February 27, 2010 Derby Prep Alert Charts and PPs provided by Brisnet

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Hello Race Fans!

Compared to last weekend’s whirlwind of Kentucky Derby preps, this weekend is relatively quiet with two minor Derby preps and one very exciting Oaks prep. What did we learn last weekend? That there’s so much more to learn! Can the impressive Fountain of Youth winner Eskendereya withstand a duel if challenged? Can Risen Star winner Discreetly Mine still win if he doesn’t control the pace? Can the speedy Southwest winner Conveyance go the distance or could Dublin catch him with more distance? Only time will tell!

Speaking of time, if you didn’t already sign up for our Road to the Roses league you still can: just use League Identifier: 2284973203 and Activation Code: 2579942896 to get in on the fun! The current top three spots are tight with Shaena Kershner’s Space Gal Stables on top with 68 points, followed by Teresa Genaro’s Brooklyn Backstretch with 65 and Eugene Kershner’s EquiSpace with 63. Can you knock the Space family out of contention with your stable? Then sign up now! We’ll announce prizes before it’s all said and done and you’re free to add all of your stables, but only one can be a prize winner.

It was announced this week that the well regarded Dryfly, who finished ninth in the Southwest Stakes, is out with an injury until the fall. His connections are hopeful that he can make a return in September. In other bad news, Maximus Ruler, who missed the Risen Star with a sore foot, has been taken off the trail too as further tests have revealed some bruising. Since he’ll only miss about a month of training, his connections are hoping to run him in some of the major stakes races in the summer.

Upcoming Races – Feb 27
Davona Dale, Gulfstream Park
Feb 27, Race 8, Post Time 4:43 PM ET
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Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Dirt

First run in 1988 and named after the superstar filly of the late 1970s, Gulfstream’s Davona Dale Stakes has seen some impressive filly performers, although not all of them won the race. In fact, the lone filly to come out of this contest to win the Kentucky Oaks, Secret Status, could only manage a third-place finish in 2000 behind the reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies champion Cash Run, but would turn the tables on her rival in the Oaks. Another Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies champion, My Flag, was upset by former claimer Plum Country in the 1996 edition; My Flag subsequently won the Bonnie Miss and Ashland, but failed to fire in the Kentucky Oaks behind California Derby victress Pike Place Dancer. That was quite a year for fillies running against males, as My Flag finished third in the Belmont Stakes. Other good performers to come out of the Davona Dale: winners Yell (2003) and Wait a While (2006) both went on to third-place finishes in the Oaks, while 2005 runner-up In the Gold repeated that placing in the Oaks. Interestingly, last year’s winner, Justwhistledixie, returns to Gulfstream one race before this year’s edition, in the Grade 3 Sabin Stakes.

Now this is a race to get excited about, with both graded stakes winners and Extremely promising up-and-comers! Bickersons returns off her devastating seven-length win in the Forward Gal, and her trainer Kelly Breen has said in interviews that he believes a one-turn mile event like this is her optimal distance. Forward Gal runner-up Joanie’s Catch is back and, though she has only won twice in 15 starts, she’s also finished out of the money only twice. A gutsy performer, she can’t be discounted, especially if the track is wet. Grade 2 winner Sassy Image is on a three-race win streak that began last November with the Grade 3 Pocahontas and then Grade 2 Golden Rod (both over recent Martha Washington winner Decelerator); she began this year winning the off-turf Sweetest Chant over a sloppy Gulfstream track.

Multiple Grade 1-placed Amen Hallelujah ships in from the West Coast, where she won the Grade 2 Santa Ynez last out; she’s put in five workouts at Gulfstream since late January, including an impressive bullet six furlong workout, indicating that this filly’s first race on real dirt may be a good one. Grade 3 Tempted Stakes runner-up Mambo Fever beat recent Silverbulletday runner-up Quiet Temper last September at Saratoga, and looks tough returning second off a break.

Of those without stakes experience that have impressed nevertheless is recent maiden winner Christine Daae who romped by nearly nine lengths in a seven furlong race against nine others last out. While her breeding–by Giant’s Causeway out of a Dehere mare–screams turf, this filly apparently love the dirt, as demonstrated by her two recent bullet works. Interestingly, though, her jockey in that maiden win, Joe Bravo, chooses to remain on Bickersons, as Corey Nakatani gets the ride. Undefeated Comic Marvel also has tremendous turf breeding, as her Grade 3-winning dam Media Nox has produced French multiple Grade 1 victress Nebraska Tornado, as well as graded turf winners Mirabilis and Burning Sun. However, trainer Bobby Frankel won with her first out over a sloppy Belmont track; after his death, Juddmonte passed her over to Bill Mott, who sent her out to an allowance win going one mile over this track one month ago. Mott’s usually pretty conservative, so her presence here is a great indicator of her potential.

Only Female Drama looks overmatched based on her last race, but both of her efforts at Belmont last fall were impressive, with her early speed. By Indian Charlie out of a Dixieland Band mare, Female Drama has some remarkable family connections, as through her dam she is related to 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, 1978 Wood Memorial runner-up Darby Creek Road and top sire Dynaformer. She runs for Anthony Sciametta in name only while trainer Todd Pletcher serves a medication suspension, so don’t read the past performances thinking she’s changed trainers (not always a positive handicapping angle).

If they all break cleanly, look for Bickersons and Christine Daae, as well as Female Drama and Amen Hallelujah, to go to the lead early, with Sassy Image and Mambo Fever sitting right behind them, and followed by Joanie’s Catch and Comic Marvel. Who gets up for the win? Ah, that’s the challenge to figure out! Good luck.

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Futher Reading:

  Davona Dale Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Davona Dale – Wikipedia Entry
  Amen Hallelujah – Horse Racing Nation
  Bickersons – Horse Racing Nation
  Christine Daae – Horse Racing Nation
  Sassy Image – Horse Racing Nation

Borderland Derby, Sunland Park
Feb 27, Race 10, Post Time 6:41 PM ET
Website
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Stakes   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $100,000   |   Surface: Dirt

As Kentucky Derby prep races go, Sunland Park’s Borderland Derby is admittedly on the periphery of relativity. In fact, we wouldn’t be talking about this race at all if not for the fact that last year’s runner-up, Mine That Bird, pulled a huge upset on the First Saturday in May. Before that, the most accomplished horse to emerge from this race was 2005 runner-up Thor’s Echo, whose subsequent 4-year-old Eclipse-winning campaign culminated in a Breeders’ Cup Sprint victory. Its ungraded status doesn’t entice serious Churchill Downs-bound horses, but as a distance and surface test, it proves useful as a prep race for the more alluring March 28 Grade 3 Sunland Derby with its massive $800,000 purse.

Looking over the nine entrants, it’s hard to get excited about any of them as six are either maiden winners or maidens still. New Mexico-bred Chuchuluco is the most accomplished horse in the field, with two state-bred sprint stakes wins to his credit, but the route distance could prove a challenge. California-based trainer Jerry Hollendorfer ships in Tango Tango, who recently finished last of five in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis against promising Derby contender Caracortado, but he’s never run on dirt. Off a 13-length maiden victory at Zia Park, Storming Saint finished a respectable third to multiple-stakes winner Grand Slam Andre in December’s Riley Allison Futurity at Sunland, and his breeding suggests he’ll relish this distance; his dam Tomisue’s Storm is a half-sister to 1994 Wood Memorial winner Irgun.

McKenna’s Justice makes his 3-year-old debut for new trainer Chris Hartman after running mostly on turf last year. By last year’s hot sire Medaglia D’Oro, he is a half-brother to 2004 Canadian champion 2-year-old colt Wholelottabourbon. The sentimental favorite may very well be the Birdstone colt Guiltbyassociation, who comes back only 10 days after narrowly breaking his maiden at Sunland. The second-place finisher in that race, Raise The Bridle, has the benefit of being the sole early speed, and breaking from the far outside post won’t be an obstacle. He’s from the same family as Grade 1 United Nations runner-up Strike a Deal.

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Futher Reading:

  Borderland Derby – Wikipedia Entry
  Mine That Bird – Wikipedia Entry
  Thor’s Echo – Wikipedia Entry

Sham Stakes, Fair Grounds
Feb 27, Race 8, Post Time 7:07 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/8 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Synthetic

Started only in 2001, the Sham Stakes has yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner. Named after the winner of the 1973 Santa Anita Derby who’s best known for his second place efforts in the Derby and Preakness to the 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat, the race is contested at a 1 1/8 miles. The most notable winner, Colonel John (2008), went into the Kentucky Derby as the second choice to Big Brown and finished sixth but won the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, also known as the “Midsummer Derby,” later in the year.

The 10 horse field for this year’s rendition of the Sham are all maiden and first level allowance winners with the exception of Wolf Tail, whose only win was in the $100,000 Graduation Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs over the summer at Del Mar. While it doesn’t seem like there are any Derby starters in the group, a few entrants are intriguing, most notably Darley Stables’ Kettle River, who comes in for trainer Eoin Harty off a two-race win streak. He missed a week of training earlier in the month but has been working well and looks to be the one to beat.

Outlaw Man also seems very plausible, having won his last race at the distance on the turf. This is his first attempt at synthetics after three in the money starts on turf and one fifth place finish on dirt at Saratoga. Trainer Ken McPeek has a notable 25% success rate with a turf to synthetic move. Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella has an even more notable 32% success rate with this move, which augurs well for his entry of Setsuko, who comes in off a second place finish by a half a length on the turf at the distance. Also bolstering Setsuko’s chances is the series of endurance works after his near miss at the distance last out.

Bob Baffert’s The Program comes in off a first level allowance win earlier in the month and boasts a solid work tab. Maiden winner Alphie’s Bet ran a respectable second to Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado in the California Breeders’ Championship and has posted some nice endurance works since his last win at a mile. Nextdoorneighbor, stable mate to Caracortado, also comes in off a maiden win and posted a shocking six furlong work on Feb 15 of 1:10 3/5.

With no clear speed in the field, a horse like Straighttomidnight could potentially use the same technique that worked so well for Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star, by setting a very slow pace and therefore making it harder for the rest of the field to rally. On the other hand, most of this bunch have performed their best under moderate to slow pace scenarios, not to mention that the proven turf runners are already accustomed to this sort of running style.

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Futher Reading:

  Sham Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Sham – Wikipedia Entry

Recaps – Feb 20
Silverbulletday Stakes, Fair Grounds
Feb 20, Race 8, Post Time 4:43 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Jody Slew   |   Place: Quiet Temper   |   Show: Age of Humor

Jody Slew proved she was no one hit wonder as she dug in gamely to beat Quiet Temper on the wire. Quiet Temper broke alertly and immediately went the front with Age of Humor right by her side. Settling into a two length lead, Quiet Temper led the way with Age of Humor, Elusive Jozi and the heavily favored Devil May Care not far behind.

Devil May Care made her move at the 5/16th pole but couldn’t sustain her bid going into the stretch. With a three length lead half way through the stretch, it looked as though Quiet Temper might redeem her lackluster fifth place finish in the Tiffany Lass and go wire to wire but Jody Slew, rallying from 20 lengths back, was not ready to give up. With a bold, determined run, Jody Slew got to the wire right in time and stamped herself a legitimate Oaks contender. Co-owner Dan Morgan was quoted as saying, “We’re not used to winning exciting photos like that. We’re usually second-best. You have to take heart medicine to watch her races.”

Jody Slew will attempt to become the first filly to sweep the Fairgrounds “Road to the Oaks” series in the $400,000 Fairgrounds Oaks on March 26.

Full Results and Replay

  – Dana Byerly,
Green but Game

Futher Reading:

  Silverbulletday Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Jody Slew – Horse Racing Nation
  Quiet Temper – Horse Racing Nation

Hutcheson Stakes, Gulfstream Park
Feb 20, Race 8, Post Time 4:37 PM ET
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Distance: 7 Furlongs   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: D’Funnybone   |   Place: A Little Warm   |   Show: Ibboyee

D’Funnybone, the most accomplished in a field of seven colts in the Hutcheson Stakes, won the seven furlong sprint at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. It was D’Funnybone’s debut as a 3-year-old and his first race since his disappointing performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. The Hutcheson was the third graded stakes victory for D’Funnybone. The winner is trained by Rick Dutrow, and his brother, Tony, trains A Little Warm, who finished a non-threatening second. Ibboyee, the New York shipper trained by Todd Pletcher, rounded out the trifecta.

It is possible that we will see D’Funnybone given another chance at running beyond a sprint distance in his next start. With his substantial earnings in graded stakes races, he has everything he needs to secure a place in the gate for the Kentucky Derby. If he runs well in a race beyond a mile, possibly in the Florida Derby, Rick Dutrow and owner Paul Pompa will no doubt give him a chance to run for the roses in May.

Full Results and Replay

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Futher Reading:

  Hutcheson Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  D’Funnybone – Horse Racing Nation

Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park
Feb 20, Race 10, Post Time 5:40 PM ET
Website | Twitter
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Eskendereya   |   Place: Jackson Bend   |   Show: Aikenite

Of all the runners in Saturday’s big stakes for 3-year-olds, Buddy’s Saint had the most to prove. After two stakes wins as a 2-year-old in New York, he vaulted to the top of many early Derby lists. Unfortunately, he never had a chance in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth as he was bumped hard around the first turn and finished 9th out of 10.

Buddy’s Saint’s flop was Eskendereya’s coming out party. The beautifully bred son of Giant’s Causeway tracked pacesetter Lost Aptitude, took the lead around the turn, and pulled away in the stretch. He finished eight lengths ahead of Jackson Bend, who was followed by third place finisher Aikenite. It was Eskendereya’s third win in three starts on a conventional dirt surface. Trainer Todd Pletcher, who has a barnful of promising Derby colts, will point Eskendereya for the Florida Derby in March.

Full Results and Replay

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Futher Reading:

  Fountain of Youth Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Buddy’s Saint – Horse Racing Nation
  Eskendereya – Horse Racing Nation
  Jackson Bend – Horse Racing Nation

Risen Star Stakes, Fair Grounds
Feb 20, Race 10, Post Time 5:43 PM ET
Website | Twitter
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $300,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Discreetly Mine   |   Place: Tempted to Tapit   |   Show: Northern Giant

With no clear speed horse in the field, Discreetly Mine stepped up to set an unremarkable pace and give himself an advantage over several well regarded closers in the field. Tempted to Tapit and Northern Giant sat within a length of the leader with Random Move and Drosselmeyer next. The first three finishers ran in their final order for the majority of the race.

After sitting chilly right off the flank of Discreetly Mine, Tempted to Tapit attempted to overtake him in the stretch, but Discreetly Mine repelled his bid and pulled away. Meanwhile, Drosselmeyer and Stay Put rallied but couldn’t get to the leaders, finishing fourth and fifth, while Ron the Greek also rallied from the back of the pack but only managed sixth place.

So far LeComte winner Ron the Greek and Discreetly Mine are pointing towards the $750,000 Louisiana Derby on March 27. Second place finisher Tempted to Tapit will target either the Louisiana Derby or Sunland Derby on March 28.

Full Results and Replay

  – Dana Byerly,
Green but Game

Futher Reading:

  Risen Star Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Drosselmeyer – Horse Racing Nation
  Discreetly Mine – Horse Racing Nation
  Ron the Greek – Horse Racing Nation
  Tempted to Tapit – Horse Racing Nation

Southwest Stakes, Oaklawn Park
Feb 20, Race 10, Post Time 5:29 PM ET
Website | Twitter
Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Conveyance   |   Place: Dublin   |   Show: Cardiff Giant
Conveyance, the undefeated colt from California, started on the lead in Saturday’s Southwest at Oaklawn Park and ended there — taking the field of 10 wire-to-wire. The Bob Baffert-trained colt, who won his
last start in the Grade 3 San Rafael, was racing over a conventional dirt surface for the first time.

While Conveyance won the race, equally as impressive was the second place finisher Dublin. Dublin was far off the pace coming out of the first turn but made gradual progress on the leading group along the backstretch. He passed the bulk of the field around the turn and slowly made up ground on the leader, but could not get by before the finish line. Dublin was sired by Afleet Alex, who won the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in 2005. Cardiff Giant, the former claiming horse, finished a close third.

Like Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert has a number of Derby contenders, so it will be interesting to see where he points Conveyance next. Conveyance was sired by Indian Charlie, who won the 1998 Santa Anita Derby but ran third as the favorite in that year’s Kentucky Derby to near-Triple Crown winner Real Quiet. Dublin will likely remain at Oaklawn and race next in the Arkansas Derby. Dublin is trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas who has won the Kentucky Derby four times. Lukas last won a Triple Crown race in 2000.

Full Results and Replay

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Futher Reading:

  Southwest Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Cardiff Giant – Horse Racing Nation
  Conveyance – Horse Racing Nation
  Dublin – Horse Racing Nation

Also last weekend:
Feb 20: $150,000 Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields: Connemara



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