April 10, 2010 Derby Prep Alert Charts and PPs provided by Brisnet

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Hello Race Fans!

With Eskendereya’s romp in the Wood Memorial last weekend he’s the current Kentucky Derby favorite. What will his odds be on Derby day? Steve Crist takes a look at the price on Derby favorites for the past 25 years and how they fared.

Eskendereya is also currently 5th in earnings. As we turn into the stretch on Derby Prep season, earnings will become the main story as only the top 20 horses by graded earnings make it into the gate on Derby day. Horses “on the bubble” at 21 and above have to wait to see if any of the horses in the top 20 opt not to run, sort of like flying stand-by! Even though it’s only three weeks away, a lot can change between now and then.

The Daily Racing Form is offering free past performances of the top 30 horses by graded earnings! (pdf) And you can also keep track of the current standings by graded earnings at their site.

As a reminder, this week's prep races will be televised on NBC from 5 - 6 PM ET. Check your local listings.

In other racing news, undefeated champion mare Zenyatta makes the second start of her 6-year-old campaign in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park today. The Daily Racing Form will stream the race and Claire Novak will be blogging from Oaklawn. Post time is 7:25 PM ET and DRF will begin streaming at 6:55 PM ET. Check their homepage for details.

And this week at Hello Race Fans we offer some ideas for spring cleaning your wagering strategy! If you’ve always wanted to try multi-race exotic wagers such as the Pick 3 or Pick 4, take a look at Singling and Spreading. If you think that only exotic wagers such as the exacta or trifecta offer value, guess again. Check out Win, Place, Show: Finding Value in the Basics. And finally, if you’re just looking for some new ideas, try the current HRF Index, Top 5 Favorite Wagers, where our panelists rank their favorite wagers and share their thoughts.

There’s been a shake-up in the standings this week in the Road to the Roses League!

1. Gary Schneekloth – HoosYourDaddy (311)
2. Barry Mitchell – Pari Mutual Wagering (307)
3. Shaena Kershner – Space Gal Stables (294)

The top three stables remain the same but the order has changed.

Upcoming Races – April 10
Comely Stakes, Aqueduct
April 10, Race 9, Post Time 4:50 PM ET
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Distance: 1 Mile   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $100,000   |   Surface: Dirt

First run in 1945, the Comely is named for the magnificent filly who at two beat older horses, giving them weight, in the Fall Highweight in 1914. Though for most of its existence it’s been restricted to three-year-old fillies, it has never yielded a Kentucky Oaks winner, and that is unlikely to change this year. There’s not a graded stakes winner in the bunch, and three of the eight entrants are eligible for first-level allowance races.

Roman Chestnut, Anchorage, and Speightful Lady finished in that order in the ungraded Busher Stakes at Aqueduct in February; Roman Chestnut caught Anchorage late to win by a length, while Speightful Lady, who’d been in contention for much of the race, ended up by third by five and a half. The cutback from 1 1/6 miles to a mile will likely serve her well. Anchorage, a daughter of Tapit, comes from the same team that won the Belmont with Rags to Riches and has a win at the distance. Roman Chestnut gets her fifth jockey in six starts, which doesn’t seem to bother her as she’s hit the board in four of six starts.

Lightly raced She’ll Be Doggone is two-for-two with a win over a sloppy Aqueduct main track last fall; she stretches out for the first time and loses perennial leading rider Ramon Dominguez, who will be in Kentucky on Saturday and will be replaced by Edgar Prado. Owner Eric Fein and trainer Derek Ryan, the connections of Musket Man and Schoolyard Dreams, bring C C’s Pal up from Tampa for the Comely. Three back, she raced against Schoolyard Dreams in an optional claimer; he won, she finished nearly five lengths back in third. She comes to this race off a second-place finish in the Florida Oaks; the winner of that race, Diva Delite, was third this week in the Grade 2 Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland.

Completing the field are Indian Burn, winner of the Ruthless at Aqueduct in January; Volare Cantare, coming up from Florida for Anthony Dutrow; and Jimmy Jerkens’s Touching Beauty, who has failed to live up to her 2-year-old promise (she won in her first start at Saratoga last summer and followed that win with a second in the Grade 2 Matron), though she comes to the race off a neck win in an allowance at Gulfstream.

  – Teresa Genaro, Brooklyn Backstretch

Further Reading:

  Comely Stakes – NYRA

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland
April 10, Race 9, Post Time 5:30 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/8Miles   |   Class: Grade 1   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $750,000   |   Surface: Synthetic

While illustrious winners of the Blue Grass Stakes in the past include Northern Dancer, Riva Ridge, Alydar and Spectacular Bid, the race in recent years has proven to be a bit more head-scratching, and not only because of the switch to a synthetic surface. Sinister Minister ran away with the 2006 race and turned in a Kentucky Derby dud shortly thereafter, while 2007 Derby champion Street Sense finished something of a dull second to synthetic specialist Dominican in their final Derby prep.

This year’s installment looks to be something of a graded stakes earnings grab – while Interactif is safe in the middle of the pack, Odysseus and Pleasant Prince need a bit more to get back into the top 20, and Aikenite is perilously close to the bottom of the list. But not everyone is using the race as a Derby prep – Codoy is simply looking to pick up a Grade 1 win, as his connections do not see dirt in his future. It may be a tall order for him here, though.

While Interactif and Aikenite should be quite comfortable at Keeneland, the two Todd Pletcher trainees will have outside posts to overcome – but that often seems an easier order on Polytrack than on conventional dirt, and both have displayed their talents in previous outings. The question of whether Odysseus will run well on the track is an open one – can he handle synthetics, or will he fail to pick up a check, simply because he does not like the surface? And will the inside post be a help or a hindrance? After his gutsy Tampa Bay Derby win, it would be a shame to see him locked out of the Derby over money, and so Tom Albertrani has given him a few days to get used to the track.

Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince is the morning line favorite; he’s been working bullets at Keeneland for trainer Wesley Ward, and he should put in a good effort; that would give owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey a second Derby starter for this year to line up alongside Dean’s Kitten. Dale Romans-trained Paddy O’Prado beat Dean’s Kitten on turf in the Palm Beach at Gulfstream and has been useful on dirt – Polytrack may well be his ideal surface. While it’s a bit of a step up in class, he’s been working very well toward this race.

Trainer Alexis Barber’s Make Music For Me has finished in the money behind Lookin At Lucky on a few occasions and has some experience at Keeneland, although his only win came in the Pasadena Stakes at Santa Anita – he seems a notch below his stablemate, Alphie’s Bet, no longer a likely Derby contender. Well-bred Stately Victor has yet to make an impact in this sort of company (unless you count his second-place finish behind Winslow Homer in a Maiden Special Weight as a 2-year-old); First Dude’s only win also came in a Maiden Special Weight, and it seems that something very peculiar would have to happen to find him hitting the board.

  – Lisa Grimm, Superfectablog

Further Reading:

  Blue Grass Stakes – Wikipedia

Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park
April 10, Race 9, Post Time 5:48 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/8 Miles   |   Class: Grade 1   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $1,000,000   |   Surface: Dirt

On Saturday, the Arkansas Derby will be run for the 74th time at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. While the race has been around since 1936, it has had a resurgence since Smarty Jones won the race in 2004 on his way to winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown. In 2005, Afleet Alex won the Preakness and the Belmont after winning the Arkansas Derby. The only other colt besides Smarty Jones to win both the Arkansas and Kentucky Derby is Sunny Halo (1983). Arkansas Derby winners Temperance Hill (1980) and Victory Gallop (1998) went on to win the Belmont Stakes; Curlin (2007) and Pine Bluff (1992) won the Preakness Stakes. In 1984, the filly Althea set the stakes records in winning the Arkansas Derby but finished a disappointing 19th in the Kentucky Derby.

After Lookin at Lucky impressively won in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, many hoped he would return for the Arkansas Derby but instead, he ran last weekend in the Santa Anita Derby. The two colts that finished behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel, Noble’s Promise and Dublin, will return for the Arkansas Derby. Dublin’s trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, also enters Northern Giant, who has finished second and third in two graded stakes this year. The Todd Pletcher-trained Super Saver will likely go off as one of the favorites. In his three-year-old debut, he set the pace in the Tampa Bay Derby but could only manage a third place finish behind the talented Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams. Tim Ice, trainer of last year’s Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird, enters recent maiden breaker New Madrid. New Madrid finished a close second two races back to Sunland Derby winner Endorsement. Uh Oh Bango, who showed promise as a 2-year-old, hopes to improve off a disappointing fourth in the Rebel Stakes.

  – Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Further Reading:

  Arkansas Derby – Wikipedia Entry

Recaps – April 3
Fantasy Stakes, Oaklawn Park
April 2, Race 10, Post Time 6:47 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 2   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $300,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Blind Luck   |   Place: Tidal Pool   |   Show: No Such Word   |  

No question about it: Blind Luck is going to be tough to beat in the April 30 Kentucky Oaks. The cleverly named chestnut filly by Pollard’s Vision (who was blind in one eye and himself named for Red Pollard, a jockey who was similarly visually impaired) out of the Best of Luck mare Lucky One put on a dominating off-pace performance in the Fantasy, content to sit well back of early front-runners Tidal Pool and All Due Respect before cruising to an easy two and a half length win. Tidal Pool hung on for second, while All Due Respect faded badly to finish last, nearly 13 lengths behind one-paced No Such Word.

Blind Luck’s time for the 1 1/16 mile Fantasy (1:42.56) was impressive, lending credence to the belief by some racing fans that it is the Kentucky Derby, not the Oaks, that should be the filly’s next target. However, her connections have indicated that the Oaks is the goal.

Full Results and Replay

  – Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:

  Fantasy Stakes – Wikipedia Entry

Wood Memorial, Aqueduct
April 3, Race 9, Post Time 5:12 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/8 Miles   |   Class: Grade 1   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $750,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: Eskendereya   |   Place: Jackson Bend   |   Show: Awesome Act

The field for the Wood Memorial featured four stakes-placed runners, two of whom–Eskendereya and Awesome Act–were coming in off impressive victories last out. A third, Schoolyard Dreams, had been beaten by an agonizing nose. The Wood should have been, might have been, one of the more contentious Derby preps of the year.

But by the time the field hit the top of the stretch, it was clear that everyone else was running for second place, as Todd Pletcher’s Eskendereya drew off easily when asked; jockey John Velazquez moved only to peek back to see if he had any competition. He didn’t.

The final margin of victory nearly ten lengths, and the dominating win coupled with the generous purse have virtually ensured Eskendereya’s place as this year’s Kentucky Derby favorite. Nick Zito’s Jackson Bend hung on for second place behind the son of Giant’s Causeway, as he did in the Fountain of Youth; Gotham winner Awesome Act, who broke badly and lost a shoe, finished well to be third. The top three finishers, earnings permitting, are all still firmly on the Derby trail.

Full Results and Replay

  – Teresa Genaro, Brooklyn Backstretch

Further Reading:

  Wood Memorial – NYRA

Ashland Stakes, Keeneland
April 3, Race 9, Post Time 5:20 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/16 Miles   |   Class: Grade 1   |   Condition: 3-year-old fillies   |   Purse: $400,000   |   Surface: Synthetic
Win: Evening Jewel   |   Place: It’s Tea Time   |   Show: She Be Wild

Champions She Be Wild and Negligee were the stars heading into the Ashland Stakes, but it was 5-1 Evening Jewel who shone at Keeneland. Coming off a nose loss in the Las Virgenes to Blind Luck, winner of the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn the day before, the Northern Afleet filly led at every point of call to take the Ashland by a neck over 18-1 longshot It’s Tea Time. The final time for the race was 1:43.54. Flattening out in the stretch after tracking the winner’s placid early fractions of :24.16 and :48.23, She Be Wild finished third as the 2-1 favorite. Negligee, the 3-1 second favorite, making her first start in six months, showed little response when asked to go as the field hit the final turn and faded to a seventh-place finish.

Evening Jewel, purchased for $8,000 as a yearling and first or second in all of her starts but one, is now a leading contender for the Kentucky Oaks. Trainer James Cassidy said the filly would return to Santa Anita to complete her Oaks prep. “We can keep her happier out there rather than leaving her here with someone else.” Runner-up It’s Tea Time is also possible for the Oaks. This filly bears watching: After a ground-saving trip deep into the stretch, It’s Tea Time made a strong late run at Evening Jewel, narrowly missing the win when she lost a stride coming off the rail.

Full Results and Replay

  – Jessica Chapel, Railbird

Further Reading:

  Ashland Stakes – Wikipedia

Illinois Derby, Hawthorne
April 3, Race 9, Post Time 5:36 PM ET
Website

Distance: 1 1/8 Miles   |   Class: Grade 3   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $300,000   |   Surface: Dirt
Win: American Lion   |   Place: Yawanna Twist   |   Show: Backtalk

The only doubt about American Lion’s wire-to-wire win in the Illinois Derby came as he stumbled slightly when the gates opened, but from there it was all systems go as he dragged the stalking Yawanna Twist around Hawthorne Race Course before finally pulling away in the last eighth to win by three lengths. It was a long way back to Backtalk who closed for third.

With the win, American Lion locked up enough graded stakes earnings to move forward to the Kentucky Derby. He would be trainer Eoin Harty’s third consecutive entry into the Kentucky Derby with a son of Tiznow (Colonel John 2008, Mr Hot Stuff 2009), all three with owners WinStar Farms.

With the exception of Backtalk, who is currently 18th on the graded stakes earnings list, the other Illinois Derby starters, including second place finisher Yawanna Twist, are on the outside looking in based on career graded stakes earnings.

Full Results and Replay

  – Chris Rossi, @o_crunk

Further Reading:

  Illinois Derby – Wikipedia

Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita Park
April 3, Race 9, Post Time 5:37 PM ET
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Distance: 1 1/8 Miles   |   Class: Grade 1   |   Condition: 3-year-olds   |   Purse: $750,000   |   Surface: Synthetic
Win: Sidney’s Candy   |   Place: Setsuko   |   Show: Lookin at Lucky

Noted as a distinct possibility in last week’s preview, Sidney’s Candy controlled the pace and wired the field. In one of the most dramatic Derby preps so far this year, Lookin at Lucky was essentially taken out of the race around the 3/4 pole when longshot Skipshot bumped into him, causing him to check (alter his course). This also impacted Caracortado, who was behind Lookin at Lucky.

Both Lookin at Lucky and Caracortado rallied impressively for third and fourth, but one of the overlooked performances was that of Setsuko. The Richard Mandella-trainee sat at the back of the pack at least 11 lengths behind the leader, came wide, and closed into soft fractions to get second. You may remember that Setsuko was mentioned as a horse to watch in the Sham Stakes in the March 6 edition of the Derby Prep Alert.

Sidney’s Candy and Lookin at Lucky have the earnings to go to the Derby, but Setsuko and Caracortado are on the bubble at #25 and #30. It’s more likely that Setsuko will make it in the gate than Caracortado, who’s connections are eyeing the Preakness as possibility.

Will Sidney’s Candy fare as well if he can’t control the pace? Will Lookin at Lucky find traffic trouble, as he has on more than one occasion so far? Will outsiders Setsuko and Caracortado even get a shot? It won’t be long now before we know the answers to these questions, with just three weeks until the first Saturday in May!

Full Results and Replay

  – Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:

  Santa Anita Derby – Wikipedia



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