Hello Race Fans! – February 5, 2011 Derby Prep Alert

February 5, 2011 Derby Prep Alert

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New for 2012: Free Past Performances for All Graded Kentucky Derby & Oaks prep races, courtesy of Brisnet.com!

Hello Race Fans!

The Derby trail takes a little break this week, but there is one Oaks prep, the Grade 1 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita.

One of the important things discussed in Steve Haskin’s How to Find a Derby Winner post from last week is looking for a horse that shows improvement: “Finally, and this is the most important factor, make sure your horse keeps showing steady improvement with each race.” Steady improvement can come in many forms, from learning how to do something new, such as sitting off the pace instead running on the lead, or dealing with an adversity such as overcoming traffic trouble.

A great example of overcoming traffic trouble was Machen, an interesting allowance winner who had generated some buzz with a flashy maiden win (replay) at Fair Grounds. Last weekend he followed that effort up with an impressive romp (replay) that included both a slow break and getting stuck behind a wall of horses. He split horses, as it’s often referred to when a horse pushes his or her way between horses, and went on to win by five lengths.

Also of note, Sour, the horse that ran second to Machen in his maiden race, came back with an impressive win of his own this week (replay). This is another factor highlighted by Haskin: “If you see a horse break his maiden impressively, and he appears to meet all the requirements of a Derby horse, be careful you don’t get too excited over him, because you really don’t know who he was beating. Most impressive maiden winners don’t duplicate that effort against winners. Watch how the horses he defeated perform in their next start.”

This week at the site we take a look at the Donn Handicap for older horses in our series Ten Things You Should Know. It’s not unusual for entrants of the Donn to have made their way through the Derby or Triple Crown trail as 3-year-olds, and this year is no different. You might remember I Want Revenge as the morning line favorite for the 2009 Kentucky Derby who was scratched out of the race the morning of the Derby. Not only was this is a disappointment for his connections, but it provided some high drama for jockey Joe Talamo on the TV series Jockeys! Giant Oak ran second in the the 2009 Illinois Derby, Ron the Greek won the 2010 Lecomte Stakes and Rule was the winner of the 2009 Delta Downs Jackpot and 2010 Sam F. Davis. The morning line favorite, Fly Down, won the 2010 Dwyer and ran second in the Belmont Stakes. Find out more about this year’s Donn Handicap.

News About the Contenders
Daily Racing Form: Ritchey’s patience with Elite Alex seems to be paying off
Daily Racing Form: J P’s Gusto switches target to Oaklawn’s Southwest
Daily Racing Form: Positive Response works for El Camino Real
Daily Racing Form: Risen Star next challenge for Machen
Daily Racing Form: Uncle Mo takes it slow and easy in first breeze at Palm Meadows
Daily Racing Form: Zito mulls what’s next for Holy Bull winner Dialed In
Daily Racing Form: McPeek 3-year-olds target Risen Star, Rachel Alexandra
Raceday 360 Wire: Posts about the Kentucky Derby
Raceday 360 Wire: Posts about the Kentucky Oaks

Upcoming Races – Feb 5

Las Virgenes Stakes
Saturday Feb 5, Race 4, Post Time 5:03 PM ET
Distance: 1 Mile | Class: Grade 1 | Condition: 3-year-olds fillies | Purse: $250,000 | Surface: Dirt

First run in 1983, the Las Virgenes Stakes has produced a respectable six Kentucky Oaks winners and one Kentucky Derby winner. The most recent Las Virgenes/Oaks winner was last year’s winner, current 3-year-old Champion Eclipse winner Blind Luck. 2007 Las Virgenes/Oaks winner Rags to Riches went on to win the Belmont Stakes in a thrilling stretch duel with 2007 & 2008 Horse of the Year Curlin. MC Hammer’s Oaktown Stable campaigned the 1991 Las Virgenes/Oaks winner Lite Light. 1988 Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors ran second to the eventual Oaks winner Goodbye Halo, while 1995 winner Serena’s Song bypassed the Oaks in favor of the Derby but finished a disappointing 12th. Winners Fran’s Valentine (1985) and Keeper Hill (1998) also went on to win the Kentucky Oaks.

This year’s edition features a lively and tough field, with the undefeated Turbulent Descent making her 3-year-old debut. Her last start came over the synthetic surface at Hollywood Park in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet (replay) in December and this will be her first start on dirt. She’s training well but will have to face a rapidly improving group, including two she beat in the Starlet.

May Day Rose’s only off-the-board finish came in the Starlet, but her next start in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel (replay) at Santa Anita was a wire-to-wire win. She was able to control the pace in the three-horse field but doesn’t look to be as lucky this time. Zazu, whose faced Turbulent Descent in the Starlet and the ungraded Moccasin Stakes, was a fast closing second by a neck to California Nectar in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez (replay) at Santa Anita last out. It looked as though Zazu was finally putting the pieces together in the Santa Ynez with the exception of gawking at the grandstand for almost the entire length of the stretch. Despite her youthful lack of focus, she was still closing with every stride on a speed favoring track.

Prior to winning the Santa Ynez, California Nectar won the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes for state-breds (replay), a race won by Evening Jewel last year on her way to finishing second by a nose to Blind Luck in the Kentucky Oaks (replay). Not only was California Nectar impressive, digging in when the distracted Zazu finally straightened out and came to her, but she also looked great after the race galloping back to the winner’s circle full of run.

Plum Pretty was third in the Santa Ynez and didn’t make much of an impact but looks to be training well. Bluegrass Chatter was second to May Day Rose in the Santa Ysabel and has also put in some solid works. Tiz the Route makes her first stakes start after a 16-1 maiden win last out in December at Hollywood Park. While her speed figures have shown solid improvement and her last work was an eye-catching 5-furlong bullet in 1:11, this is a tough spot to makes a stakes debut.

There’s plenty of speed in this race as May Day Rose, California Nectar, Plum Pretty and Tiz the Route all have wire-to-wire wins to their credit. Of these, California Nectar has proven she can sit off the pace and still win, but with this many front-runners, there could very well be a speed duel. This would set the race up well for Turbulent Descent, and it’s certainly her race to lose, but it also sets the race up for Zazu, Bluegrass Chatter and possibly California Nectar if she doesn’t throw down with May Day Rose. On the other hand, Santa Anita has been more than kind to speed horses, so perhaps the advantage goes to whoever gets and keeps the lead.

Zazu or California Nectar looks the most likely to pull the upset if Turbulent Descent doesn’t get the job done. Like favored Dancinginherdreams in the Forward Gal, she might need a race. If Zazu can improve upon her last effort and stay focused in the stretch, I think she can score her first graded win.

– Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
Race History – Wikipedia
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360

Race Recaps – Jan 29

After battling Third Chance (9-1) and Devilish Lady (10-1) on the lead for much of the early going, Grade 3 Old Hat runner-up Pomeroys Pistol (9-1) pulled away after rounding the final turn and firmly held off slight favorite Dancinginherdreams (6-5) to win the Grade 2 Forward Gal by nearly one length in 1:22.89. Longshot Evil Queen (82-1), who saved ground by hugging the rail throughout in last place, got up for third ahead of R Heat Lightning (6-5); both of them were over three lengths back of the two top. In contention early, Alexandra Rylee (14-1) faded to finish last behind Third Chance and Devilish Lady respectively.

For owner/breeder/trainer Amy Tarrant (perhaps best known for her Grade 1-placed Kiss The Kid) and 2008 Eclipse-winning apprentice jockey Paco Lopez, the win was their first in the Forward Gal, and the first Grade 2 victory for Tarrant with one of her homebred horses. Despite her sprinter sire, Pomeroys Pistol has some stamina in her dam line, through her damsire, Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Point Given. Other prominent family members include Harlan, sire of Grade 1 Donn Handicap and Florida Derby winner Harlan’s Holiday, and G1 Frizette runner-up Things Change.

First up since late October, Dancinginherdreams probably needed this run. This nearly-white Tapit filly could still be an Oaks contender; her damsire Menifee won the Grade 1 Haskell, and her second damsire Icecapade not only won the 9-furlong Grade 3 Nassau County Handicap, but was a half-brother to 12-furlong Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks victress Ruffian. However, she’ll need to run more cleanly, having wandered out into middle of the track today. Perhaps we might see blinkers next time to focus her better. Her hot-pink front bandages also concerned me a bit in the post parade, until I noticed she wore them in her two previous winning races.

R Heat Lightning endured a rough trip, causing her own problems by bumping Third Chance right out of the gate, and then running four wide much of the race before fading to fourth behind the solid but hardly spectacular Evil Queen. That said, notwithstanding her runner-up performance in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, she still appears to have distance limitations that seriously put in doubt her Kentucky Oaks aspirations. None of the others demonstrated enough here to warrant special notice.

Moving forward, next up for Pomeroys Pistol and perhaps others from this race is the 1-mile Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes on February 26.

– Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:
Race History – Wikipedia
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360
Triple Tiara – Hello Race Fans

The Nick Zito-trained Dialed In, making only his second career start, vaulted himself into the Kentucky Derby mix with a victory in the 1-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Jockey Julien Leparoux, in a characteristically patient ride, recovered from a poor start that left him nearly 15 lengths off the leaders and guided Dialed In to a visually impressive win under very little urging. Saving ground while running last for much of the race, Dialed In passed half the field before turning into the stretch and went by the rest of the field by the time he reached the sixteenth pole. He stopped the clock in 1:35.19. Sweet Ducky finished second, Gourmet Dinner third, and the post-time favorite Mucho Macho Man rounded out the superfecta.

Dialed In is the son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft and is owned by Bob LaPenta, who won the Florida Derby and finished second in the Kentucky Derby with Ice Box in 2010. Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito won the Kentucky Derby in 1991 (Strike the Gold) and 1994 (Go for Gin). Dialed In has the connections and pedigree to be a major player come the First Saturday in May.

– Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Further Reading:
Race History – Wikipedia
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360