February 20, 2010 Derby Prep Alert Charts and PPs provided by Brisnet

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Hello Race Fans!

The Derby trail really heats up this week with several key preps and yet another weather related reschedule. Last week’s Southwest Stakes now joins the Hucheson, Fountain of Youth and Risen Star in what promises to be a defining weekend. While there’s only one Oaks prep, it also should also shed some light on the Oaks trail.

Did you do some bargain hunting in the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers? We hope so as there were plenty of bargains to be had! As expected, the choice of “the field” closed the overwhelming favorite at 3/2, but even horses such as Rule, who put in an impressive performance over the weekend, managed to retain some value at 24-1. You can see the full list of final odds and projected payouts here. If you missed this pool, the next one is set for the March 5-7 and will include a pool for the Kentucky Oaks as well!

Get in on the action with our Road to the Roses Fantasy League!

As the official fantasy game of the Kentucky Derby, Road to the Roses offers you a chance to select a stable of your favorite 3-year-olds, two jockeys and two trainers to score points and potentially win prizes. Our Hello Race Fans League will offer prizes as well to the top three finishers (who aren’t Hello Race Fans contributors… although any HRF contributors who win, place or show will certainly get bragging rights!).

Once you’ve signed up and created your stable, use League Identifier: 2284973203 and Activation Code: 2579942896 to join. You can join our league whenever you like, but you should create your stable if you haven’t already as the first scoring races are this weekend!

Upcoming Races – Feb 20
Silverbulletday Stakes, Fair Grounds
Feb 20, Race 8, Post Time 4:43 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Dirt

Originally named for 1979 Oaks winner Davona Dale, the race was renamed after the 1999 Oaks winner and champion filly Silverbulletday. Others to win the Oaks include Blushing KD (1997) and Tiffany Lass (1986). The 2008 winner, Indian Blessing, did not run in the Oaks but went on to become the Champion Female Sprinter of 2008 by winning the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap and Grade 1 La Brea Stakes, Test Stakes and Prioress Stakes.

Four Tiffany Lass entrants, including the first and second place finishers and the well beaten favorite, meet again this Saturday. Add to the mix one Grade 1 winner and two wild cards and you have what looks to be a intriguing race. Can Tiffany Lass surprise winner Jody Slew prove she wasn’t a fluke? With Elusive Jozi back in the field and the addition of front running Age of Humor, the pace scenario looks favorable for the defender. Grade 1 Frizette winner Devil May Care should benefit from the likely pace scenario as well. She’s coming off a break from her unsuccessful Breeders’ Cup attempt in the fall and working incredibly well.

Second place finisher Bella Medaglia could prove she’s not a perpetual also-ran here as the albeit slight additional distance could help her get there in time. Fifth place finisher Quiet Temper, who went off as the favorite, could also be in the mix if her last lackluster effort was a fluke. Age of Humor comes in from Aqueduct and makes her first start for Michael Maker, who has a notable 26% win rate with new runners. She’s been working impressively since her last effort winning the Busanda Stakes and at 15-1 offers some value. The Rumor’s True, who’s one for one both at the track and distance, rounds out the field.

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
  Silverbulletday Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Silverbulletday – Wikipedia Entry
  Indian Blessing – Wikipedia Entry
  Devil May Care – Wikipedia Entry
  Jody Slew – Wikipedia Entry

Hutcheson Stakes, Gulfstream Park
Feb 20, Race 8, Post Time 4:37 PM ET
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Distance: 7 Furlongs   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Dirt

The Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park was run for the first time in 1954. The distance of the race has been set at seven furlongs since 1961 (with the exception of 2005-2007 when it was changed to seven and half furlongs). Over the years the timing of the race has changed: it has been run as early as January and as late as March. The distance of the race makes it less significant as a prep for the Kentucky Derby than some of the other races but some colts of significance have won the Hutcheson, including Spectacular Bid (1979), Swale (1984), and Holy Bull (1994). The great Forego — Horse of the Year in 1974, 1975, and 1976 — finished second in the 1973 renewal of the race. The 1966 Kentucky Derby winner, Kauai King, ran second in the race that year.

Those entered in this year’s Hutcheson do not appear to be on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail. All runners have shown a predilection for sprint distances in their past performances and would have been entered in the Fountain of Youth if their connections had sights set on stretching out to the Derby distance in May. Having said that, the race has drawn an interesting group of runners who could make waves in the sprint division moving forward.

Radiohead, a Group 1 winner in Europe at six furlongs, was purchased in October by IEAH, owners of 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown, and brought to the United States to race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished a disappointing seventh. He will get his first try on a dirt surface in the Hutcheson and his first start with trainer Rick Dutrow. It will be interesting to see how he is handled by those gambling on the race — he is listed as 5/1 on the morning line.

D’Funnybone, the morning line favorite at 2/1, is a two-time graded stakes winner at sprint distances as a 2-year-old. In his last start, he finished last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. While it is hard to say if that performance was the result of the synthetic surface at Santa Anita or the 1 1/16 mile distance of the race, his placement in the Hutcheson says a great deal about the Owners’ intentions moving forward. The New York-bred Ibboye ships in from his home state where he posted a record of four wins from six starts. All four of those wins came in races restricted to New York-breds. He finished fourth in his first try in open company in the Count Fleet in January.

Trainer Anthony Dutrow saddles A Little Warm off a stakes win at Gulfstream in the Spectacular Bid Stakes last month. The colt he beat in that race, Wildcat Frankie, enters off a first level allowance win two weeks ago at one mile. The cut back in distance for Wildcat Frankie and his ability to carry a lead deep into the stretch over a tiring, sloppy track in the Spectacular Bid make him an interesting player.

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Further Reading:
  Hutcheson Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  D’Funnybone – Horse Racing Nation
  Radiohead – Horse Racing Nation

Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park
Feb 20, Race 10, Post Time 5:40 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/8 Miles   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Dirt

The Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park was run for the first time in 1945. After a few distance changes, it settled in at 1 1/16 miles in 1953 and stayed that way until 2005, when it was stretched to 1 1/8 miles (last year the race was run at a mile but it’s back to 1 1/8 this year).

For nearly fifty years, the race has served as a prep for the Florida Derby, the centerpiece on Gulfstream Park’s racing calendar. In 1957, Iron Liege, that year’s Kentucky Derby winner, finished second to Gen. Duke. The following year Tim Tam won the Fountain of Youth on his way to win the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness. Kauai King (1966), Spectacular Bid (1979), and Thunder Gulch (1995) also won the FOY and two legs of the Triple Crown. Other horses of note who ran in the race en route to winning the roses in Kentucky include Carry Back (1961), Pleasant Colony (1981), Swale (1984), Unbridled (1990), Go for Gin (1994), and Thunder Gulch (1995). Unbridled along with Proud Truth (1985) also won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the same year they ran in the Fountain of Youth. In 1969, Arts and Letters finished second in the FOY during one of the most remarkable 3-year-old campaigns of the twentieth century.

A field of 10 colts is set to go in this year’s Fountain of Youth, but all eyes will be on Buddy’s Saint. Buddy’s Saint only has three career races, but it was his dominating wins in the Nashua and Remsen at Aqueduct last November that have put him on the top of many Derby lists. Some have questioned his competition in those two races. On Saturday we will get an indication if he is worthy of the hype. Jackson Bend, who had his five race win streak broken in the Holy Bull last month, and the regally bred Eskendereya, who comes off a wire-to-wire win at Gulfstream Park in an allowance, will be among the contenders trying to beat Buddy’s Saint. Nick Zito, who trains Jackson Bend, will also send out Ice Box who won an allowance race at a 1 1/8 in his first race as a 3-year-old at Gulftstream on Jan 18th.

Prince Will I Am appears to have woken up in his last race when he finished second to Drosselmeyer – one of the favorites in a stakes race in New Orleans also scheduled for Saturday. An interesting unknown is Lost Aptitude who has run well in six lifetime races all over the turf. He is graded stakes placed with a second in the Tropical Park Derby at Calder Race Course. If he can transfer that form to dirt and overcome his outside post position, he could be a player at a square price for trainer Dale Romans, who has a 25% winning percentage at Gulfstream Park this year. The Todd Pletcher trained Aikenite will try to rebound from a dull effort in the Holy Bull Stakes.

The winner of this year’s Fountain of Youth will emerge as one of the favorites for the Florida Derby to be run March 27 at Gulfstream Park.

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Further Reading:
  Fountain of Youth Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Buddy’s Saint – Horse Racing Nation
  Eskendereya – Horse Racing Nation
  Jackson Bend – Horse Racing Nation

Risen Star Stakes, Fair Grounds
Feb 20, Race 10, Post Time 5:43 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $300,000   |   Surface: Dirt

The Risen Star was inaugurated in 1973 as the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes and renamed in 1989 in honor of the 1988 winner, who went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Risen Star was the third choice in the 1988 Kentucky Derby and came in a respectable third to front running filly Winning Colors. Not only did he turn the tables on her in Preakness, but he won the Belmont Stakes by an astonishing 15+ lengths.

Recent winners such as Friesan Fire (2009) and Pyro (2008) made it to the Derby and were highly regarded, yet both turned in underwhelming performances. Friesan Fire was favored at odds of 4/5 and finished 19th while Pyro was the third choice at 9/5 and finished 8th. Curiously, these two and 2006 winner Lawyer Ron all returned as 4-year-olds and validated their earlier promise by performing well.

LeComte winner Ron the Greek will not get a rematch with Maximus Ruler, who’s skipping due to a bruised foot, but instead will face several well regarded new challengers in addition to a few familiar faces. The fast closing Letsgetitonmon returns in addition to Worldly, who ran flat last out. Drosselmeyer is the most highly regarded of the new faces but seems to need a fast pace to do his best. While it’s plausible that Tempted to Tapit and Discreetly Mine could provide a lively pace scenario, it’s also plausible that they won’t. A moderate pace will also play against Ron the Greek.

Stay Put, from the red hot Steve Margolis barn, could benefit from a moderate pace given the fractions in his last two wins. Hotep and Northern Giant have also won under moderate pace scenarios. However the race unfolds, with 12 entrants and only a lukewarm favorite in the Ron the Greek at 3-1, the Risen Star should prove interesting and potentially profitable.

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
  Risen Star Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Risen Star – Wikipedia Entry
  Drosselmeyer – Wikipedia Entry
  Ron the Greek – Wikipedia Entry
  Stay Put – Wikipedia Entry

Rescheduled from Feb 15
Southwest Stakes, Oaklawn Park
Feb 20, Race 10, Post Time 5:29 PM ET
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Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Dirt

The Southwest is the second in a series of four stakes races for 3-years-old colts during Oaklawn’s annual meet. It was run for the first time in 1968 as the Southwest Handicap at six furlongs. In 1983, the race was stretched out to its current distance of one mile. Since its founding in 1968, it has served as a launching point for colts pointing to Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes and the track’s marquee event, the Arkansas Derby, which is run in April. In 2007, the race was upgraded to a Grade 3, making it eligible for graded stakes earnings. Entry to the Kentucky Derby is based on graded earnings, giving the Southwest added significance.

Smarty Jones swept the Southwest, Rebel, and Arkansas Derby prior to winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. He is the only colt to ever win both the Southwest and the Kentucky Derby. In 2006, Lawyer Ron won the Southwest on his way to sweeping the 3-year-old series at Oaklawn. Lawyer Ron finished a disappointing 12th in the Kentucky Derby.

The field for this year’s Southwest includes three shippers from California who will be competing on dirt for the first time: Conveyance, Cardiff Giant, and Domonation. Conveyance has three wins from three starts in his brief career and recently won the one mile Grade 3 San Rafael at Santa Anita. Cardiff Giant has ten career starts and has been out of the money only once. He is a former claiming horse and would be a big surprise if he makes it to the gate for the Kentucky Derby. He finished second to Conveyance in the San Rafael. Locally based Dryfly enters off a win in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn back in January. Dryfly is trained by Lynn Whiting, who won the 1992 Kentucky Derby with long shot Lil E Tee. He is owned by the president and owner of Oaklawn Park, Charles Cella. Grade 1 winner Dublin is entered for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Dublin was sired by 2005 Arkansas Derby winner Afleet Alex.

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Further Reading:
  Southwest Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Smarty Jones – Wikipedia Entry
  Cardiff Giant – Horse Racing Nation
  Conveyance – Horse Racing Nation
  Domonation – Horse Racing Nation

Recaps – Feb 13
Martha Washington Stakes, Oaklawn Park
Feb 13, Race 9, Post Time 6:02 PM ET
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Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Stakes   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $75,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Decelerator   |   Place: Eve Giselle   |   Show: Bell’s Shoes

As is so often true, class (quality of prior experience) and form (excellent recent performance) won out, with the most experienced filly in the field, Decelerator, emerging victorious over her 10 rivals. Cosmo Girl, who lost to Decelerator by a half length last time out in the Dixie Belle, rocketed to the early lead along with previously-undefeated Eve Giselle under her new jockey Corey Nakatani, while Decelerator saved ground racing on pace but just back of the leaders. Entering the final turn, Cosmo Girl dropped back while Eve Giselle hung on, only to be passed on the rail by Decelerator who maintained her lead through the stretch and won by one length over Eve Giselle. Grade 3 runner-up Tiz Miss Sue finished fourth. Dixie Belle winner Shotgun Gulch was a never a factor in the race, ending up sixth; it was revealed after the race that she had an entrapped epiglottis and will require throat surgery.

Well-bred Funny Feeling was stifled by having run four-wide nearly the entire race, finishing eighth ahead of Vertical Vision, Cosmo Girl and Wild Oration. The biggest surprise of the race was Bell’s Shoes, who went off at 31-1 and closed best off all to get up for third. Unfortunately, she wasn’t able to continue her family’s winning streak in this race (you’ll remember that her dam Isabell’s Shoes won it in 2005, her second dam Pink Shoes in 1995, and her third dam Fun Flight in 1988), but she should relish more distance.

Did we see a Kentucky Oaks winner in this race? While the final time (1:38.69) may not indicate it, this edition was actually the second fastest Martha Washington run, behind Rachel Alexandra’s (1:36.40), but ahead of Eight Belles’ (1:39), who won her race by 13-1/2 lengths. Next up for many of the best performers here is the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes, going 1-1/16 miles on March 16.

Full Results and Replay

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:
  Martha Washington Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Bell’s Shoes – Horse Racing Nation
  Cosmo Girl – Horse Racing Nation
  Decelerator – Horse Racing Nation
  Funny Feeling – Horse Racing Nation
  More about entrapped epiglottis

Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Downs
Feb 13, Race 10, Post Time 4:52 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $225,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Rule   |   Place: Schoolyard Dreams   |   Show: Uptowncharlybrown

In winning his fourth straight race, Rule has clearly established a pattern: know him early. He has not been headed in his current streak and this held true once again in the Sam F. Davis. Breaking from the rail, Rule first shook off Middle of the Nite, then, when challenged by Schoolyard Dreams at the top of the stretch, pulled away from that one to win by three lengths. Uptowncharlybrown came closing for a useful third but was never really involved after breaking last in his first trip around two turns.

Rule’s connections, owners Winstar Farm and trainer Todd Pletcher, have used the Sam F. Davis as a starting point for their best 3-year-olds in the past with Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday. This year they appear to be changing the plan a little bit by bypassing the upcoming Tampa Bay Derby, which both Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday ran in, to point Rule toward the larger goal of a Grade 1, probably the Florida Derby in mid-March, where he is expected to be one of the favorites.

Hard to know what to make of the two Tampa Bay locals who finished behind Rule in the Sam F. Davis. Schoolyard Dreams moved forward adding blinkers for the first time. Improvement could be expected should he move toward the Tampa Bay Derby, which would be his third start of the year. Uptowncharlybrown is slated to stay in Tampa and also point toward the Tampa Bay Derby. There has been chatter about getting the addition of blinkers to put a little speed and focus in him early after his lackadaisical start in this race.

Full Results and Replay

  – Chris Rossi, @o_crunk

Further Reading:
  Sam F. Davis Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Rule – Horse Racing Nation
  Uptowncharlybrown – Horse Racing Nation
  Uptowncharlybrown Blog

Las Virgenes, Santa Anita Park
Feb 13, Race 4, Post Time 5:03 PM ET
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Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Grade 1   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Synthetic
Win: Blind Luck   |   Place: Evening Jewel   |   Show: Switch

The highly anticipated return of impressive 2-year-old Blind Luck was not without drama when an overconfident ride by jockey Rafael Bejarano almost cost her the win. Pacesetter Switch set slower than expected fractions as her jock, Tyler Baze, had a firm hold early. Summer Games, the longest shot on the board, stalked not far behind. Evening Jewel sat about four lengths off the leaders waiting to make her move while Blind Luck ran at the back of the pack about nine lengths behind Switch.

Evening Jewel made her move early, coming on take on Switch going into the stretch. As those two gamely battled, Blind Luck started to get underway but had to come three or four wide around the corner to get into position. As a stretch duel unfolded ahead of her, Blind Luck closed like a freight train in the middle of the track to get a nose in front of Evening Jewel without a moment to spare.

All three fillies turned in solid performances, especially considering that Evening Jewel finished second by a length and half to Caracortado, the impressive Robert B. Lewis winner who easily put away Tiz Chrome and American Lion.

Blind Luck is nominated for both the Santa Anita Oaks on March 6 and the Santa Anita Derby on April 3. No word yet on the next move for Evening Jewel and Switch.

Full Results and Replay

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
  Las Virgenes – Wikipedia Entry
  Blind Luck – Horse Racing Nation
  Evening Jewel – Horse Racing Nation
  Switch – Horse Racing Nation

Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Santa Anita Park
Feb 13, Race 6, Post Time 6:05 PM ET
Website | Twitter
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Synthetic
Win: Caracortado   |   Place: Dave in Dixie   |   Show: American Lion

Undefeated former claimer and California bred Caracortado improved his record to five for five with a convincing win in the Robert B. Lewis. The only entrant to run and win at the distance stepped up in class and stamped himself a legitimate Derby hopeful when he easily put away the highly regarded Winstar Farm runners Tiz Chrome and American Lion.

Tiz Chrome and American Lion broke sharply with Tiz Chrome taking the lead and setting a sensible yet pressured pace with American Lion never far behind. Tiz Chrome was hard held by jockey Garrett Gomez and didn’t have anything left in the stretch while Caracortado’s rider, Paul Atkinson, provided a perfectly patient trip sitting right behind the dueling front runners. Caracortado, or scar face in Spanish, emphatically took the lead at the top of the stretch and clocked an impressive 1:41.75, the fastest time at this distance so far for the Santa Anita meet. Dave in Dixie made an impressive move to closed from last to get second while American Lion held on well for third.

According to trainer Mike Machowsky, Caracortado will target the San Felipe of March 13 and the Santa Anita Derby on April 3. Second place finisher Dave in Dixie is also pointed at the San Felipe.

Full Results and Replay

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
  Robert B. Lewis Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  American Lion – Horse Racing Nation
  Caracortado – Horse Racing Nation
  Dave in Dixie – Horse Racing Nation

San Vicente Stakes, Santa Anita Park
Feb 15, Race 8 , Post Time 7;07 PM ET
Website | Twitter
Distance: 7 Furlongs   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Synthetic
Win: Sidney’s Candy   |   Place: Tiny Woods   |   Show: Classical Slew

After making an uninspiring return from the summer in December, Sidney’s Candy came to life and turned in a front running dominant win in the San Vicente. Breaking well and settling into position early, he set a fast pace and drew away to win easily by four and half lengths. Second and third place finishers Tiny Woods and Classical Slew ran in their respective finishing order throughout the race.

John Sadler, trainer of Sidney’s Candy, has said that he’ll keep his top Derby prospects apart and is looking to find a race outside of California for Sidney’s Candy. His next stop might be the Gotham Stakes in New York on March 6. Given that the son of Candy Ride has stepped up his game and now looks like a legitimate Derby prospect, it will be interesting to see how handles natural dirt, the same surface the Kentucky Derby is run on, earlier rather than later.

Full Results and Replay

  – Dana Byerly,
Green but Game

Further Reading:
  San Vincente Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Sidney’s Candy – Horse Racing Nation



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