Hello Race Fans! – January 27, 2012 Derby Prep Alert

January 27, 2012 Derby Prep Alert

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New for 2012: Free Past Performances for All Graded Kentucky Derby & Oaks prep races, courtesy of Brisnet.com!

Hello Race Fans!

This is a great time of the year to remind ourselves that the Kentucky Derby is as much about the journey as the destination. Steve Haskin, senior correspondent for Blood-Horse, follows the Derby trail closely in his weekly column and was kind enough to pen “How to find a Derby Winner” for our Letter to New Horseplayer series:

“So, you can scrutinize over the top 3-year-olds all you want in January and February as long as you realize that the Derby winner might not even be a blip on the radar screen at that point.”

Read the full article here.

In addition to two Kentucky Oaks preps and a Kentucky Derby prep that features the current juvenile champion, there’s plenty of other great racing this weekend. The Sunshine Millions series takes place on Saturday at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park and features undefeated Awesome Feather trying to bring her record to 9-9, as well as the return of fan-favorite Mucho Macho Man, whom you may remember from last year’s Derby trail.

Find out more about the history of the Sunshine Millions and its radical retooling for this year. In honor of the premiere of the HBO series Luck, there will be a special Luck $1 minimum Pick 6 wager for the Sunshine Millions. If you’ve ever wanted to try a Pick 6, this might be good time to consider it, given that the minimum wager is usually $2. We’ve got info to help you with handicapping and ticket construction as well as free past performances from Brisnet.com!

News about the Contenders
Daily Racing Form: Gulfstream Park: Allowance draws intriguing cast of 3-year-olds
Daily Racing Form: Grace Hall still on target for Davona Dale
Daily Racing Form: Midnight Transfer to go long in San Felipe
Daily Racing Form: Union Rags has sharp work prepping for Fountain of Youth
Daily Racing Form: Two headed to Tampa for Sam F. Davis
Thoroughbred Times: Stephanoatsee out until July
Raceday 360 Wire: Posts about the Kentucky Derby
Raceday 360 Wire: Posts about the Kentucky Oaks

Upcoming Races – Jan 28, 2012

First run in 1968, the Santa Ysabel has yet to produce a Kentucky Oaks winner. 1997 winner Sharp Cat went on to win six more graded races that year, including the Bayakoa in the first ever walkover at Hollywood Park! 2005 winner Sweet Catomine didn’t get a chance to run in the Kentucky Oaks. The reigning 2-year-old champion filly won the Santa Anita Oaks but was retired after running fifth in the Santa Anita Derby against colts amid an odd scandal about the state of her health. Will this year be the year that the Santa Ysabel produces a Kentucky Oaks winner?

Seven fillies look to make a name for themselves on a circuit brimming with 3-year-old talent in this year’s Santa Ysabel Stakes. Several entries have already met a few times, with headliners Killer Graces and Charm the Maker trading wins in their last two starts.

The race looks to be a lively affair from a pace perspective with the two most likely pace factors in the first and second post position. Coup de Coeur got the best of Killer Graces in the Soviet Problem Stakes at the distance but threw a clunker on the turf last out. Given her last two starts, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her shoot out of the gate and grab the lead. Lightly raced Eden’s Moon in the second post position might very well go right with Coup de Coeur. The Bob Baffert trainee encountered the impressive Reneesgotzip, winner of the Grade 2 Santa Ynez, in her first start but crushed the field by almost 12 lengths next out.

Batalha in the third post owns a maiden win over the turf at a mile and ran second to Lady of Shamrock in her last race. She’s likely to be near the pace as is Willa B Awesome from the fourth post, who’s already raced nine times and had the misfortune to go up against Ismene last out in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes where she ran second. She also ran third to Charm the Maker and Killer Graces in the Sharp Cat.

Lady of Shamrock has the advantage of being the only one likely to sit off the pace, should everyone be gunning up front, Lady of Shamrock would be well positioned to pick up the pieces as others tire if she’s good enough. Being by Scat Daddy, the leading freshman sire of 2011, doesn’t hurt either. Her starts to date have been over turf, where she’s won at the distance and in stakes company, but her recent works have been over the dirt and it’s the right time of the year to discover if your talented turf horse will also take to the dirt. She’s a half to Smooth Jazz, who’s a graded winner on dirt, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Killer Graces may have been the upset winner of the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet (replay), but she also won the Landaluce and Cinderella early in her 2-year-old season. Heavily favored Weemissfrankie didn’t fire in the Starlet and came out with an injury, but Killer Graces’ performance was solid and shouldn’t overlooked. She is, however, a Hollywood Park home girl and will have to transfer her good form to Santa Anita, something that doesn’t always happen. But she’s been training well at Santa Anita and if you like her, you’ll probably be hard pressed to get a good price, and for good reason.

Charm the Maker looks to exact her revenge on Killer Graces and has an interesting work tab full of endurance works to bolster her effort. She also switches jockeys to current leading meet rider Rafael Bejarano, who might be a bit more suited to her running style than former rider Garrett Gomez, who’s out with an injury. Headstrong in the Starlet, she fought with Gomez for most of the race and came up a bit empty in the stretch when Killer Graces made her move, but she didn’t give up.

This race is full of possibilities and talent. Sunny California looks to have more than its fair share of talented sophomore fillies this year!

- Dana Byerly, Green but Game

The Forward Gal Stakes is named after the 1970 champion 2-year-old filly and was first run in 1981. Contested at 7 furlongs on the dirt, it has produced sprinters and distance runners including 2008′s Female Turf Champion, Forever Together (2007). 1981 winner Heavenly Cause went on to win the Kentucky Oaks, and 1989 winner Open Mind won not only the Kentucky Oaks, but also what was once known as the Triple Tiara, the filly equivalent of the Triple Crown: the Acorn, Mother Goose and Coaching Club American Oaks. Several Forward Gal winners finished second in subsequent Kentucky Oaks, namely Miss Oceana (1984) and Withallprobability (1991), while 2004 winner Madcap Escapade finished third in the Oaks.

This year’s field includes six fillies that, in terms of breeding, appear to be legitimate Kentucky Oaks contenders. A hunch player’s dream team, Sacristy and Say a Novena both return from the Grade 3 Old Hat where the former defeated the latter by nearly two lengths. Both came from off the pace in that New Year’s Day event, something to consider if the Gulfstream track on Sunday is favoring front-runners instead of closers. That said, Say a Novena’s trainer Edward Plesa has chosen to add blinkers, and a recent 5-furlong bullet workout indicate that this Grade 2 runner-up should be more engaged early.

Prior to her fourth place finish in the Old Hat, Quick Flip was undefeated in three starts, including a sharp win in the Sandpiper Stakes. However, stretching out for the first time beyond six furlongs doesn’t appear particularly advantageous for this front-running Speightstown filly. Immediately inside her, Good Deed is also an early speedster and suitably bred sprinter; not only was her dam Hidden Assets a Grade 3-winning sprinter, but Good Deed’s half brother Country Day finished second behind Regally Ready in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

A juvenile allowance winner, Broadway’s Alibi is beautifully bred, from the last crop of Vindication, out of a half sister to G1 Florida Derby victor Dialed In. Her half sister R Gypsy Gold ran third in last year’s Grade 1 Mother Goose, so her breeding suggests this filly will enjoy longer distances—definitely one to watch later, although she’s already posted some of the fastest BRIS speed figures in the field.

For a price, Calder shipper Yara is a nice inclusion in your exotics—if she can get on pace early. Her dam Ashlee’s Lady is a half sister to millionaire Grade 1 winner Healthy Addiction; this is also the family of Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks winner Maren’s Meadow. While her speed figures don’t put her in the same class as the others, this race has a history of popping surprises. Last year’s winner Pomeroys Pistol and runner-up Dancinginherdreams made sense, but no one gave 82-1 longshot Evil Queen much of a chance—and she fleshed out a $1 trifecta that paid $623.50. Depending on how she looks in the post parade, Yara could be a profitable risk.

- Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

The Holy Bull Stakes started in 1990 as the Prevue Stakes. In 1996 the race name changed to honor Holy Bull, the 1994 Florida Derby winner and a 2001 inductee to the United States Racing Hall of Fame. The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes is one of the keystone races for 3-year-olds during Gulfstream Park’s meet. Gulfstream has historically produced many Kentucky Derby contenders.

Go for Gin (1994) and Barbaro (1996) won the Holy Bull Stakes and the Kentucky Derby. In 2005, Closing Argument won the Holy Bull and ran second in the Kentucky Derby at odds of 71-1. In 2003, Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide made his his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull, finishing fifth. Colts who prove themselves in this year’s Holy Bull will likely return in Gulfstream’s other important Derby preps: the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 26 and the prestigious Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 31.

Last year, a relative unknown named Dialed In won the Holy Bull after a single career start and went on to win the Florida Derby. He finished a disappointing eighth in the Kentucky Derby and hasn’t raced since a fourth place finish in the Preakness.

This year’s edition brings the most heralded juvenile of 2011 to Gulfstream Park for the first of Florida’s big three-year-old races. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old Eclipse champion, Hansen will make his 3-year-old debut in the 2012 Holy Bull Stakes. The son of Tapit has never been headed in any of his three career starts and has already proven himself against the best of his class. He has been training steadily at Gulfstream Park since the end of December and will have last year’s Eclipse-winning jockey Ramon Dominguez in the irons. Hansen is the lone graded stakes winner in the field of six and will be the heavy betting favorite in the Holy Bull.

Consortium and Algorithms are both exiting a 6 1/2 furlong optional claiming race run at Gulfstream Park in December (replay). Consortium ran close to a hot pace that day and Algorithms passed him in deep stretch to beat him by a length. Algorithms earned a triple-digit BRIS Speed Rating for his effort and is the only other contender along with Hansen who has broken 100 on the BRIS scale. Out of proven distance sire Bernardini, Algorithms should have no problem stretching out beyond a mile. He appears to be the biggest threat to the 2-year-old champ in the Holy Bull.

The only two contenders with graded stakes experience other than Hansen are Fort Loudon and My Adonis. My Adonis finished 27 lengths back in his only graded stakes experience in the Delta Jackpot in November but has fired two bullets in his first recorded works of the 2012. He is trained by Kelly Breen who won last year’s Belmont Stakes with Ruler on Ice.

After sweeping three Florida-bred stakes for 2-year-olds at Calder, Fort Loudon drew a tough post and had a wide trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished a distant ninth. The home-bred out of an obscure Florida sire for veteran trainer Stanley Gold, Fort Loudon would make for an interesting story should he pull off the upset at Gulfstream on Sunday.

Dale Romans’ Silver Max, a recent maiden winner after six starts, could potentially contest the early pace, but he will be a rightful longshot among the six starters.

- Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Recaps – Jan 21, 2012

Mr. Bowling’s win in Saturday’s Grade 3, $175,000 Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds capped a memorable day for trainer Larry Jones and a significant week for the colt’s sire, Istan.

Jones also won the filly counterpart race, the Silverbulletday, with Believe You Can, who is now firmly on the Kentucky Oaks trail. Mr. Bowling was the fourth winner last week for freshman sire Istan, notable considering he has a small number of runners from this first crop.

Jones said he expected Mr. Bowling to improve with longer races and maturity, and the colt’s experience showed as he stayed the course despite a late challenge from runner-up Z Dager.

Jockey Robby Albarado, aboard Mr. Bowling for the first time, played an integral role in the victory as he didn’t rush the colt into the early pace. Mr. Bowling sat mid-pack until the far turn, when he advanced between runners and took the lead in the upper stretch. Z Dager, the co-favorite guided by Shane Sellers, made a late move to challenge Mr. Bowling but couldn’t reach him. Sellers said Z Dager, a son of Mizzen Mast who was making his third start, is still learning.

“When he saw daylight, he kind of was a little bit green down the lane,” Sellers said.

Mr. Bowling completed the 1 mile and 70 yards in a solid 1:43.49. He has won three of his last four races.

Another strong performance was that of co-favorite Dan and Sheila, making just his second lifetime start after a debut win at Gulfstream. The son of More Than Ready, who was fourth, made up significant ground late, and the experience of navigating traffic in a full field is to his benefit.

Remington Park shipper Ted’s Folly saw his six-race win streak come to an end with a ninth-place finish. The gelding made an early move but couldn’t match strides with the rest. Also a disappointment was Bashford Manor and Sugar Bowl Stakes winner Exfactor, who faded quickly in the stretch to finish 11th in the field of 13.

Trainers for the top three finishers of the Lecomte said they are pointing their runners to the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 25, the last major Fair Grounds prep before the marquee Louisiana Derby on April 1.

- Jen Jade, In The Money

Results Chart Courtesy of Brisnet.com