also face last out Martha Washington Stakes winner Decelerator, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, five-time winner of the Honeybee. In all, five fillies who ran in the Martha Washington return here, the most promising of which may be fast-closing third place finisher Bell’s Shoes, who should relish stretching out from one mile and drew a much more favorable post position. Newcomers to stakes company, the Cindy Jones-trained No Such Word and cleverly named Tapit filly Tap Tap Tapping show tremendous promise coming out of a sloppy allowance race at Oaklawn; they ran much faster late in that race than the Martha Washington field did one day prior on a dry track, particularly No Such Word who clearly cruised to victory after an early move on the backstretch.

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:

  Round Pond – Wikipedia
  Eight_Belles – Wikipedia
  Beautician – Horse Racing Nation
  Decelerator – Horse Racing Nation
  Bells Shoes – Horse Racing Nation
  No Such Word – Horse Racing Nation
  Tap Tap Tapping – Horse Racing Nation

Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Park
March 13, Race 10, Post Time 6:47PM ET

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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $300,000   |   Surface: Dirt

The Rebel Stakes, run at Oaklawn Park since 1961, first earned graded status in 1990. In 2004, a year after it lost its Grade 3 status, Smarty Jones won the Rebel on his way to winning the Arkansas Derby and the first two legs of the Triple Crown. It regained its Grade III status the following year and was elevated to a Grade II in 2008. The Rebel has historically been the prep race leading to the Arkansas Derby, the marquee race during Oaklawn Park’s season. Smarty Jones (2004) and Sunny’s Halo (1983) are the only two colts to win the Rebel and the Kentucky Derby. Rebel winners Temperance Hill (1980) and Victory Gallop (1998) went on to win the Belmont Stakes; Curlin (2007) and Pine Bluff (1992) won the Preakness Stakes. All six of those colts won the Arkansas Derby.

This year’s edition of the Rebel Stakes will draw special attention because 2-year-old champion Lookin at Lucky will be making his 3-year-old debut. Lookin at Lucky has won five of six starts, including three Grade 1 victories, all on synthetic surfaces. His only defeat, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, might stand as his most impressive race, as he overcame a horrible post position to finish a close second. Trainer Bob Baffert will ship from his home base in California to run Lookin at Lucky on the dirt for the first time.

Another classy entrant is Noble’s Promise, who finished second to Lookin at Lucky in the Cash Call Futurity. Noble’s Promise has three wins from six starts, including a win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last October. He finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He is also trying dirt for the first time for trainer Kenny McPeek.

Others in to challenge Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise include Dublin, who made an impressive move around the turn in last month’s Southwest at Oaklawn to finish second. The consistently game Cardiff Giant, who finished third in the Southwest, is in to try and add to his graded stakes earnings. Cardiff Giant has finished in the top three in ten of his eleven starts. Uh Oh Bango has two graded stakes placings at two and will be making his first start of 2010. Rounding out the seven horse field is the speedy Royal Express and Pleasant Storm.

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Further Reading:

  Rebel Stakes – Wikipedia

San Felipe Stakes, Santa Anita
March 13, Race 9, Post Time 7:38 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Synthetic

Inaugurated in 1935, the San Felipe has produced its fair share of Derby starters, including the 11th Triple Crown winner, Affirmed (1978). Kentucky Derby winners include Point Given (2001), Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), Sunday Silence (1989) and Determine (1954). Point Given and Sunday Silence also won the Preakness but could not give the San Felipe another Triple Crown notch in its belt. Pioneerof the Nile (2009) and Desert Wine (1983) finished second in the Derby while Free House (1997) came in third and super-sire Medaglia d’Oro (2002) finished fourth.

Robert B. Lewis starters American Lion, Caracortado and Dave in Dixie meet again, this time with new challenges from the highly regarded San Vincente winner Sidney’s Candy, Pletcher turf talent Interactif, recent maiden winner Erbeia and maiden Stephen’s Got Hope. While it’s the undefeated Caracortado’s race to lose, there certainly are plenty of plausible outcomes.

The most mysterious and intriguing possibility is Richard Mandella’s Erbeia. Bred and owned by Wertheimer & Ferere, an operation known for first class runners, he recently broke his maiden after four unsuccessful tries as a 2-year-old. Perhaps this colt just needed some extra time to come into his own. Hall of Famer Mandella saddled Wertheimer & Ferere’s Setsuko in the Sham last week and walked away with second place; this one could make some noise as well.

Did former Derby hype horse American Lion need a race? Will blinkers help him focus the way they helped Santa Anita Oaks winner Crisp? He’s training well and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him turn in a better effort than last out when he came in a lackluster third. Sidney’s Candy could prove that he’s no sugar buzz after his romp in the seven furlong San Vincente. His trainer, John Sadler, has a notable success rate of 24% with the sprint to route angle.

Dave in Dixie should not be overlooked, either, as he was closing like a freight train in the Robert B. Lewis and has put in two fantastic works. Interactif is the wild card in the bunch (not counting the maiden!); he’s won at three different tracks and ran well last out. Will he like the Pro-Ride surface? He’s already won on turf and dirt, so he’s shown that he’s incredibly versatile.

Caracortado is working well and has won from the outside post before, and the pace scenario looks to set up perfectly for him. Can he stay undefeated? We’ll know soon enough!

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:

  San Felipe Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Affirmed – Wikipedia Entry

Recaps – March 6
Gotham Stakes, Aqueduct
March 6, Race 10, Post Time 5:12 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Awesome Act   |   Place: Ywanna Twist   |   Show: Nacho Friend

Jeremy Noseda’s Awesome Act brought many questions to Ozone Park when he arrived here from England last week: Could he win a stakes race in his first race since last November? Could he win in his first try on dirt? Could he win just days after a transatlantic journey?

His length and a quarter victory in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes answered all of those questions with a resounding “yes” and brought a new contender to the Derby trail.

Awesome Act raced towards the back of the pack around the clubhouse turn, moving as the field turned into the backstretch. D. Wayne Lukas’s Wow Wow Wow set testing fractions of 22.85 and 46.60, and as the field came around the final turn, jockey Julien Leparoux, racing four wide, looked over his shoulder and said “Go!” to Awesome Act, who responded willingly, spurting off at the quarter pole. Previously undefeated New York-bred Yawanna Twist closed willingly to be second, and Nacho Friend, coming in off an eight-month layoff, ran well to be third. Awesome Act hadn’t raced since the Breeders’ Cup, when he was beaten half a length to be fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Juvenile.

Coming into the race off only a maiden win, Awesome Act was made the 5/2 favorite, the bettors’ confidence reflecting that of the trainer of the son of Awesome Again. Noseda believed that if his horse handled the journey, he’d run to his dirt pedigree; Awesome Act did just that, and will now stay at Belmont and train up to the Wood Memorial. Both Yawanna Twist and Nacho Friend are also considering the Wood for their next start.

Full Results and Replay

  – Teresa Genaro, Brooklyn Backstretch

Further Reading:

  Gotham Stakes Stakes – NYRA

Sham Stakes, Santa Anita
March 6, Race 7, Post Time 6:07 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/8 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Synthetic
Win: Alphie’s Bet   |   Place: Setsuko   |   Show: The Program

El Mirage King was the fastest out the gate and kicked off the race with a respectable pace, but Nextdoorneighbor took over the lead going into the backstretch. The Program, Setsuko and Alphie’s Bet all sat in the middle of the tightly bunched field of 10 while Outlaw Man and Kettle River sat further back.

By the end of the backstretch, The Program and Alphie’s Bet were on the move and poised to challenge Nextdoorneighbor. The Program got the lead on the turn, but Alphie’s Bet had angled out for running room and overtook the pack to win by two and quarter lengths.

Setsuko closed nicely for second with The Program hanging on for third and Outlaw Man getting up for fourth. Kettle River started to rally going into the stretch but never fired; his jockey Brice Blanc noted that “he never got into the race at all” and cited his missed training as possibly taking his edge off.

No word from any of the connections on their next steps. The next logical local prep is the Grade 1 $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 3.

Full Results and Replay

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:

  Sham Stakes – Wikipedia Entry

Santa Anita Oaks, Santa Anita
March 6, Race 8, Post Time 6:38 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 1   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Synthetic
Win: Crisp   |   Place: All Due Respect   |   Show: Blind Luck

As anticipated, All Due Respect bounded out of the gate to take the lead early. She set a very slow place in hopes of taking them wire to wire, and she almost succeeded. Crisp and Cozi Rosie sat about a length behind early, with Blind Luck occupying her usual spot at the back of the pack about six lengths behind the leaders. As they came into the stretch, Crisp, who had been inching closer to All Due Respect throughout the race, came up to take on the leader and a stretch duel ensued.

Meanwhile, Blind Luck had gotten her run underway on the far turn and was closing quickly. According to jockey Raphael Bejarano, Blind Luck “was in a good position, but when we came into the stretch, those two fillies in front of me [Crisp and All Due Respect] tightened up and my hole closed. We just ran out of time—she was really running.”

Unlike last time in the Las Virgenes, when Blind Luck was able to make it up in the final strides, she ran out of luck and room. Crisp ended up winning by a head over All Due Respect with an also fast closing Warren’s Jitterbug taking fourth. The added distance and blinkers worked out well for Crisp, as did the private purchase of All Due Respect for her new owners.

Even though the heavily favored Blind Luck didn’t win, don’t count her out yet. She still turned in a game performance, and closers, or horses whose running style is come from behind, run more of a risk of having traffic trouble. As of yet there is no word on any of the fillies’ next move.

According to the Daily Racing Form, all three fillies are heading east with Crisp either going to the Ashland Stakes on April 3 Keeneland or directly to the Oaks on April 30. All Due Repsect and Blind Luck may to the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn on April 3.

Full Results and Replay

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:

  Santa Anita Oaks – Wikipedia Entry
  All Due Repsect – Horse Racing Nation
  Blind Luck – Horse Racing Nation
  Crisp – Horse Racing Nation



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