February 13, 2010 Derby Prep Alert Charts and PPs provided by Brisnet

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Hello Race Fans!

Last weekend was a wild ride with Santa Anita canceling on Saturday due to torrential rains and Eightyfiveinafifty with either an equipment snafu or just plain bad luck in the Whirlaway. The Las Virgenes and Robert B. Lewis will be run this Saturday and we’ve included the slightly updated previews below. In addition to the rescheduled races, there are several other interesting preps on this long holiday weekend. One entrant, Uptowncharlybrown in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, even has his own blog!

Upcoming Races – Feb 13
Martha Washington Stakes, Oaklawn Park
Feb 13, Race 9, Post Time 6:02 PM ET
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Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Stakes   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $75,000   |   Surface: Dirt

From its inaugural running in 1979 until 2003, the Martha Washington Stakes was run at six furlongs, and its early winners went on to be modestly successful, although Up the Apalachee did win the 1987 Grade 1 Alabama Stakes and, later as a 4-year-old, 1982 winner Ambassador of Luck won the Eclipse Award as champion older female. However, despite being ungraded, this one mile race has become in recent years an unlikely prep race for the very best fillies, as the last two editions were won by 2008 Kentucky Derby runner-up Eight Belles and 2009 Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra. Can the Fates strike thrice?

This year’s edition features a full field of 12, including the top four place-getters from the Jan 15 Dixie Belle Stakes, the top three of whom finished within one-half length of one another. Oklahoma-bred Shotgun Gulch has won four of five lifetime starts (including three stakes races), with her only loss coming over turf. Runner-up Decelerator is by far the most experienced filly in the field, with a win in last year’s Grade 3 Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs and runner-up efforts in the 1 mile Grade 3 Pocahontas and 1 1/16 mile Grade 2 Golden Rod, both to Sassy Image who’s come back this year to win the off-turf Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream.

Third-place finisher Cosmo Girl ran in open company three times last year: losing a maiden effort to a smart stakes winner (Big Texas Daddy), winning next out wire-to-wire vs. a large field, and leading the Clever Trevor Stakes at Remington Park before falling to colts Grand Slam Andre and Uh Oh Bango, recent runner-up in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot. Her dam Ever Imelda is a half-sister to Red Mischief, dam of 2007 Kentucky Oaks runner-up Ermine.

The other Dixie Bell also-ran entered here is Steve Asmussen-trained Vertical Vision, whom Shotgun Gulch previously defeated in the Oklahoma Classic Lassie. Several others come out of a Jan 24 Oaklawn allowance optional claiming race, including undefeated Eve Giselle (who’s untested beyond six furlongs but gets top jockey Corey Nakatani to ride for the first time), third-place finisher Wild Oration and the well-beaten favorite Tiz Miz Sue whose best race, a distant second-place finish behind Eclipse champion 2-year-old filly She Be Wild in the Grade 3 Arlington Washington Lassie, came over Arlington’s Polytrack.

A big one to watch is Funny Feeling, recent third-place finisher in the Ruthless Stakes at Aqueduct. She’s put in three blazing workouts at Gulfstream since moving south from New York in mid-January, and she’s tremendously well-bred, by Distorted Humor out of the Citidancer mare Hookedonthefeelin, a Grade 1 winner (La Brea Stakes) at three whose first foal was multiple-Grade 1 winner Pussycat Doll, thus making Pussycat Doll a half-sister to Funny Feeling.

I should also mention that recent maiden winner Bell’s Shoes may be a hidden gem. You can always forgive a horse’s first effort, and her second race produced the biggest dirt speed figure of any filly in this race. Her connections then switched her to an artificial surface, resulting in two third-place efforts at Arlington last August, including a narrow loss to Amen Hallelujah who went on to two Grade 1 placings and recently won the Grade 2 Santa Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita. After a four-month break, Bell’s Shoes returned with a middling effort at Fair Grounds, but won on Jan 15. The second-place finisher that day won next out, and Bell’s Shoes posted a very sharp five furlong workout recently. Jockey Jon Court is quite familiar with her, and this third-back start since a layoff could be big. Plus, she’s got a lot of history on her side: her dam Isabell’s Shoes won this race in 2005, her second dam Pink Shoes won it in 1995, and her third dam Fun Flight won it in 1988-and all three raced for owner Patricia Blass who sends Bell’s Shoes here. Talk about a family tradition!

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:
  Martha Washington Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Ambassador of Luck – Wikipedia Entry
  Eight Belles – Wikipedia Entry
  Rachel Alexandra – Wikipedia Entry
  Amen Hallelujah – Horse Racing Nation
  Bell’s Shoes – Horse Racing Nation
  Cosmo Girl – Horse Racing Nation
  Decelerator – Horse Racing Nation
  Funny Feeling – Horse Racing Nation
  Grand Slam Andre – Horse Racing Nation
  Shotgun Gulch – Horse Racing Nation
  Uh Oh Bango – Horse Racing Nation

Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Downs
Feb 13, Race 10, Post Time 4:52 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $225,000   |   Surface: Dirt

Once considered well off the beaten path toward the Kentucky Derby, Tampa Bay Downs has recently become a fashionable destination for 3-year-olds in search of graded stakes earnings. First run in 1981, the Sam F. Davis hadn’t produced many notable winners until Andromeda’s Hero put it on the map in 2005. Since then, three of the last four winners have made it into the starting gate on Derby day. This group includes General Quarters (2009), Any Given Saturday (2007) and Bluegrass Cat (2006). Among those who didn’t win the Sam F. Davis but still went on to the Kentucky Derby were Deputy Glitters (2006), Big Truck (2008) and Musket Man (2009). This impressive assortment of past runners led the American Graded Stakes Committee to grant the Sam F. Davis a Grade 3 designation last year.

This year’s renewal features a mixed bag of entries stabled locally at Tampa Bay and a pair shipping in to attempt a shot at the generous purse of $225,000. Morning line favorite Rule, the only runner with previous graded stakes experience, is making his 3-year-old debut after winning the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot in December. John Velazquez is also making the trip from Gulfstream to ride Rule for the high profile connections of Winstar Farm and trainer Todd Pletcher. Among those stabled at Tampa Bay, Uptowncharlybrown has created a bit of a buzz in winning both of his starts with relative ease, but the question here is whether he can duplicate those efforts stretching out to two turns for the first time. Middle Of The Nite is coming in from Gulfstream after finishing third in a first level allowance race to the highly thought of Eskendereya. Edgar Prado is also tagging along to keep the mount on Middle Of The Nite, who appears to be fresh following three consecutive five furlong workouts of improving quality.

Rounding out the field of seven is a quartet of local runners. Of these, two are particularly interesting. Schoolyard Dreams is entered for trainer Derek Ryan and owner Eric Fein. These same connections used Tampa Bay Downs as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby in the past with both Big Truck and Musket Man. Schoolyard Dreams is adding blinkers for his second start of the year after winning a first level allowance, defeating another Sam Davis entry in African Moon by a length. Another entrant worth keeping an eye on is Silver Craft. He lost all chance against Uptowncharlybrown at the start of his last race, stumbling out of the gate. Trainer Anthony Reinstedler has seen fit to bring in his go-to jockey Jesus Castanon to ride Silver Craft.

  – Chris Rossi, @o_crunk

Further Reading:
  Sam F. Davis Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Any Given Saturday – Wikipedia Entry
  Bluegrass Cat – Wikipedia Entry
  General Quarters – Wikipedia Entry
  Rule – Horse Racing Nation
  Uptowncharlybrown – Horse Racing Nation
  Uptowncharlybrown Blog
  General Quarters – Horse Racing Nation

Southwest Stakes, Oaklawn Park
Feb 15, Race TBA, Post Time TBA
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Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Dirt

The Southwest Stakes will be run on Monday at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The Southwest is the second in a series of four stakes races for 3-years-old colts during Oaklawn’s annual meet. It was run for the first time in 1968 as the Southwest Handicap at six furlongs. In 1983, the race was stretched out to its current distance of one mile. Since its founding in 1968, it has served as a launching point for colts pointing to Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes and the track’s marquee event, the Arkansas Derby, which is run in April. In 2007, the race was upgraded to a Grade 3, making it eligible for graded stakes earnings. Entry to the Kentucky Derby is based on graded earnings, giving the Southwest added significance.

Smarty Jones swept the Southwest, Rebel, and Arkansas Derby prior to winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. He is the only colt to ever win both the Southwest and the Kentucky Derby. In 2006, Lawyer Ron won the Southwest on his way to sweeping the 3-year-old series at Oaklawn. Lawyer Ron finished a disappointing 12th in the Kentucky Derby.

The probables in the field for the Southwest this year include three shippers from California who will be competing on dirt for the first time: Conveyance, Cardiff Giant, and Domonation. Conveyance has three wins from three starts in his brief career and recently won the one mile Grade 3 San Rafael at Santa Anita. Cardiff Giant has ten career starts and has been out of the money only once. He is a former claiming horse and would be a big surprise if he makes it to the gate for the Kentucky Derby. He finished second to Conveyance in the San Rafael. Other possible entries include the locally based Dryfly who enters off a win in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn back in January. Dryfly is trained by Lynn Whiting, who won the 1992 Kentucky Derby with longshot Lil E Tee. He is owned by the president and owner of Oaklawn Park, Charles Cella.

The final entries for the Southwest will be available on Friday afternoon.

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Further Reading:
  Southwest Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Smarty Jones – Wikipedia Entry
  Cardiff Giant – Horse Racing Nation
  Conveyance – Horse Racing Nation
  Domonation – Horse Racing Nation

San Vicente Stakes, Santa Anita Park
Feb 15, Race TBA , Post Time TBA
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Distance: 7 Furlongs   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Synthetic

While the San Vincente Stakes is only contested at seven furlongs, it’s produced six Kentucky Derby winners. Gallahadion (1940), Hill Gail (1952), Swaps (1955), Lucky Debonair (1965), Majestic Prince (1969) and Silver Charm (1997) all went on to win the Derby, but more recent winners haven’t managed to make much noise on the Derby trail. No fillies are nominated for this year’s rendition, but they’ve done well in this spot with Horse of the Year Busher (1945), Hubble Bubble (1947) and Evita Argentina (2009) all winning.

The field hasn’t been officially announced, but the nominations for this year’s rendition seemed to be a well matched group ready to take a shot at some much needed graded earnings. Not lacking for 3-year-olds, Bob Baffert has nominated three interesting prospects in Concord Point, Tiny Woods and Quiet Invader. Concord Point has only raced once, winning a maiden special weight at Santa Anita on Dec 26, but he must have impressed someone because he’s included as a wagering interest in the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Futures wagers. He’ll race after the pools have closed, but if he stays at his morning line odds of 30-1 or better, he might be worth a small wager.

Tiny Woods beat second place finisher from the San Rafael, Cardiff Giant, by 3/4 of a length last out in December. Cardiff Giant ran respectably in the San Rafael coming out of his race with Tiny Woods, and if Cardiff Giant improves in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on the same day, it could flatter Tiny Woods who’s been burning up the track with two incredibly fast workouts. Quiet Invader also seems interesting as he cuts back in distance from 1 1/16 miles and has been training well.

Nordic Truce ships in from Florida for trainer Christophe Clemente off of two turf wins at one mile. Turf runners’ form often transfers well to synthetics, so it’s hard to tell if Clemente is testing the waters for more synthetic racing or taking an intermediary step towards dirt. John Sadler nominates Sidney’s Candy and Hurricane Ike, each named for his respective owner. Sidney’s Candy, campaigned by the owners of Chocolate Candy from last year’s Derby trail, comes in off his first effort off a five month break. He’s put in two impressive endurance works and could be ready to fire.

The Doug O’Neill trained Classical Slew would be making his first start since the summer when he tried graded company to no avail. His work tab is full of incredibly fast works, his last an eye popping bullet, or fastest work at the distance, at 1:11.4 for six furlongs. And fans of 70′s sitcoms might be interested in a hunch play of Gilligan, who finally cleared a second level allowance race after missing by less than a length three other times. Other potential entries include East Coast invader City Trooper, Woodbine shipper Dixie Trouper, Lion’s Story, Raging Wit, Runaway Bandido and Timbavati.

Entries will be announced late Friday afternoon.

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
  San Vincente Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Gallahadion – Wikipedia Entry
  Hill Gail – Wikipedia Entry
  Majestic Prince – Wikipedia Entry
  Silver Charm – Wikipedia Entry
  Swaps – Wikipedia Entry

Rescheduled from Feb 6
Las Virgenes, Santa Anita Park
Feb 13, Race 4, Post Time 5:03 PM ET
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Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Grade 1   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $250,000   |   Surface: Synthetic

First run in 1983, the Las Virgenes Stakes has produced a respectable five Kentucky Oaks winners and one Kentucky Derby winner. The most recent Las Virgenes/Oaks winner, Rags to Riches, went on to win the Belmont Stakes in a thrilling stretch duel with 2007 & 2008 Horse of the Year Curlin. MC Hammer’s Oaktown Stable campaigned 1991′s winner Lite Light, who also won the Oaks. 1988 Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors ran second to the eventual Oaks winner Goodbye Halo, while 1995 winner Serena’s Song bypassed the Oaks in favor of the Derby but finished a disappointing 12th. Winners Fran’s Valentine (1985) and Keeper Hill (1998) also went on to win the Kentucky Oaks. Last year’s winner, Stardom Bound, amassed five consecutive Grade 1 wins but did not make it to the gate for the Oaks. She recently made a return to the track as a 4-year-old running a game second in the Grade 2 El Encino Stakes.

Triple Crown nominated Blind Luck heads the field for the 2010 Las Virgenes. Training well off a win in her last race, the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet in December, she’ll be the one to beat. While the distance doesn’t look to be ideal for Blind Luck, the inclusion of recent maiden winner Summer Games and John Sadler trainee Switch will likely provide a lively pace, which will aid Blind Luck’s running style. Also aided by the likely pace scenario is Santa Ysabel winner Crisp, who’s also trained by Sadler. While Crisp is cutting back in distance, Switch is stretching out slightly from seven furlongs to a mile and Sadler boasts a notable 27% win rate in moving from sprints to routes.

Two California breds providing interest are Evening Jewel and La Nez. Evening Jewel captured the filly division in the recent California Cup Championships and then ran a game second to Crisp in the Santa Ysabel. La Nez is cutting back to what looks to be a more favorable distance and her jockey, Mike Smith, has an impressive 50% win rate when teaming up with her trainer Eric Kruljac. La Nez also held her own against Blind Luck and the talented Mi Sueno this past summer in the Darley Debutante at Del Mar. Both Evening Jewel and La Nez have hit the board in the open company against males.

Regardless of whether the end goal is the Derby or the Oaks, the next stop is the $250,000 Santa Anita Oaks on Mar 6.

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
  Las Virgenes – Wikipedia Entry
  Rags to Riches – Wikipedia Entry
  Serena’s Song – Wikipedia Entry
  Winning Colors – Wikipedia Entry
  Lite Light – Wikipedia Entry
  Blind Luck – Horse Racing Nation
  Crisp – Horse Racing Nation
  Evening Jewel – Horse Racing Nation
  La Nez – Horse Racing Nation
  Summer Games – Horse Racing Nation
  Switch – Horse Racing Nation
  Stardom Bound – Horse Racing Nation

Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Santa Anita Park
Feb 13, Race 6, Post Time 6:05 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $150,000   |   Surface: Synthetic

The Robert B. Lewis stakes has had several different names and been run at several different distances since its inception in 1935. Originally named the Santa Catalina Handicap, it was open to horses 3-years-olds and up until 1964 when it became restricted to 3-year-olds. More useful as a Santa Anita Derby prep than a Kentucky Derby prep, the race has produced seven Santa Anita Derby winners compared to only one Kentucky Derby winner.

The 1973 winner of the Santa Catalina/Santa Anita Derby, Sham, ran second to the great Secretariat in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. The only Kentucky Derby winner, Ferdinand (1986), ran third in the Santa Anita Derby. Ferdinand met a sad demise in 2002, ending up in a slaughterhouse in Japan at the end of his breeding career with no notice to his original owners. This eye-opening turn of events helped spur more effort and awareness on behalf of race horses at the end of their careers. More recently, 2005 winner Declan’s Moon, who was thought to be an early Derby favorite, was sidelined with an injury while 2006 winner Brother Derek went on to win the Santa Anita Derby but finished fourth in both the Derby and the Preakness. Last year’s winner, Pioneerof the Nile, also won the Santa Anita Derby and finished second to Mine That Bird in the Derby.

American Lion, the first horse to receive any noticeable Derby hype, returns to the track after winning the seven furlong Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue on Nov 21. The morning line favorite has been training well in anticipation of his return in the first two-turn prep race in California. The highly regarded Stuka Stakes winner Tiz Chrome and the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes winner Caracortado both come into the race undefeated. Caracortado is the only winner at the distance over the track at Santa Anita.

Dave in Dixie is the only other entrant to previously try the distance in the Grade 1 Norfolk on Oct 4. On a break since his sixth place effort in the Norfolk, he’s been training well with an emphasis on endurance works. Rounding out the field is Tango Tango, who comes in off a win in a six furlong $32,000 optional claiming race at Golden Gate Fields for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Domonation is now entered in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Monday Feb 15 while Macias will run in the Baffle Stakes, a 6 1/2 furlong turf sprint, at Santa Anita on Saturday.

The March 13 $150,000 Grade 2 San Felipe stakes is the next likely target for those advancing from the Robert B. Lewis.

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
  Robert B. Lewis Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Sham – Wikipedia Entry
  Ferdinand – Wikipedia Entry
  Brother Derek – Wikipedia Entry
  American Lion – Horse Racing Nation
  Caracortado – Horse Racing Nation
  Dave in Dixie – Horse Racing Nation
  Domonation – Horse Racing Nation
  Macias – Horse Racing Nation
  Tango Tango – Horse Racing Nation
  Tiz Chrome – Horse Racing Nation

Recaps – Feb 6
Whirlaway Stakes, Aqueduct
Feb 6, Race 3, Post Time 1:26 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Stakes   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $100,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Peppi Knows   |   Place: Afleet Again   |   Show: Three Day Rush

When heavily favored Eightyfiveinafifty bolted on the first turn and eliminated himself from the race, the expected dynamics of the race vanished with him. Papa’s Nice Cat became the unintentional pacesetter, with Peppi Knows under Richard Migliore sitting just behind him. Peppi Knows followed the leader comfortably until he began to make his move on the far turn, taking the lead easily and holding off a challenge in the stretch from Afleet Again.

Difficult to say that this race had any significant impact on the Derby trail; we still don’t know what Eightyfiveinafifty will do at a distance, and the final time of 1:40.44 doesn’t indicate that Peppi Knows is going to be much of a Classic contender. Perhaps the horse to keep an eye on is Three Day Rush, who was brought wide when Eightyfiveinafifty bolted, was briefly rank, and then settled comfortably a couple of lengths behind the leaders, finishing well and only a length and a half behind the winner.

Full Results and Replay

  – Teresa Genaro, Brooklyn Backstretch

Further Reading:

  Whirlaway Stakes – Wikipedia Entry
  Afleet Again – Horse Racing Nation
  Eightyfiveinafifty – Horse Racing Nation
  Papa’s Nice Cat – Horse Racing Nation
  Peppi Knows – Horse Racing Nation
  Three Day Rush – Horse Racing Nation



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