April 17, 2010 Derby Prep Alert

Hello Race Fans!
Since it seems unlikely that any winners of this week’s prep will end up in the Derby, it’s now a matter of wait and see to find out who will be in the starting gate. A few horses are already out of the picture. Formerly #21 in the earnings, Uh Oh Bango is officially out with an injury, while Odysseus might be out with an injury and the connections of Noble’s Promise are on the fence. You can keep track of all the earnings at Daily Racing Form.
Jockey assignments will be another topic of interest as Derby day gets closer. So far Garrett Gomez will be keeping his mount on Lookin at Lucky, despite his unfortunate ride in the Santa Anita Derby. John Velazquez will ride likely favorite Eskendereya, which leaves Rule in need of a jockey. Calvin Borel will ride Super Saver, David Flores keeps the mount on American Lion and Robby Albarado stays with Endorsement.
Today is the final day to add two supplemental horses to your Road to the Roses stable! If you think have the Derby winner in your stable, you might want to pick up some entrants in this weekend’s Lexington.
This week at HRF we continue to discuss wagering strategy and roll out two new sections! Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda: The “Weak” in Review debuts. The goal of the section is to share our mistakes and missteps to help you, our beloved readers, learn from our errors and realize that everyone learns the hard way. We also started the new HRF this week as a way to make it easy to keep up with what we’re publishing. This week we put our money where our mouth was and tried some ideas from our posts… and came out ahead!
The shake up continues in the Hello Race Fans League!
1. Barry Mitchell – Pari Mutual Wagering (315)
2. Gary Schneekloth – HoosYourDaddy (311)
3. Shaena Kershner – Space Gal Stables (294)
Gary and Barry trade spots with Space Gal still in contention… just two more weeks!
Upcoming Races – April 17
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Coolmore Lexington Stakes, Keeneland
April 17, Race 9, Post Time 5:15 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles | Class: Grade 2 | Condition: 3-year-olds | Purse: $300,000 | Surface: Synthetic |
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Run at different distances under different conditions, and on a different surface from its inception in 1936, the Coolmore Lexington Stakes has only produced one Kentucky Derby winner. Charismatic went on to win the 1999 Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but an injury sustained during the Belmont kept him from winning the Triple Crown. Four Lexington winners went on to win Classic races: Master Derby (1975) won the Preakness; Risen Star (1988) won the Preakness and Belmont; Hansel (1991) won the Preakness and Belmont; and Touch Gold (1997) won the Belmont.
Given the low earnings of this year’s field in combination with the race’s purse structure, it’s unlikely that any of the starters will go on to the Derby. But given last week’s upsets in both the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes, this wide open, full field could prove to be a fun and profitable race! The sentimental favorite will no doubt Uptowncharlybrown as his trainer, Alan Seewald, passed away earlier this week. The colt had his share of trouble in his last two graded attempts and he’s never tried a synthetic surface, but he is training well. Todd Pletcher’s Exhi looks to be the controlling speed and could easily wire the field. Several runners look to be on the pace, including Heavenville, who won his last out at this distance by six lengths in the Crescent City Derby; Kettle River, whose last win was at the distance; and Krypton, who may have had a breakthrough performance last out but who is stretching out in distance.
Others who seem plausible are John Sadler’s Distorted Dave, who won an $80,000 first level allowance at the distance last out. Sadler’s Line of David was the surprise winner of the Arkansas Derby. Call Shot seems questionable for the distance based on his racing record, but he makes a return to synthetics, which seem to be his best surface. Lonesome Street ran second to Exhi last out and has been working consistently, while another Pletcher trainee, Connemara, could improve off the slight cutback in distance. Other entrants include Prince Will I Am and Chief Counsel.
– Dana Byerly, Green but Game
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Further Reading:
Coolmore Lexington Stakes – Wikipedia
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Comely Stakes, Aqueduct
April 10, Race 9, Post Time 4:50 PM ET
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Distance: 1 Mile | Class: Grade 3 | Condition: 3-year-old fillies | Purse: $100,000 | Surface: Dirt |
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Win: Touching Beauty | Place: Speightful Affair | Show: C C’s Pal
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Winning her second consecutive race, Touching Beauty would appear to be regaining the form that she displayed last summer, when she broke her maiden at first asking at Saratoga and followed up that win with a second in the Grade 2 Matron at Belmont. She might have been settling for second, though, had the race been run cleanly.
Odds-on favorite and unbeaten She’ll Be Doggone broke gamely and went for the lead before jockey Edgar Prado settled her down, racing in the two path down the backstretch and dropping over to the rail as the field headed into the far turn.
She’ll Be Doggone raced in fourth, and at the 3/16 pole Prado steered her to a hole between the rail and pace-setter Anchorage under Fernando Jara. As Prado and She’ll Be Doggone made their move, Anchorage came over suddenly, causing She’ll Be Doggone to check so sharply that she literally sat down on the racetrack; skillfully handling by Prado kept the filly-and the jockey-upright and safe, but She’ll Be Doggone lost all chance, finishing next to last.
Anchorage, too, was compromised, and Touching Beauty, who had stalked the moderate pace throughout, raced to the lead unchallenged to win by a half length over the closing Speightful Affair, who had raced at the back or middle of the pack until tipped out in the stretch by jockey David Cohen.
She’ll Be Doggone’s recovery is one of the more remarkable acts that you’ll see on a racetrack this year, and it seems a miracle that neither filly nor jockey were hurt. Hard to think that she wouldn’t been a factor had she raced unimpeded, but impossible to say that she would have won, so after an inquiry, the order of finish was let stand. And take nothing away from Touching Beauty, a filly whose connections apparently had high hopes for her last year, and who now owns a Grade 3 victory. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens indicated that she might head next to the Grade 1 Prioress at Belmont on July 4.
Full Results and Replay
– Teresa Genaro, Brooklyn Backstretch
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Further Reading:
Comely Stakes – NYRA
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Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland
April 10, Race 9, Post Time 5:30 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Class: Grade 1 | Condition: 3-year-olds | Purse: $750,000 | Surface: Synthetic |
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Win: Stately Victor | Place: Paddy O’Prado | Show: First Dude |
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The Blue Grass added another chapter to its recent tradition of peculiarity; 40-1 longshot Stately Victor, whose only previous win came in a Maiden Special Weight on the turf last year, took the record for biggest upset from Dust Commander with his victory. Paddy O’ Prado finished second, with First Dude holding off the more fancied Interactif for third. Codoy and Make Music for Me remained midpack throughout, while the more experienced and accomplished horses in the field all finished up the track – Pleasant Prince, Aikenite and Odysseus rounded out the order of finish, with their connections no doubt rueing the decision not to run in the Arkansas Derby. While Stately Victor seems unlikely to follow in Dust Commander’s hoofprints by winning the Kentucky Derby in his next start, stranger things have happened – just ask anyone who was at Churchill Downs last year on Derby Day.
Full Results and Replay
– Lisa Grimm, Superfectablog
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Further Reading:
Blue Grass Stakes – Wikipedia
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Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park
April 10, Race 9, Post Time 5:48 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Class: Grade 1 | Condition: 3-year-olds | Purse: $1,000,000 | Surface: Dirt |
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Win: Line of David | Place: Super Saver | Show: Dublin |
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Less then 30 minutes after Stately Victor shocked the patrons at Keeneland in Kentucky by winning the Bluegrass Stakes at 40 to 1, Line of David did the same at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs with a win in the Arkansas Derby.
After setting fast fractions in leading the entire way, Line of David looked dead in the water at the head of the stretch as Super Saver and Dublin, who tracked in second and third, began to bear down on the Lion Heart colt. But the California shipper refused to be passed and won by a nose at 17 to 1. Super Saver finished in second and Dublin third. Race favorite, Noble’s Promise, finished fifth.
Line of David had won his previous two races over the turf at Santa Anita at one mile. The Arkansas Derby was his sixth career start and his first try on a dirt surface. With the $600,000 winners purse, he assures himself a place in the gate for the Kentucky Derby. It will be the second Derby starter for California trainer John Sadler, who also trains Sidney’s Candy. Colts that are likely to run in the Kentucky Derby out the the race are Dublin and Super Saver.
Full Results and Replay
– Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost
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Further Reading:
Arkansas Derby – Wikipedia Entry
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