Hello Race Fans! – April 16, 2011 Derby Prep Alert

April 16, 2011 Derby Prep Alert

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Hello Race Fans!

Are you even more confused about the Kentucky Derby picture after last weekend? You’re not alone. But take heart; there are a few more preps to go!

While the internet spent the better part of the week in discussion about Uncle Mo’s lackluster performance in the Wood Memorial and what it means to Kentucky Derby 2011, it was announced on Thursday that he had an infection. He’s still being shipped to Churchill with the intention of running in the Derby. In a press release, trainer Todd Pletcher stated, “The vets also concluded that Uncle Mo is perfectly capable of returning to full training while the treatment continues,” and that he would work two more times before the Derby. Whether or not he starts remains to be seen. Catch up on all of last week’s racing action in our weekly roundup!

All of the Kentucky Oaks preps are complete but a former Oaks contender, Turbulent Descent, will race this weekend in the 7-furlong Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland. After her narrow defeat of Zazu in the Santa Anita Oaks, her connections decided that the 1 1/8 miles Oaks was likely too long for her. Tell a Kelly, last out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, will make her seasonal debut here as well.

In the coming weeks as the field for this year’s Derby comes into focus, we’ll be updating a few of our posts from last year on data mining for the Derby. In the meantime, we’ve rolled out a new version of our Beginners’ Corner! We’ve arranged it so that you can find information by activity or topic; for example, we’ve collected all our articles that we think will be most helpful to those planning on going to the track for the first time. Or, you can easily scan posts on handicapping or wagering. Take a look, and pass it on!

We’re also getting back to basics with a three-part series on handicapping foundations. Our first piece, Introduction to Class, is out today and gives you both an overview of class handicapping and examples of how to factor class into your own assessment of a race. In the coming weeks we’ll feature introductions to speed and pace handicapping. This week’s Ten Things You Should Know About features the Arkansas Derby.

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Current Graded Earnings
Brisnet: Uncle Mo has GI tract infection; to keep training for Derby
Brisnet: Uncle Mo judged sound
Brisnet: Toby’s Corner back home following Wood score
Brisnet: Lilacs and Lace bound for Oaks; Wyomia on the fence
Brisnet: Mucho Macho Man works bullet
Daily Racing Form: Santa Anita Derby’s top two resume training in California
Daily Racing Form: Arthur’s Tale out with injury
Daily Racing Form: Zito plans one more work for Dialed In
Daily Racing Form: Churchill Downs linemaker calls The Factor the Derby favorite
Daily Racing Form: Toby’s Corner’s owners revel in Wood Memorial upset
Daily Racing Form: Under the Radar – Arthur’s Tale
Daily Racing Form: Jaycito returns to track, on course for Lexington
Daily Racing Form: Who is Kentucky Derby contender Midnight Interlude?
Raceday 360 Wire: Posts about the Kentucky Derby
Raceday 360 Wire: Posts about the Kentucky Oaks

Upcoming Races – April 16

Blue Grass Stakes
Keeneland, Saturday April 16, Race 9, Post Time 5:45 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Class: Grade 1 | Condition: 3-year-olds | Purse: $750,000 | Surface: Synthetic

While illustrious winners of the Blue Grass Stakes in the past include Northern Dancer, Riva Ridge, Alydar and Spectacular Bid, the race in recent years has proven to be a bit more head-scratching, and not only because of the switch to a synthetic surface. Sinister Minister ran away with the 2006 race and turned in a Kentucky Derby dud shortly thereafter, while 2007 Derby champion Street Sense finished something of a dull second to synthetic specialist Dominican in their final Derby prep.

If this year’s Kentucky Derby were to be run on turf, I’d say this would be one of the deepest and most exciting prep races this year. There are certainly a few in here who seem capable of Derby greatness (particularly this year!), but the real fun of this race is that offers a reasonably well-matched field of 12 horses with a wide range of odds.

The favorite, Santiva (3-1), is one of those that seems more than capable of going on to do well in the Derby, and admittedly he’s in my current Derby top three. Last out he ran a game second to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds (replay), and he’s already run well over the surface at Keeneland. The speed of the race looks to be Joes Blazing Aaron (12-1), who’s coming in off of two consecutive wins, the last as the upset winner in the Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream on the turf (replay). He controlled an easy pace with no pressure, and it looks as though that could happen here as well.

The only two who might apply pressure to Joes Blazing Aaron seem to be King Congie and Wilkinson. King Congie, the second choice at 5-1, has won three in a row and looks to be in top form. Last out he finished first but was disqualified and placed third (replay). Wilkinson (6-1), winner of the Lecomte at Fair Grounds (replay), threw a clunker last in the Risen Star (replay). If he can get a better position early, he should fare better than last time.

Brilliant Speed (6-1), Twinspired (12-1), Praetereo (15-1) and Queen’splatekitten (12-1) are the entrants most likely to be the middle bunch stalking the pace. Brilliant Speed ran third and was placed second in the Hallandale Beach when King Congie was DQed. Twinspired, winner of the WEBN stakes, was six wide and moderately closing last out in the Spiral (replay). Praetereo comes in off a maiden win after six tries (replay) and Queen’splatekitten also ran in the Palm Beach.

The closers seem a bit more inspiring. Newsdad (20-1) has put in some decent works, and both he and Queens’platekitten were game in defeat by Joes Blazing Aaron. Willcox Inn (10-1) is making his second start of the year and looks likely to improve given his works and that he was gaining in his last race (replay) at a shorter distance. Crimson China (10-1) looks intriguing but is unlikely to get a fast enough pace. Perhaps if Joes Blazing Aaron gets some pressure from King Congie or Wilkinson, the race could set up for Crimson China, but Santiva looks like the one to beat. That said…I wouldn’t leave Joes Blazing Aaron off your tickets!

- Dana Byerly, Green but Game

Further Reading:
Race History – Wikipedia
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360

Arkansas Derby
Oaklawn Park, Race 11, Post Time 6:58 PM ET
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Class: Grade 1 | Condition: 3-year-olds | Purse: $1,000,000 | Surface: Dirt

While the Arkansas Derby has been around since 1936, it has had a resurgence since Smarty Jones won the race in 2004 on his way to winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown. In 2005, Afleet Alex won the Preakness and the Belmont after winning the Arkansas Derby. The only other colt besides Smarty Jones to win both the Arkansas and Kentucky Derby is Sunny Halo (1983). Arkansas Derby winners Temperance Hill (1980) and Victory Gallop (1998) went on to win the Belmont Stakes; Curlin (2007) and Pine Bluff (1992) won the Preakness Stakes. In 1984, the filly Althea set the stakes records in winning the Arkansas Derby but finished a disappointing 19th in the Kentucky Derby.

By reason of default, it looks like this year’s Arkansas Derby might turn out to be the most important Kentucky Derby prep of 2011. Uncle Mo’s loss in the Wood Memorial last Saturday in New York had everyone scrambling to find a new favorite for the big race at Churchill. The Factor appears to be the next in line. Of course, he will need to win the Arkansas Derby this weekend first.

The Factor looked super winning the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn in March (replay). It was his first start beyond seven furlongs and he led from gate to wire. Should he duplicate that performance in the Arkansas Derby, he will vault to the top of many Kentucky Derby lists.

The Arkansas Derby drew 13 entries including four graded stakes winners and seven colts who last raced in the Rebel Stakes. The top five finishers in the Rebel will run in the Arkansas Derby including the Bob Baffert-trained The Factor, the likely favorite on Saturday.

Caleb’s Posse, the 24-1 second place finisher in the Rebel, will return along with the Rebel’s show horse, ArchArchArch. Both were well beaten by The Factor and will need to show a great deal of improvement to turn the tables. J P’s Gusto, the lone Grade 1 winner in the field, will make his third start at Oaklawn this year. He finished second to ArchArchArch in the Southwest (replay) but ran a disappointing seventh in the Rebel. Local jockey Cliff Berry will pick up the mount on J P’s Gusto. It will be J P Gusto’s 11th career start and his fourth start over the dirt — two of the worst races in his career have come over a dirt surface.

Sway Away, a wiseguy colt who has appeared on more than a few Derby lists this season, will try to rebound off the worst start of his short career in the Rebel. After finishing a close second to The Factor in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita (replay) in his 3-year-old debut, he was restrained early in the Rebel Stakes by jockey Garret Gomez and finished nine lengths behind the winner. In the Arkansas Derby he will have veteran jockey Patrick Valenzuela in the irons for the first time.

Two runners exiting the Louisiana Derby (replay) are likely to get plenty of attention from the wagering public. Elite Alex was the second choice in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn with nothing but a single maiden win on his resume. He raced far off the pace and made up ground in the Southwest but ended up third. He ran a similar race in the Louisiana Derby: running as many as 15 lengths off the lead, he finished fourth just four lengths from the winner. Jockey Calvin Borel, who has won three of the last four Kentucky Derbies, will ride Elite Alex.

Nehro finished second to longshot winner Pants on Fire in the Louisiana Derby. He broke his maiden at Oaklawn in February and is an intriguing player for trainer Steve Asmussen. If he moves forward off his impressive stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby, he will be a major threat.

Brethren will try and get back to his winning ways. After starting his career three for three, including a win in the Grade 3 Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs (replay), he set a soft pace but could only manage to finish third as the heavy favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (replay). He is a half-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver. Like Super Saver, he is trained by Todd Pletcher. Eclipse-winning jockey Ramon Dominguez will be aboard.

Of the three entrants making their graded stakes debuts, Alternation has the strongest resume. He beat Elite Alex in an optional claiming race (replay) back in January and won an allowance race at a 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn in February. He was entered in the Rebel Stakes but lost his composure entering the starting gate and had to be scratched. The other first-time stakes entries are Dance City for trainer Todd Pletcher and Truman’s Commander, a recent maiden breaker (replay) making his first start for trainer Nick Zito.

- Kevin Martin, Colin’s Ghost

Further Reading:
Race History – Wikipedia
Posts at Raceday 360 Wire – Raceday 360

Race Recaps – April 9

Winning the Ashland Stakes was a gate-to-wire affair for longshot Lilacs and Lace. Sent to the front from the start, the 48-1 filly set moderate fractions of :24.04 and :47.95 through the first half. Challenged at the three-quarters mark by Delightful Mary and Excited, Lilacs and Lace drew away to a 1 1/2 lengths lead, then held off runner-up Wyomia by a length at the wire. Final time for the race was 1:42.73. Kathmanblu, the 2-1 favorite, finished third, beaten by 3 1/4 lengths. According to the Trakus data, the filly ran 67 feet more than the winner, which equals a loss of approximately 7 3/4 lengths. Second favorite Dancinginherdreams raced at the rear through the first half and finished last. Lilacs and Lace, who was making her second start of the year after finishing fourth in last month’s Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway, will make her next start in the Kentucky Oaks.

- Jessica Chapel, Railbird

Joe Vann stalked Lagoon of Diamonds for the first three-quarters of a mile and drew off without challenge to win the Illinois Derby by four lengths. The maiden Zoebear closed late to edge The Fed Eased for second.

Favorite Watch Me Go ran an unthreatening sixth.

It remains to be seen if any runners from this race will have an impact on the Kentucky Derby. Joe Vann, now a winner of three straight, is not a Triple Crown nominee, and even if he were a late nominee, he is currently on the outside looking in on the graded earnings list. Watch Me Go is currently 19th on the graded earnings list.

- Chris Rossi, @o_crunk

In the biggest upset so far on this year’s Derby trail, heavily favored Uncle Mo did not, as widely predicted, romp in the Wood Memorial. He finished third, while Toby’s Corner, winner of the Grade 3 Gotham, earned the right to head to Louisville in early May.

Uncle Mo took his expected place at the front as the field headed into the first turn, setting a moderate pace (:23.49, :47.98) with a short lead. Heading up the backside, where one might have expected Uncle Mo to assert some dominance over horses that on paper looked like no match for him, he remained in close contact with the field, and at the head of the stretch, he briefly extended his lead, without a trace of the speed and ease with which he’d won his prior four starts.

In the meantime, eventual winner Toby’s Corner had been shuffled back to last while saving ground along the rail, ranging up as jockey Eddie Castro tipped him outside as they came around the final turn. Encountering traffic trouble, Castro moved his horse a path outside, found a hole, and Toby’s Corner surged to the front, passing a tiring Uncle Mo, who finished third, and Arthur’s Tale steps before the wire.

Though trainer H. Graham Motion admitted that he and owner Dianne D. Cotter hadn’t previously considered sending Toby’s Corner to the Kentucky Derby, that race is now squarely in their sights. Following the win on Saturday afternoon, Toby’s Corner jumped to fourth place on the graded earnings list, guaranteeing him a spot in the starting gate; according to Motion, the horse will train at his home base of Fair Hill before shipping to Kentucky the week of the race.

- Teresa Genaro, Brooklyn Backstretch

If you read our preview of the Santa Anita Derby, the outcome of the race should not have been that big of a surprise, as we noted that both Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top looked interesting.

Comma to the Top got back to his front-running ways and was game in defeat to up-and-comer Midnight Interlude. According to trainer Peter Miller, Comma to the Top is back in consideration for the Derby after he returned to form. “He looked super and he ate up. He was bouncing around this morning and he jogged down the road like a Marine.”

Perhaps the most interesting thing about winner Midnight Interlude was that he was able to successfully change his previous running style of setting the pace. This time he sat behind the speedy Comma to the Top and chased him down in the stretch after overcoming a little traffic trouble. All and all, he did exactly what you want to see a horse at this stage do and we’ll see him next in the Derby.

Anthony’s Cross, who ran a lackluster fifth, which also should have been no surprise based on our preview, might make his next stop in the Preakness, according to trainer Eoin Harty. There was no specific goal stated for Silver Medallion, who finished fourth, except that he would ship to Kentucky, base of trainer Steve Asmussen. No word on what’s next for third place finisher Mr. Commons.

Will Midnight Interlude be the first Santa Anita Derby winner in 22 years to also win the Kentucky Derby? Stay tuned.

- Dana Byerly, Green but Game

A striking gray, Joyful Victory may look nothing like Rachel Alexandra, but her dominating presence on the track certainly reminds me of the champion, especially the way she has thus far this year distanced her competition. However, for trainer Larry Jones, she evokes comparison to his great Derby runner-up Eight Belles – and not just due to her color: “I was looking at her the other day and I said I know she was born the year she died, but it’s almost like she consumed her. It’s like she’s come back.”

- Valerie Grash, Foolish Pleasure