R10 Churchill Downs (G2) – Clearly Now

R11 Turf Classic (G1) – Beach Patrol

R12 Kentucky Derby (G1) – Always Dreaming

:-)

]]>Sorry for the confusion! The points I refer to are the total points each horse earned in the Kentucky Derby prep races — the contenders are listed in order of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard

The numerical values in the sheet (the 2s and 1s in the nine furlong prep and final prep columns) are meaningless as math — I use them to visually distinguish between winning (2) and finishing in the money/within three lengths of the winner (1).

In the key preps column, however, the number there (from 1-3) is the actual number of key preps a contender started in. This is a little bit of a dated column that could use some revising — “key preps” derives from some research I did about 10 years and some other work done by Kennedy’s Corridor, Kevin Martin at Colin’s Ghost, and the DRF handicappers — but it basically indicates that they started in races that generate both significant numbers of Kentucky Derby starters and more importantly, starters who win or finish in the money in the Derby. These are mostly the races you’d expect — the G1s and other major preps — and the points system has changed things up a bit.

Hope this explanation helps. Thanks for reading!

]]>I came across your article and found your Derby handicapping systems discussion interesting. I’m having trouble understanding the points total in your Railbird: Kentucky Derby Prep and Historical Criteria worksheet–and in particular your 2017 worksheet. Some fields have a numerical value, others have an “X” and some fields are blank. How did you account for these various values to come come up with your ranking of contenders listed in order of points.

Thanks for your comment

Joe