Hello Race Fans! – April 9, 2011 Derby Prep Alert

April 9, 2011 Derby Prep Alert

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Hello Race Fans!

Much of the focus this weekend will be on the Wood Memorial, where current Derby favorite Uncle Mo makes his first and only graded stakes start prior to the May 7 Kentucky Derby. Mo is set with graded earnings, sitting atop the list after his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win in the fall, but the other two preps, the Santa Anita and Illinois Derbies, are a race for earnings with most of the solid contenders “on the bubble,” hovering right around the cut off at 20.

If you don’t normally get to watch racing you’re in luck on Saturday as several different places are offering live streaming of various race cards. The Daily Racing Form will live stream the entire Santa Anita Derby day race card starting at 3pm ET and the NTRA will live stream the Wood Memorial starting at 5:30 pm ET. Did you know that the five eventual Triple Crown winners raced in the Wood Memorial? Find out more in this week’s Ten Things You Should Know!

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Current Graded Earnings

Brisnet: Sway Away works for Arkansas Derby; Arienza expected in Fantasy
Brisnet: Uncle Mo arrives at Belmont Park
Brisnet: Blinkered Elite Alex drills gate work for Arkansas Derby
Brisnet: Registration open for $100,000 Derby Dream Bet
Brisnet: Dialed In to stay at Palm Meadows for a while
Brisnet: Santiva tops Blue Grass probables
Daily Racing Form: Premier Pegasus injured and out of Santa Anita Derby
Daily Racing Form: Final preps may not add clarity to Derby picture
Daily Racing Form: Blue Grass Stakes looking at Santiva as favorite
Daily Racing Form: Arkansas Derby: Elite Alex, J P’s Gusto look for more early speed
Daily Racing Form: Keeneland, Kentucky Derby the next frontier for Rosie Napravnik
Daily Racing Form: Arkansas Derby: Valenzuela will ride Sway Away
Daily Racing Form: 2011 Kentucky Derby: Under the Radar – Caleb’s Posse
Raceday 360 Wire: Posts about the Kentucky Derby
Raceday 360 Wire: Posts about the Kentucky Oaks

Upcoming Races – April 9

Ashland Stakes
Keeneland, Saturday April 9, Race 9, Post Time 5:23 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles | Class: Grade 1 | Condition: 3-year-old fillies | Purse: $400,000 | Surface: Synthetic

Since the Ashland Stakes was first run in 1936, 31 fillies who raced in the Keeneland fixture have gone on to win the Kentucky Oaks. In 1999, Silverbulletday took the Oaks after winning the Ashland in a record time of 1:41 3/5. In 2004, Ashado triumphed at Churchill following a second-place finish at Keeneland. In 2008, Proud Spell burnished the stakes’s stellar record with her Oaks win after running third in the Ashland. All three were named champion 3-year-old filly of their years.

The odds are good that this year’s Oaks winner lurks among the field of nine entered, including four graded stakes winners. Kathmanblu, winner of the Sweetest Chant (replay) over the Gulfstream turf in January and the Rachel Alexandra Stakes at the Fair Grounds in February (replay), is the likely favorite. As a juvenile, she won at Keeneland, scoring the Jessamine Stakes, run at the same distance as the Ashland, by four lengths.

Proven as she is, however, the race isn’t Kathmanblu’s to lose, not with Dancinginherdreams among the starters. The Tapit filly won her career debut at Keeneland last fall and then the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill (replay) in her second start. Coming off a second to R Heat Lightning (winner of last weekend’s Gulfstream Oaks) in the one mile Davona Dale (replay) and before that, to Pomeroy’s Pistol in the 7 furlong Forward Gal (replay), Dancinginherdreams takes her first shot at going two turns as a 3-year-old in the Ashland.

Both should be running late, as should Wyomia, who’s actually shown some versatility in her career, winning the 1 1/16 miles Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine gate-to-wire (replay). In her first start of the year and her first ever on dirt, Wyomia won the Suncoast at Tampa last month by a head after charging from the rear and splitting horses mid-stretch (replay).

Delightful Mary, second to Wyomia in the Mazarine, is also making her second sophomore start in the Ashland. Trainer Mark Casse hasn’t had much luck at Keeneland — according to DRF Formulator stats, he’s won only three races in 48 starts in the past five years — but Delightful Mary’s worst career finish was a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and she did win her 2011 debut in the OBS Championship Stakes at Ocala, so she’s certainly a contender, particularly for exotic wagers.

Also interesting as an exotic or longshot play is Excited, from trainer Todd Pletcher’s barn. Winless since her debut over the turf at Saratoga last summer, the Giant’s Causeway filly has finished second or third in all of her starts but one since, including the Sweetest Chant, in which she was 1 1/4 lengths behind Kathmanblu. Out of Path of Thunder, a stakes winner and full sister to 2000 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Spain, Excited will make her first start on a surface other than grass in the Ashland.

Bouquet Booth knows Keeneland, having won her maiden going seven furlongs at the track last fall. That was the first of three consecutive wins, including the Delta Downs Princess (replay) last November and the Silverbulletday (replay) at the Fair Grounds in January. Her streak ended in the Rachel Alexandra, in which Bouquet Booth was fourth. She figures to be in the mix early, stalking the pace if not setting it, but seems to lack the late kick that looks necessary to win this running of the Ashland.

– Jessica Chapel, Railbird

Further Reading:
Race History – Wikipedia
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360

Illinois Derby
Hawthorne, Saturday April 9, Race 7, Post Time 5:37 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Class: Grade 3 | Condition: 3-year-olds | Purse: $300,000 | Surface: Dirt

Since its inception in 1923 and through the end of the 20th century, the Illinois Derby wasn’t a Kentucky Derby prep race at all. Having been hosted at a variety of Illinois tracks, including the now defunct Sportsman’s Park and Aurora Downs, the Illinois Derby was positioned on the racing calendar either on the day of the Kentucky Derby itself or before the Preakness. That all changed in 2001 when the Illinois Derby was moved to four weeks before the Kentucky Derby, and it immediately made an impact as a prep race when the 2002 winner War Emblem went on to win the Kentucky Derby.

A first glance at the full field of 12 lined up for this year’s Illinois Derby doesn’t immediately start one thinking about the first Saturday in May. It’s a motley group that boasts one lone stakes winner, four maidens and four others who’ve never defeated winners of a race. This strange assortment of runners not typically seen in the same race makes for an intriguing betting affair.

That one lone stakes winner, Watch Me Go, exits a stunning 43-1 upset victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (replay) and looks to affirm that form here as the tepid 7-2 morning line favorite. Watch Me Go has never really run a poor race and has improved since stretching out to two turns.

El Grayling and The Fed Eased are both exiting graded stakes tries. The Fed Eased was the pacesetter in the Gotham (replay) before fading to fifth and should be in front once again here. El Grayling was eased in the Fountain of Youth (replay) after being a part of the early pace; the El Prado colt looks to rebound after some credible efforts going this same distance in first-level allowance tries versus good competition.

There’s more early speed signed on with the pair of Joe Vann and Lagoon of Diamonds exiting first-level allowance victories in front-running fashion. The well-thought-of Sour ships in from Fair Grounds off a one-length defeat to stablemate Left in a first-level allowance, and the extra furlong should suit this son of Lemon Drop Kid well here. Vouch for Victory is one of only four entries with multiple wins, and this is his second try at two turns after a flat effort in his initial two-turn try at Hawthorne.

A quartet of maidens is entered and two are particularly intriguing longshots. Zoebear ships in from Oaklawn having been consistently competitive at two turns in narrow misses, and Southern Sculptor ships from Santa Anita with two flat efforts in maiden tries but with a pedigree and running style that may suit the expected pace scenario.

Future Empire, Roman Flame and Smarter Than Ever round out the field.

– Chris Rossi, @o_crunk

Further Reading:
Race History – Wikipedia
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360

Wood Memorial
Aqueduct, Saturday April 9, Race 10, Post Time 5:48 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Class: Grade 1 | Condition: 3-year-olds | Purse: $100,000 | Surface: Dirt

The most recent winner of the Wood to go on to win the Kentucky Derby is Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000; last year’s winner, Eskendereya, was likely to have been the latest in a line of Wood winners to go to the Derby starting gate as the favorite, but an injury in the run-up to the Derby prevented him from starting at Churchill Downs; he was subsequently retired, and thus the Wood was the final start of his career. Other Wood winners who have been favored in the Derby are Easy Goer (who finished second to Sunday Silence in 1989), Damascus (1967), Bold Ruler (1957), and Native Dancer (1953). Notable horses that have captured the Wood/Derby double are Triple Crown winners Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), and Seattle Slew (1977).

This year’s renewal of the Wood Memorial is worth $1 million, thanks to a $250,000 contribution from Genting New York, currently constructing the casino at Aqueduct, slated to open in late summer. Unfortunately, $1 million apparently doesn’t buy what it used to, as even that hefty purse failed to attract much in the way of competition for Uncle Mo.

Uncle Mo comes to the race a perfect four-for-four; his most recent victory came in a public workout at Gulfstream otherwise known as the ungraded Timely Writer (replay). Last year’s 2-year-old champion won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by more than four lengths, and while the horses that finished behind him that day have proved subsequently disappointing, Uncle Mo has done nothing wrong in his four races and comes into this race a deserving Derby favorite.

While nine horses, many more than expected, entered the Wood, none is expected to mount a serious challenge to the Pletcher trainee. Of the total of 20 wins represented by the field, Uncle Mo has 25% of them; two entrants, Full of Scoundrels and Son of Posse, have only a maiden claiming win to their credit.

All of Uncle Mo’s wins have come on or close to the lead, and there’s no reason to expect that the son of Indian Charlie will run any differently tomorrow. While several others – Arthur’s Tale, Duca, and Norman Asbjornson – could be expected to set the pace, none, it seems, can mount a serious threat, or press Uncle Mo enough to force a pace collapse to set the race up for a closer like Toby’s Corner. Norman Asbjornson hung on for second in the Gotham (replay), but that would be about as close he’ll get this weekend.

Toby’s Corner, whose last start was a disappointing third in the Gotham, looked like a promising colt when he won the Whirlaway at Aqueduct in February, but given that he was beaten last out by Stay Thirsty, who was crushed in last weekend’s Florida Derby, it’s reasonable to think that he’s out of his league here. Daily Racing Form reports that he’ll add blinkers; he was distracted in the stretch run of the Whirlaway and rank in the Gotham.

It would appear that the nine horses that will show up tomorrow are running for place money, and as Hall of Fame trainer Allen Jerkens recently said, “The check for second place in a $1 million race is pretty good.” Unfortunately, the horse who will receive that check probably won’t be.

Then again… Allen Jerkens is also the man who twice beat Secretariat. Favorites, even prohibitive ones, don’t always win, so while you’re likely to see an impressive colt run his unbeaten streak to five, you don’t get to the winner’s circle without running the race, and hey, you never know…

- Teresa Genaro, Brooklyn Backstretch

Further Reading:
Race History – NYRA
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360

Santa Anita Derby
Santa Anita Derby, Saturday April 9, Race 10, Post Time 7:37 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Class: Grade 1 | Condition: 3-year-olds | Purse: $1,000,000 | Surface: Dirt

Considered the most important stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby in California, the Santa Anita Derby boasts springboarding 18 wins in classic races since its inception in 1935, including seven Kentucky Derby winners, seven Preakness winners and four Belmont winners. The 11th Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, used the Santa Anita Derby as his launching pad, as did Derby winners Sunday Silence (1989), Winning Colors (1988), Majestic Prince (1969), Lucky Debonair (1965), Determine (1954) and Hill Gail (1952). Despite the 22-year dry spell for Derby winners, 2009 Santa Anita Derby winner, Pioneerof the Nile (not a typo), ran a solid second to Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby.

In a full field rendition of the Santa Anita Derby, it was announced late Thursday that favorite Premier Pegasus would be scratched with an injury. Many of the contenders have met before, but you never who’s improving at just the right time. Maiden winner Midnight Interlude looks to be the speed, and one has to think that trainer Bob Baffert entered him to ensure that his stretch-running stablemate Jaycito has some pace to run at. Although he romped by 8 1/2 lengths last out (replay) and is by red-hot sire War Chant. At 20-1 he might be one of those rapidly improving types that’s at least worth a look in your exotics.

Much of the field looks to be of the stalking variety, but Comma to the Top could decide to challenge given his past running style. Ironically, Comma to the Top is the only entrant who doesn’t have to worry about earnings with a solid stakes foundation as a juvenile, but his connections have said that he won’t run in the Derby. He has yet to win as a 3-year-old but he could easily put it all together here.

Of the confirmed stalkers, Silver Medallion has a win at the distance from his last race, the El Camino Real Derby (replay). This will be his first race on dirt, but he’s been training well at Santa Anita since February and shouldn’t be discounted. Silver Medallion and Mr. Commons are both from top turf sires and Mr. Commons‘ last race, his first effort on dirt, was impressive as he ran down foes in the stretch (replay). He’s been training sensationally, but he’ll have to step up in this crowd, particularly because his pedigree is a bit more geared for the mile, but he has the potential to provide a break-out performance. Bench Points is another stalker with interesting potential; he ran an OK third in the San Felipe (replay) in his first foray in unrestricted races and has been working well with a particularly nice looking final work.

Anthony’s Cross, winner of the Robert B. Lewis (replay) in February, was able to clunk up for the win when pacesetter and favorite Tapizar failed spectacularly. Yes, Anthony’s Cross had to battle Riveting Reason, who’s off the Derby Trail with an injury, but Riveting Reason didn’t exactly turn out to be stiff competition, never passing horses after looking them in the eye. With entries like Mr. Commons and Bench Points at 12-1, it’s hard to take Anthony’s Cross at 6-1. Indian Winter disappointed last out after running well at Del Mar over the summer. I will certainly be happy if he turns out to be a late bloomer as I have a $2 future wager on him from Pool 1, but I am not holding my breath. Quail Hill is another stalker who would have to step up radically here after two lackluster stakes performances in the Lewis and San Felipe. He gets blinkers and put in a super fast work two back, but it seems as though sending him back to turf might be the move. And finally for the stalkers: Offlee Wild Boys seems like a “what the heck” entry with two poor efforts over dirt (out of his 12 races!).

This brings us to my current Derby horse and only stretch runner in the field, Jaycito. Last out in the San Felipe (replay), he was coming off a three-month layoff. He came five wide from 12 lengths off the pace to get second; he was seven lengths behind Premier Pegasus but he ran a solid race. He also gets the blinkers back on, which should help him focus.

Fans of California racing have to hope that this is the year that the Santa Anita Derby ends the 22-year dry spell of Santa Anita / Kentucky Derby winners. However it works out, this year’s installment is certainly a fun race with plenty of wagering interests!

- Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
Race History – Wikipedia
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360

Fantasy Stakes
Oaklawn Park, Sunday April 10
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles | Class: Grade 2 | Condition: 3-year-old fillies | Purse: $300,000 | Surface: Dirt

As the final Oaklawn stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, the Fantasy has a proud history as a prep race for the Kentucky Oaks, beginning with 1977 winner Our Mims who ran second in the Oaks en route to champion 3-year-old filly honors. Fantasy winners who went on to win the Oaks include Davona Dale (1979), Bold N Determined (1980), Heavenly Cause (1981), Tiffany Lass (1986), Lite Light (1991), Blushing K D (1997) and Rachel Alexandra (2009). Eight Belles won this before her second-place finish in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, while other winners who finished in the Oaks top three include Flying Partner (1982), My Darling One (1984), Rascal Lass (1985), Jeanne Jones (1988), Escena (1996), Classy Cara (2000), and High Heels (2007).

In 2010, only four fillies contested this race, but what a field! Winner Blind Luck subsequently nosed out Evening Jewel to win the Kentucky Oaks, while Fantasy runner-up Tidal Pool finished third. No Such Word followed up her third-place Fantasy finish with a runner-up performance in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan and topped her season by winning the Grade 1 Gazelle.

Entries for this year’s event close later on Friday, but the small field will likely include Joyful Victory, fresh off her dominating victory in the Grade 3 Honeybee (replay). Considering that performance plus her excellent form against R Heat Lightning last year, Joyful Victory is the obvious favorite and a serious Oaks threat moving forward. Lightly raced Arienza is thus far undefeated—and boasts a tremendous pedigree, by Giant’s Causeway out of champion distaffer and Horse of the Year Azeri. Still, this is a huge step up in class. Ramon Dominguez gets the mount.

Trainer Benard Chatters plans to enter both Honeybee runner-up Holy Heavens and Explosive Disco, last seen finishing third behind Arienza (replay). Other potential runners nominated include Santa Anita maiden winner Around the Twig; Grade 3 Santa Ysabel victress May Day Rose; and Alec’s Moon, last seen defeating seven male (and one female) competitors in the Portland Meadows Derby; this daughter of Grade 1 Hollywood Oaks runner-up Bello Cielo is campaigned by the same connections as Blind Luck.

- Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

Further Reading:
Race History – Wikipedia
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360

Race Recaps – April 2

Quick early fractions (23.06, 46.32, 1:10.97) did in early front-runner Triune, who had nothing left for the stretch drive and finished second last. A shrewd ride by Elvis Trujillo allowed 50-1 Salary Drive to save ground along the rail, but she was no match for R Heat Lightning, finishing third, four lengths behind late-closing runner-up Island School, the only other entrant besides R Heat Lightning that may be Oaks-bound. It was another 10 lengths back to the disappointing It’s Tricky, who was never in contention, and 7 lengths back to Kindersley. Jose Lezcano eased Beso Grande in the final eighth of a mile.

Admittedly everything went R Heat Lightning’s way in this race, as It’s Tricky turned out to be a huge disappointment (or perhaps just validated the opinion that her New York races were against inferior competition). In addition to the winner, Island School impressed with her ability to close on a track not favorable to that kind of effort. Salary Drive probably has a minor stakes victory in her future.

- Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure

As expected, the heavily favored Travelin Man won the Grade 2 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream on Sunday. Travelin Man settled just off the pace set by stablemate Razmataz; both colts are trained by Todd Pletcher. Travelin Man passed the pacesetter at the top of the stretch with very little urging from jockey John Velazquez. He won by two lengths and stopped the clock for seven furlongs in 1:21.94. Indiano finished second with Big Drama ending up third, just as he did in the Hutcheson. After the race, trainer Todd Pletcher expressed a desire to try a longer distance next time out for the 3-year-old son of Trippi. Dave Grening of Daily Racing Form speculated that his next start might come in the one mile Derby Trial at Churchill Downs on April 30.

- Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

With the possible exception of the colt who landed in the winner’s circle, the running of the Grade 1 Florida Derby Park did not go as expected. Dialed In, the second choice in the wagering, ran down a game longshot, Shackleford, to take the 60th running of Gulfstream Park’s marquee race. The colt everyone expected to set the pace, Flashpoint, broke poorly and never made the lead. While he seemingly lost all chance to win at the start, he ran well to finish fourth, an impressive performance considering his trip and lack of experience.

Post time favorite Soldat, who never relinquished the lead in his first two starts at Gulfstream in 2011, did not run a single step on the lead in the Florida Derby and never threatened the eventual winner. He finished a disappointing fifth. To Honor and Serve filled out the trifecta, seven lengths behind the top two finishers.

The winner, Dialed In, is trained by Nick Zito and owned by Robert LaPenta — the same connections as Ice Box, the winner of last year’s Florida Derby and second-place finisher in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Dialed In raced 14 lengths off the pace down the backstretch. He made up ground around the turn, passed the majority of the field in the stretch, and made a determined run to catch the 68 – 1 Shackleford before the wire.

According to Nick Zito, if all goes according to plan, Dialed In will make his fifth career start in the Kentucky Derby on May 7. He will likely be among the favorites for America’s biggest race.

- Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost